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TGS downgrades its offshore wind energy installation forecast to 2035
globally by 2030, increasing to 39 GW by 2035. These figures are down 1.8 GW and 6.4 GW, respectively, compared to the analysis from Q4 2022, and down 3.7 GW and 8.7 GW from Q2 2022.
‘The reduced momentum in installation is primarily due to lower-than-expected rates of securing offtake contracts and permits, resulting in greater volume shifting post-2030. Of the forecast 12.4 GW by 2030, 6 to 7 GW is projected to be operational, while the remainder is expected to be under construction.’ but at a slower rate than recent projections showed due to increasing supply and capital costs.
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Using project data to predict LCOE, TGS predicts energy costs for floating wind will be around $94-110/MWh by 2030 (for projects starting offshore installation), $77/MWh by 2035, and $55/ MWh by 2040 owing to scale economies, decreasing capital costs, technology innovations and longer lifetimes.
TGS’ forecast for installation of floating offshore wind energy by 2030 and 2035 has been adjusted downwards for the second time in 12 months, representing a 25% downgrade year-on-year for its 2030 outlook.
The company’s biannual Floating Offshore Wind Report predicts that 12.4 GW of potential floating wind capacity will be operational or under construction
According to TGS’s updated Floating Market Attractiveness Index published in the report, the UK remains the world’s most attractive floating wind market, followed by Norway, South Korea, the US and Japan.
The report also shows that floating wind’s Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Capex for both existing and future projects is expected to decline over time
TGS|4C Offshore’s director of research Richard Aukland said: ‘Floating wind holds a lot of promise, but delivery is challenging. Offtake visibility is currently limited, and regulatory uncertainty is high in key emerging floating markets. There are many countries whose processes have not yet been tested and matured through bottom-fixed wind. Consequently, we don’t expect the build-out of floating wind to scale significantly until after 2030.’
