Scottish Salmon Producers’ Organisation
BY HAMISH MACDONELL
A happier New Year It may seem grim right now, but there is a lot to look forward to in 2021
A
s one of my friends put it in their Christmas card message: “1349 was even worse, of course, so we have that to be grateful for.” An exaggeration perhaps but, given what everyone has gone through in 2020, perhaps only a slight one. We haven’t had the full 2020 export figures for Scottish salmon yet but we know they are down, significantly, on the year before. Our members have exported less at lower prices than they wanted. They have had to change working practices, introduce new measures and add extra layers of precautions to protect their workers. But, as they say, that was then and this is now and I believe that 2021 has the potential to be as good as 2020 was bad. We hold fairly regular catch-up calls with our international counterparts from trade bodies across the world. As 2020 progressed, one of the defining features of these meetings, for me, was the increasingly pessimistic forecast for food service outlets in the United States. In April, we were told official estimates suggested 10-15% of restaurants and food outlets would close and not reopen. By June it was 20-25% and by September the estimate had reached 30%. It may well be that, by the time a final reckoning is done, a third of all food outlets in the US will have closed because of the pandemic. They may or may not ever reopen but, here’s the thing: if they don’t reopen, then someone else will. That is because the recovery, when it comes, will be big. There are signs that consumer trends in 2021 will be defined by two overlapping factors: first, a sizeable proportion of the population that has money to spend; and second, people who are desperate to get out and do the things they could not do in 2020. It will take the roll-out of the vaccines, of course, but consumers everywhere are so keen to return to even a semblance of normality that the recovery, when it comes, is likely to be long and sustained. Those restaurateurs who have managed to weather the Covid storm and who are still in business will thrive when the customers return –
26
Hamish MacDonnell.indd 26
and return they will, in numbers – while those who have gone under will soon be replaced by others ready to capitalise on the post-pandemic spending spree. According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, UK households built up an average of £7,100 in savings through 2020 simply because normal activities, from commuting to holidays, from going out to eating out, were curtailed. So there is every indication that food service will not just get back on its feet in 2021, but it will thrive, all over the world. Not only that, but the recovery is likely to be steady and sustained, not explosive. That is because the roll-out of the vaccines will take months, starting with the elderly and the vulnerable and moving down through the age bands. As more and more people in work and with disposable incomes get the vaccine, so spending on eating out will increase. But there is one more resumption of old habits we can look forward to in 2021 – the return of international travel. As is now very well known, most Scottish salmon exports to distant markets are sent in the bellies of passenger planes but, with most passenger flights grounded, it became difficult – and expensive – for our producers to get fish to those markets in 2020. You ask most British families what they are looking forward to, when they get the vaccine and most will say – going on holiday.
Above right: One day soon we will be eating out again
www.fishfarmermagazine.com
11/01/2021 14:54:18
