Letter from America Peter Grimes of VOWS magazine is seeing if not light at the end of the tunnel, then at least glow for bridalwear retailers
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his past nearly year-long period of political strife, economic uncertainty and social upheaval has added considerable stresses to US bridesto-be… as it has for UK brides clearly facing similar circumstances and worries. And as for both countries, this turmoil will not soon end, certainly not by the end of an election cycle, nor prior to the beginning of the 2023 bridal buying season. Boutique owners (and their employees) are feeling the impact of this added stress and worry, both personally and in fulfilling or exceeding the demands of their over-stressed-out brides. Adding weight to these worries is the near non-stop financial predictions by assorted banks, brokers and government agencies predicting the direst of possibilities, combined with recent surveys
indicating that a high percentage of US and UK consumers are extremely worried about the possibility of a recession. While worst case scenarios may be accurate for specific segments of the economy, I don’t believe that is the case for bridal retail… not that I think bridal is recession proof, but because historical cycles have shown that bridal is recession resistant. In the short term we may see a softening of the retail “sweet spot” price point, and a possible reduction of the number of participants in the wedding party, but I don’t anticipate a noticeable decline in the number of weddings in 2023-2024. Two reasons for this view: 1. An admittedly optimistic review of wedding and marriage data for the Great Recession years of 2007-2009, considered the most significant downturn in the US economy since
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the Great Depression, which is often cited as the most catastrophic economic event of the 20th century. A review of those numbers and years reveals small percentage declines in the number of weddings during that two-year period. Specifically, 2007 recorded 2.2 million weddings; 2008 showed a 1.8% decline in the number of weddings to 2.16 million; 2009 declined an additional 3.7% to 2.08 million, and 2010 showed an increase in weddings to 2.1 million. 2. The resilient nature of bridal retail, which has adapted to (and many times lead) a changing consumer throughout its history. In more recent terms, boutiques proved their resilience as they adjusted, adapted and pivoted during the COVID years, emerging from those near total shut downs stronger and more consumer centric.
