ANALYSIS
To develop this ATP, a thorough analysis of existing conditions in Menifee was conducted that involved GIS analyses, fieldwork, community outreach, and meetings with City staff to gather data and input. GIS-specific analyses involved processing datasets from the City and open source databases, such as the Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System (SWITRS) and combining them to reveal patterns and relationships within Menifee.
Bicycle and Pedestrian Collision Analysis Bicycle and pedestrian collision data were obtained from the Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System (SWITRS) collision dataset managed by the California Highway Patrol (CHP), which captures reported bicycle-vehicle, pedestrian-vehicle, and bicycle-pedestrian collisions that resulted in injury or property damage in Menifee in the five-year period of 2014 through 2018. Collision density and locations data are displayed in Figure 2-5: Bicycle and Pedestrian Related Collisions on the following page. Collisions on off-street paths are not reported in the dataset. It is important to note that collisions involving bicyclists and pedestrians are known to be under-reported, and therefore such collisions are likely under-represented in this analysis. In these past five years, there were forty-seven bicycle-related collisions and fifty-three pedestrian-related collisions, ten of which resulted in fatalities. The bulk of both collision types resulted in visible injury or complaint of pain (seventy-nine percent), with twenty-one percent resulting in severe injury or death.
To help define study focus areas, a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) model was created to reveal relationships between the many factors analyzed. A
Attractors are essentially activity centers known to attract bicyclists and pedestrians. Examples are schools, transit stops, and shopping centers. Generators are developed from demographic data and address potential pedestrian and bicyclist volumes based on how many people live and work within the study area. Examples of generators are population density, employment density, primary mode of transportation to work, and vehicle ownership. Barriers are features likely to discourage or detract people from bicycling or walking. These are generally physical limitations, such as areas with high numbers of bicycle- related collisions, high vehicle volumes and speeds, and missing sidewalks. The resulting map displayed in Figure 2-6: Bicycle and Pedestrian Propensity Model was employed to aid in developing general recommendations and to help select priority projects described in the following chapter. When comparing the input from public workshops, stakeholders, and project surveys, there was a correlation between the high propensity areas for bicycling and walking with input provided. The bicycle and pedestrian propensity map shows the highest likely use along major corridors, especially along Newport Road, McCall Boulevard, Bradley Rd, Holland Road, Menifee Road, Murrieta Road, Goetz Road, Heritage Lakes Drive, Antelope Road, and La Piedra Road. However, bicycle and pedestrian propensity is not only concentrated on the major roadways, it also permeates into local streets that people tend to use frequently.
In these past five years, there were 47 bicycle-related collisions and 53 pedestrian-related collisions.
CHAPTER 2 » Existing Conditions & Analysis
Bicycle and Pedestrian Propensity Model
Bicycle-Pedestrian Priority Model (BPPM) was developed, considering all of the previously discussed analysis inputs, to establish where bicyclists and pedestrians are most likely to be, either currently or if improvements were to be made. The BPPM is comprised of three submodels: Attractor, Generator, and Barrier Models. These three sub-models are then combined to create the composite Bicycle-Pedestrian Priority Model.
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