8.4
Commercial centre capacity gap assessment
The following section undertakes an assessment of the capacity for each commercial centre to accommodate the projected growth in demand under several development scenarios. If all lots were developed to their maximum theoretical potential, a total of around 800,000sqm of floorspace could be accommodated in commercial centres across the LGA. Subtracting the current amount of floorspace (including residential) from this theoretical maximum leaves a residual capacity of around 493,000sqm. This is sufficient to accommodate the projected demand under each scenario with a residual capacity of between 429,000sqm and 464,000sqm. The realisation of this maximum theoretical development potential is highly unlikely. This is because undertaking the capacity assessment with the primary consideration being the capacity under existing planning controls cannot anticipate individual site factors. Land space utilisation requirements, environmental constraints, development feasibility, and lot configuration, on a site-by-site basis, would influence practical capacity. To better understanding the likely development capacity of Clarence Valleys commercial centres two development capacity scenarios were tested. These scenarios are:
Vacant land capacity: this scenario assumes redevelopment of current vacant land stocks at an FSR of 1:1. Vacant land being used for parking or those which were too small or irregular to redevelop were excluded. Please note that development at an FSR of 0.75:1. Redevelopment capacity: this scenario applies the same conditions as per Scenario 1 above. The scenario further assumes redevelopment of each lot to an FSR of 0.75:1. Sites excluded in this scenario included: o
Contained accommodation or residential space
o
Grafton Shoppingworld and Yamba Village shopping centres
o
Sites where the resulting uplift in floorspace was less than 50%. That is the amount of net additional space on the site was less than half of that already existing.
Under the vacant land capacity scenario there is additional capacity across the centre of around 51,000sqm. This increases to around 142,000sqm of additional capacity under the redevelopment scenario. This implies there exists enough capacity across the LG, however at the centre level, this may not be the case. Table 33 takes the estimated net additional capacity under each capacity scenario and for each centre and subtracts it from each centres net demand in floorspace. This this, the following was found: Under the vacant scenario | there was sufficient residual capacity across the LGA under the low and medium scenario of between 7,130sqm to 22,240sqm. However, under the high demand scenario there was a shortfall in capacity of around 12,480sqm. Closer examination at the centre level highlights several centres which do not have sufficient capacity to accommodate their identified demand. Of note are the centres of Coutts Crossing NC, Grafton town centre, Yamba town centre, Yamba village. additional capacity could be achieved in the larger towns through the planning framework resulting in higher potential development yields. Under the redevelopment scenario, there is sufficient residual capacity across the LGA of between 119,870sqm to 154,580sqm. Compared to the vacant capacity scenario, there is additional capacity in most centres, with most having sufficient capacity to accommodate the projected demand in floorspace. The exception to this are the three centres of Angourie NC, South Grafton NC Federation St and Minnie Water NC and Grafton town centre and Yamba town centre under the high demand scenario. The shortfall in floorspace for these centres is considered minimal and would be redirected into nearby centres or achieved through intensification of development on key sites.
P22016 Clarence Valley Employment Lands Background
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