234 I PART 2 I SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS
[ Figure 5.2 ] Electricity production and installed capacity by source, 2019 Annual electricity production 2019
Installed generation capacity, mid 2019 2,8%
0,5% 1,4% 9,4% 18,8%
34,6%
16,6%
41,6% 37,7%
36,9%
Coal
Hydro
Gas
Renewable
Import
Source: GIZ energy support programme, 2019.
of electricity, and on hydropower production. To assess the impacts on the whole energy system, we shall develop several scenarios for comparison. We start with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario that outlines future energy consumption, assuming no impacts from climate changes. Then, under the Viet Nam climate change and sea level rise scenarios (hereafter referred to as climate change scenario), typical studies on the impacts of climate change on electricity demand and hydropower plants are used to develop scenarios for climate change impacts (CCI). In this study, the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) is used as a tool to analyse and quantify the impacts of climate change on Viet Nam’s energy system. LEAP is flexible and can be used to create models of different energy systems based on available data, ranging from bottom-up, end-use techniques, to top-down
approaches. Moreover, LEAP is also used to evaluate costs and benefits for different policy strategies on both demand and supply sides, to deal with the impacts of climate change on the energy system in Viet Nam. This chapter is structured as follows. Sections 2 and 3 provide a separate assessment of climate change’s impacts on electricity demand and hydropower production, respectively. Section 4 presents a comprehensive (integrated) evaluation of the energy system under different scenarios. In Section 5, several measures are proposed with associated social costs and benefits. Conclusions and recommendations are in Section 6.
