b) Security Dilemma: United States – Ukraine – Russia

SECURITY DILEMMA:

UNITED STATES – UKRAINE – RUSSIA

P O R : M Ó N I C A Á L V A R E Z C U E V A S

E S T U D I A N T E D E L A L I C E N C I A T U R A E N R E L A C I O N E S I N T E R N A C I O N A L E S P O R P A R T E D E L A U N I V E R S I D A D A N Á H U A C M É X I C O E N 8 ° S E M E S T R E .

C O R R E O : M O N I C A 9 9 A L V A R E Z @ G M A I L . C O M I N S T A G R A M : @ M O N I C A _ A L C U

Abstract: The Ukrainian-Russian crisis has become the most latent international event of 2022, with a rapid escalation in the tension of relations between the main international actors involved such as Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and the European Union. However, it must be taken into account that the crisis has been manifesting itself since March 2021 as Russian troops mobilizations have occurred on the Russian-Ukrainian border. In order to have a complete picture of the causes of the present conflict, antecedents for decades must be mentioned, such as the creation of NATO, the waves of expansion of this organization, and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula, the actions of international actors in this month, such as state visits, press conferences and symbolism, hoping that it will be complete enough to try to understand an international crisis and how it would impact the international and national security of each of the actors in a globalized and interdependent world.

Key words: Crisis, Ukraine, Russia, European Union, NATO, France, Nord Stream 2, Pipelines, Biden, Putin, Macron.

heT year 2022 has begun with a great threat to the international and national security of the countries involved in the Ukrainian-

Russian crisis, and despite having escalated into conflict in

February of this year, the background of the main international actors of the 20th century must be taken into account, the United

States and Russia, as well as their positions in the current crisis. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO onwards) is an intergovernmental military alliance formed on April 4, 1949, which aims to be a collective defense system for the countries that are part of the treaty (Government of Spain, 2015). The main clause of said organization is to comply with article 5, which stipulates that an attack against one of the allies will be considered an attack against all the allies. Having the knowledge of the year of creation, emphasis can be placed on the international scene of that time, the Cold War, an ideological conflict between the West, led by the United States, and the East, led by the former USSR.

The Warsaw Pact, being NATO's counterpart in the USSR block, was created on May 14, 1955, however, with the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, the Pact was dissolved (Sadurní, 2021). Despite this, NATO remained one of the most important international defense organizations, as its main objective remains the protection of allies, regardless of the threat.

NATO, having the 12 original member countries United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Portugal, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, has taken into account the threats that a globalized world presents for the international security, so it has had 7 expansions, in 1952, 1955, 1982, 1990, 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2017, having now 28 member countries, Greece, Turkey, Germany, Spain, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia and Montenegro (The World Order, 2020).

Another important event that should be remembered is the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, becoming a diplomatic crisis similar to the current one. At that time, the president of the Russian Federation (Russia onwards), Vladimir Putin, described the transfer of Ukraine from Russian provinces during the Bolshevik revolution, as well as the handover of Crimea, which was made in 1954 without consulting the people, as a "theft from Russia" , which had been done without even complying with the legal formalities required by the Constitution of the time, emphasizing the historical ties between Ukraine and Russia (Fernández, 2014). In 2014, with the end of the mandate for the overthrow of the fourth president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, protests arose by pro-Russian groups concentrated in the Crimean peninsula, these groups protested against the new government in Kiev, as well as the desire to reintegrate with Russia, and on March 6, 2014, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea announced the call for a referendum on March 16 which would decide a reintegration with Russia, and finally coming to be favorable to the pro-Russian groups in Crimea. Putin accepted the decision and defended the legality of the referendum, being incorporated on March 18, 2014, together with Sevastopol (Añorve, 2016). This action by Russia was received and rated negatively by western countries, however, accepted and carried out in accordance with international law. With this, it can be understood that western countries, being united by NATO, have continued to expand towards the east every time a western country was added to the treaty.

After understanding the main background, it is important to know the current positions of the main countries involved, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. Vladimir Putin has been president of Russia since 2012, having a previous presidential mandate from 2000 to 2008, being the president who has remained in power the longest since the dissolution of the USSR, known for his extreme concern towards international security. (Portafolio, 2018). Russia is part of the Security Council of the United Nations Organization, the Group of the 20, the Group of the 8, the United Nations Organization and the World Health Organization, attending all summits, conferences, and meetings, demonstrating that an effort has been made to build a new image for Russia abroad, as a nation committed to the well-being of international and regional security.

The United States, according to The Manifest Destiny, is the exporter of democracy and the free market, the country that represents the values of the West and who exports them to maintain a globalized and interdependent world that ensures international peace. Biden has been in charge of demonstrating the strength of the United States in the international system from 2009 to 2017, being vice president of Barack Obama, and becoming president in 2021 (Ortíz de Zárate, 2021). He has shown his commitment to international security, returning to the United States as soon as possible to the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Agreement, as well as handling the Covid-19 pandemic in his country with impeccable leadership, and showing support for the initiative to donate vaccines to various countries.

The Ukrainian-Russian crisis is explained by the security dilemma, which is a situation in which the efforts of States to improve their security tend, unintentionally, to increase the insecurity of others, since each one interprets as their own actions as defensive and those of others as potentially threatening (Herlz, 1950). Now, the discrepancy begins with the waves of expansion of NATO towards Eastern Europe, of which Putin mentioned: "The United States promised not to move an inch east” (Irungaray, 2022). What the Russian president explains about the escalation of the current crisis is quite simple, existing a national security dilemma for Russia since the waves of NATO expansion show an advance of its bases in territories near the Russian borders.

The escalation of the conflict begins with Ukraine's desire to join NATO, which would represent a serious strike to Russia, not only because it shares a border with that country, but also because of the location of the Crimean Peninsula, which is between Ukraine and Russia, and by taking part of NATO, could accept bases of the organization on their territory, destabilizing the geopolitical balance in the region. In the words of the Russian president: How would Americans feel if we put our missiles on the Canada-US border or the Mexico-US border? (Irungaray, 2022).

By becoming an international crisis, various international actors have participated to find an action that causes the de-escalation of the conflict. At the beginning of the month, when the escalation of the conflict emerged, the visit of the Argentine president, Alberto Fernández, on February 2, in Russia was to

thank the sale of Sputnik vaccines at the beginning of the pandemic, when the doses were scarce and the producing countries covered them for their population, however, a comment took by surprise, as it was the Argentine president who offered the Russian president that Argentina be the gateway to Latin America; After a 24-hour visit, the Argentine president left for China to continue his tour (Mabromata, 2022). The destinations of Alberto Fernández's diplomatic tour can be understood as a curious movement, with a complex global context. The European Union (EU hereinafter), as a diplomatic agent, spoke out in the face of the crisis, through the EU's high representative for foreign policy, Josep Borrel, who mentioned: "If you want to go to a conference on security in Europe, there is to expand the number of actors, not only the US and Russia, and the issues to be discussed, not only those that interest Moscow, " (Cuesta, 2022a). Being a correct comment, since, by leaving behind a bi-polar international system, with the main actors being the states of the USA and Russia, international conflict resolutions become matters of a multipolar system, not only with various states, but also other actors, just as important, such as international organizations, such as the European Union and the United Nations.

Another important international actor is Germany, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized in the media at the beginning of the crisis for seeming elusive about German foreign policy towards Russia and Ukraine. However, he took a turn when making a state visit to the United States on February 7, where Biden reiterated the security commitment that the United States has with the European Union in the face of the current crisis and touched on a very important issue, energy (America Voice). According to British Petroleum (2020) annual report, 41% (more than a third of the total) of the gas imported by the European Union comes from Russia, on the other hand, Russia sells 85% of its gas reserves to the EU There is a clear dependency on Russia, which is satisfied through the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. During the press conference, Biden stated that: “If Russia invades, that means tanks and troops cross the Ukraine border again, then there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2, we will put an end to it” , while Scholz remained silent on this idea, only affirming support for the plan of a unified Europe with the support of the United States (Rogers, 2022). This demonstrates the clear importance of effective diplomacy, since, in the event that it is impossible to de-escalate the conflict, the energy dependence of the European Union on Russia would make it difficult to stop an invasion.

That same day, President Emmanuel Macron made a state visit to Russia, which was shown by the media as an impressive symbolism, this is due to the length of the table in which the leaders began the conversation, which was six meters long (Arciniegas, 2022). The media took this as a symbol of distance between Russia and Europe, but Russia denied the idea, since the distance was because the French president had chosen not to take a PCR test, which, according to Russian protocol, it was requested (John et al, 2022). However, the only alternative would be to change the dependency Europe has with Russia, now being with the United States, but by continuing to be dependent, Europe will have to become a secondary actor, having to support the decisions of the country who provides the energy.

The last press conference on the crisis was on February 10, which was given by Serguie Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, and Liz Truss, UK foreign secretary, which was not beneficial for the de-escalation of the conflict. In this Lavrov commented “I am disappointed with our conversations that seemed more like the dialogue of a mute with a deaf. We seem to hear, but we don't listen. " This was because there was a bad communication in the location of the Russian troops, which are in Russian territory, and that Truss thought that they were in Ukrainian territory (Cuesta, 2022b).

Lastly, there is an escalation in the conflict with Russia's recognition of areas controlled by Ukrainian forces, the separatists republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, after the promulgation of the independence of these areas in 2014, the Ukrainian forces recovered part of both regions, in a conflict of almost eight years that has left more than 14 thousand dead (El Financiero, 2022). This action of Russia represents a break in the Minsk Protocol, reached between Russia and Ukraine in 2014, with the aim of ending the conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian fighters that happened that year in eastern Ukraine (BBC News Mundo, 2022). Putin assured that the so-called Minsk Agreements no longer exist, being mentioned as an alternative appealed by President Macron in recent days to find a solution to the crisis, however Putin added that there is nothing left to fulfill, blaming to Kiev and not to its

government for not complying with them (Arcienegas, 2022b). This can be taken as an omen, in which the intentions of Russia are known, which does not have to mean an invasion, but the meaning that they are prepared for any outcome.

Conclusion

The Ukrainian-Russian crisis remains latent and dangerous for all international actors, however, knowing the background and the security dilemma, we can realize that the current crisis differs from the previous discrepancies between the United States and Russia, since Russia must ensure the national security of its country, taking the waves of NATO expansion as offensive movements, while the United States does not see it that way, since it invites Ukraine to join NATO so that it continues existing solidarity and interdependence that characterizes the European Union and NATO. For this reason, we can rely on the diplomacy of international leaders, recognizing the dependence of a world as globalized as it is in the middle of 2022, so we can hope that the crisis will be resolved through dialogue, without becoming a war like those of the 20th century. For this reason, the hard work carried out by leaders such as Biden, Putin, Macron, Scholz, Borrel must be appreciated, who in the midst of a crisis continue to opt for dialogue, demonstrating with actions that a war is not the answer to any difference between countries, and that today the international system is extremely interdependent, in politics, economy and geopolitics, what affects one, affects all of them, preferring an optimal resolution of the conflict.

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