2010. AASTA ERAKODSELT KUUM SUVI EESTIS JA SELLE MÕJU RAHVASTIKU SUREMUSELE
The extraordinarily hot summer of 2010 in Estonia and its impact on all-cause mortality
Kaidi Rekker MA Artikkel Tartu Ülikoolis tervishoiu instituudis kaitstud magistritööst/ Master’s thesis Abstract The present study describes the extraordinarily hot summer of 2010 in Estonia and its impact on population mortality. The objectives were: to analyse the meteorological conditions in the summer of 2010 and compare them with the conditions in the summer months in previous years (2007–2009), to describe heat waves in Estonia during the summer 2010, to provide an overview of total mortality in the summer period 2010 and its differences from the reference period and to calculate the excess mortality rate in the summer 2010 and during the heat waves. The study is based on the meteorological data from Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute’s (EMHI) and the mortality data for the study and the reference period obtained from the Estonian Causes of Death Registry. The study period involved summer months (June–August) in 2010. The reference period was defined as the summer months in previous 3 years (2007–2009). The study area included 9 counties in Central and East Estonia (Võru, Valga, Põlva, Tartu, Viljandi, Jõgeva, Järva, Lääne-Viru and Ida-Viru). Meteorological conditions were described through atmospheric air temperature (Tmin, Tmean, Tmax) and heat index (HI). The meteorological data were compared by using linear regression and mortality data with mortality rate ratio (MRR). To compare the mortality rates with the reference period, it was necessary to take into account a decreasing trend in mortality during 2007–2011. This trend 441
