THE GREAT DIVIDER/CONNECTER—SOUTHEAST ASIA’S FUTURE: A SHATTERBELT OR A GATEWAY REGION? Zsolt Csepregi On our planet, every place is unique in its own way, but, if we could identify “degrees of uniqueness,” an obvious candidate for the most outstanding and complex region would be Southeast Asia, without doubt. There is no other place on Earth which has such duality as this grand geographic stripe that combines a mainland territory and a chain of islands spanning more than 6,000 kilometres in length from Myanmar to the Eastern edge of Indonesia. It both separates the surrounding oceans and landmasses and connects them in the maritime realm through its navigable straits. This region is also home to hundreds of millions of people from all major religions, thousands of ethnicities and languages. Arguably, no region on the globe is more diverse than Southeast Asia. As I shall later elaborate, many experts remind us in complacent Europe that this area is poised to be the pivot of the 21st century, the century of the Indo-Pacific, a region divided and connected by Southeast Asia that largely defines the coming decades in terms of great power war or lasting peace. A UNIQUE PLACE ON EARTH Southeast Asia is situated at the crossroads of three geostrategic realms: the East Asian, the Asia-Pacific, and the emerging South Asian realm. These realms constitute the Indo-Pacific, which, according to geopolitical thinker Robert D. Kaplan, will become the new global demographic heartland by 2050 with its more than seven billion inhabitants—vast in riches, but also significantly contested between great powers.1 In fact, Southeast Asia not only divides but is also divided between these realms as they are the ones that constitute the surrounding Indo-Pacific. The Indochinese states belong to the East Asian realm, Myanmar partly belongs to
South Asia, while the rest are firmly positioned in the Asia-Pacific. Naturally, these geostrategic units do not solely signify geographic location but certain political alignments, as well. East Asia is dominated politically and economically by the People’s Republic of China, itself being torn between its continental and maritime characteristics. The Asia-Pacific is led by the United States—although the Asian pivot of Obama did not go as planned—and is home to major regional powers such as Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Australia. South Asia is dominated by India, a rising power, with an emphasis on the “rising” nature of the colossal country. Southeast Asia is, therefore, a location where the ambitions of the three largest and, arguably, most powerful states merge and clash, while many more medium-sized powers are influencing the region. The most important takeaway is that Southeast Asia does not constitute a geostrategic realm itself, not even a coherent geopolitical unit, but a unique pivotal region standing at crossroads. Certain similarities can be found with Europe, as both are adjunct, densely populated territories attached to, and located on, the Rimland of the dominating geographic structure of the globe, the Eurasian supercontinent. Nonetheless, digging deeper, we uncover that differences between them are more important to highlight than any similarities, as their positions and influencing geopolitical forces differ greatly. Europe, while fractured by mountains, rivers, and shaped into peninsulas, has to contend with one strong and another semi-dormant neighbouring geostrategic realm (the Eurasian Heartland, dominated by Russia, and Africa, dominated by none). On the other hand, Southeast Asia, as stated above, has to face three strong powers or a coalition of states. For INTRODUCTION
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