GREAT POWER COMPETITION FROM A SINGAPOREAN PERSPECTIVE Nicholas Fang The global environment today is complex and complicated and is becoming increasingly so. Even before the coronavirus pandemic hit, there had been forces at play that threatened to reshape the global geostrategic pecking order. Among these, there was a move away from multilateralism and globalisation towards a more inward-looking, nationalistic view of the world on the part of major powers and smaller nations alike. The trade war between the US and China, China’s growing assertiveness in East Asia and around the world, and the constant spectre of Russian influence, coupled with an unpredictable nuclear threat from North Korea, were high on the list of global geopolitical risks. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak seemed to cast some of these issues aside, but some have already been making a comeback, partly thanks to the American president’s actions as he grapples with his own domestic challenges and his campaign for the upcoming presidential election in November 2020. These global trends have a significant impact on a nation state like Singapore. This republic is a small and open economy, and its relations with the rest of the world are an important aspect of its survival and growth strategy. As such, the growing uncertainty the global community is facing is likely to pose particular challenges to Singapore in the months and years ahead. A HISTORY OF CENTRALITY AND VULNERABILITY To paraphrase Macbeth, history can be a bloody business, and Singapore’s past is illustrative of its need to manage and adapt to competition between great powers in order to succeed in the world. When the British landed on Singapore in 1819 and set up a trading outpost in what was then viewed as the “Far East,” the major maritime
and trading powers of the world certainly saw things clearly through the lens of self-interest and competition. Sir Stamford Raffles, credited with founding modern Singapore and British Malaya, was focussing on securing critical advantage for British traders. This was juxtaposed against the Dutch interest in ensuring freedom of the seas for their own benefit. Even in those early days, it is interesting to note that Singapore leveraged this competitive dynamic to succeed. Experts have pointed out that Britain’s arrival led to the displacement of the Dutch in the region, just as the Dutch had displaced the Portuguese before them. They also emphasise that Singapore has always survived in a contested geopolitical space. The city state was once a naval base of Melaka in Malaysia, a gatekeeper to towns along the Johor River. It was also a rendezvous point for Portuguese and Spanish armadas in the 1500s and 1600s. Since Singapore gained
Chart 1: Ethnic groups in Singapore (2018 est.) 3.3% 9.0%
13.4%
74.3%
■ Chinese ■ Malay ■ Indian ■ Other
ASEAN PERSPECTIVES
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