Oxford Circle Redevelopment Feasibility Study

OXFORD CIRCLE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Oxford Circle Opportunity Hub

The 2013 Comprehensive Plan for Lexington-Fayette County, KY recommended seven areas for further study through a small area plan process. One of those small area plans was the Cardinal Valley Small Area Plan, adopted in April 2015, with an action plan implementation item to conduct a feasibility study for the Oxford Circle Neighborhood Center as a step towards the small area plan’s goal of “Redevelop Oxford Circle as a community space by providing public services such as a new library and community center, as well as neighborhood serving retail.” Redevelopment of Oxford Circle into a neighborhood center with these services was ranked highest by the public in meeting #3 of the small area plan process.

The Oxford Circle Redevelopment Feasibility Study was tasked with understanding what mix of services - library, community center and neighborhood-serving retail – could be supported and would ultimately serve to transform the underperforming retail center. The assignment was not to conduct another planning exercise, but to create a development program that effectively responded to the market and the community it will ultimately serve. A development mind-set and approach was applied throughout the entire 6-month process to fully understand the scale and type of opportunity, how to overcome existing barriers both to the market and with the physical development and finally how to package a viable redevelopment scenario that meets the needs of the community, service providers and existing property owners.

While this site and market is not without its challenges, the study determined that none presented obstacles that cannot be overcome with a good plan of action and engaged, high capacity partners. The following plan outlines a redevelopment approach that will, if successfully implemented, create a “win-win-win” for all involved. Service providers, like the Library and Community Action Council, will get newly built or renovated space that better suits their and their clients’ needs. Existing property owners will have more options, many of which do not exist today, giving them new freedom to explore alternative futures and opportunities. And most importantly, the community will have access to state of the art facilities that offer services tailored to their individual community’s needs through the creation of the Oxford Circle Opportunity Hub.

OVERVIEW OF KEY FINDINGS

1. Current site plan / development layout doesn’t work. Today there are signficant development impediments - condition of buildings/infrastructure, maintenance, safety, parcel configuration, visibility - that must be addressed in order to make the site work for its users.

2. Retail opportunities are limited. While the area is “underserved” by current retail options, poor visibility, competition and physical/psychological barriers do not make Oxford Circle an ideal site. The frontage along Versailles is the most ideal location for future retail. New retail options should serve neighborhood, commuter traffic and hospital visitor markets.

3. Unique community challenges require unique approach. Today’s Cardinal Valley functions very differently than the one that grew up around the original Oxford Circle center. There is a growing need for community and social services to address the evolving needs of the predominately Hispanic community.

4. Library + Community Center are critical anchors. With redevelopment, there is an opportunity to leverage the location of the Library and community/recreational center to attract additional investment and businesses.

5. Piecemeal approach will not work. A holistic approach, to both redevelopment and service delivery, will allow for more sustainable outcomes. There are opportunities for small-scale, incremental changes, but they are unlikely to change the current dynamic over the long haul or attract the level of investment that is needed to re-establish Oxford Circle as a neighborhood contributor.

STUDY RECOMMENDATIONS

Transform the underperforming retail center by acquiring necessary properties that accommodate the development of the Oxford Circle Opportunity Hub. This approach allows anchor uses - Village Branch Library and a Community/Recreation Center –to concentrate existing and expanded services in a way that improves delivery and increases accessibility by their core clients. These initial catalytic investments will attract future private-sector investment and interest from the broader retail/service markets.

EXISTING CONDITIONS

Introduction to Oxford Circle

Oxford Circle is situated in a prime location along one of the major arterials leading into the City of Lexington. As one of the main gateway entries, Versailles Road is heavily used by commuters coming and going to the airport and also serves as the main route to Keeneland. Currently, the existing businesses along this stretch of Versailles Road (i.e. fast food, gas station, liquor store) do not appeal to the broader market, but could be enhanced in a way that would allow them to take advantage of the higher traffic volumes along this major roadway.

The Cardinal Valley Neighborhood that encircles the commercial core is an established working class, family-oriented neighborhood. The past few decades have seen changes to the people who make up the community, with one of the highest concentrations of Hispanics in the City. This diversity carries through to the commercial mix in and around Versailles Road, with many of the stores even catering to a bilingual clientele.

In terms of immediate surroundings, the area around Oxford Circle is comprised mostly of multi-family apartments. While some of the existing businesses within Oxford Circle provide neighborhood services (e.g. bakery, gym, small convenience store, etc.), this area has incredible potential to become both a neighborhood hub for Cardinal Valley, and a destination point for the greater Lexington area.

The site itself is a complicated geometry of a semicircle in which most of the buildings currently face inwards and have their back of house functions, such as dumpsters and emergency access doors, on display to the surrounding neighborhood. In addition, Vaughn’s Branch of Wolf Run cuts across the site, effectively isolating a third of the Circle both perceptibly and physically.

Both images show the aerial view of Oxford Circle named after the U-shaped street that encircles the dated shopping center.

PROPERTY ASSESSMENT | BUSINESS INVENTORY

PROPERTY ASSESSMENT | ZONING

ZONING

Oxford Circle is zoned entirely commercial, either as a Neighborhood Business or Highway Service Business area. Surrounding Oxford Circle is more Neighborhood Business, Professional Offices across the street at Cardinal Hill Rehabilitation, and several residential categories: Planned Neighborhood Residential and Two Family Residential.

PROPERTY ASSESSMENT | PROPERTY OWNERSHIP & PVA VALUE

K & H Enterprises (of Lexington)

Armando + Leticia Torres

Amos W + Mary J Allen

Ralph + Nancy Rhodus

Donald + Ruth White (Tim White)

Lexington Worship Center

PJTRT Holdings LLC

Mary K Ford

J & C Campbell Investments

The existing businesses in Oxford Circle provide a variety of services and goods to the community. The businesses are broken down in the adjacent table.

Among the most heavily used are: Allen’s Food Mart (#3), CSL Plasma Center (#9), Harvest Worship Center Church of God (#10), Ford’s Fitness Center (#12), Little Ceasars (#15), and the Liquor Barn Express (#16).

NOTE: all square footages provided are estimates used for planning only

The Design Team conducted a site survey of the existing building conditions. Materials and upkeep or visible deterioration of structures underwent an initial observation to rank buildings with reuse potential.

Good. Building is in generally good condition.

Minor repairs needed. Mostly cosmetic repairs needed to the structure (e.g. new facade treatment, window replacement, etc.)

Major repairs needed. Significant repairs would be needed to update the structure (e.g. major roof repairs, replacement or repair of load bearing walls, complete gut, etc.)

PHYSICAL ASSESSMENT | URBAN DESIGN

URBAN DESIGN ASSESSMENT

At the time Oxford Circle was constructed there was a movement to build shopping centers around the car. Trends have changed over the decades and consumers are looking for a lively, pedestrian-friendly, community-oriented space that engages the surrounding neighborhood.

Although Oxford Circle links to a number of residential streets it lacks a clear pedestrian zone and is missing sidewalks around the perimeter of the site. This lack of sidewalks also means that the public cannot access the two halves of the site except along the narrow sidewalks on Versailles Road. The right-of-way is generous around Oxford Circle, even containing a vegetated median for a portion of its length. However, there are no clear markings to indicate whether the roadway is one or two lanes in some areas, which causes confusion to motorists and poses a safety issue for pedestrians forced to walk in the street. There is also no delineation given for bicycle lanes.

There is no clear main entrance to the Oxford Circle commercial center, and instead cars enter from a number of worn driveways, cutting across poorly marked parking lots to their destination. These oversized surface parking lots are the first hindrance to any clear pedestrian or vehicular circulation pattern, which often leads to conflicts of who has the right-of-way. Internal sidewalks exist only within the first few feet of the façade of the buildings, with no true connections between groupings of structures. The amount of impervious surface is a hindrance for circulatory, ecological, and aesthetic reasons. Parking is unfocused and not effectively tied to the commercial businesses or shared in a manner that could consolidate the amount of asphalt. Great efforts have also been

made to clean up Vaughn’s Branch and the adjacent parking area.

The businesses along Versailles Road turn their backs on the businesses in the Circle, and pedestrian and vehicular movement across the various properties is challenged. The large number of property owners makes it difficult to accomplish large-scale improvements. The buildings within the area fail to address Oxford Circle or the surrounding neighborhood. Complimentary uses are spread across the site and either force a customer to park multiple times, traverse a sea of parking or walk in the street to reach additional businesses.

View from Versailles Road onto Oxford Circle

Road Conditions along Oxford Circle

Multi-Family structures line perimeter of Oxford Circle

PUBLIC SPACE ASSESSMENT

Oxford Circle has the advantage of having a natural amenity and a large amount of undeveloped / underutilized space in an attractive location which has the opportunity to become a successful gathering site for the community. The natural amenity in this case being Vaughn’s Branch, a tributary of Wolf Run, which runs northwest to southeast bisecting the site with areas on either side filled with vegetation and green open space, (see adjacent photo). Making use of the greenspace along Vaughn’s Branch as a recreational space will help to enhance the area’s appearance.

The Existing Public Space Assessments map provides information on existing sidewalks, major roads, hydrology and pervious surfaces. These elements will be useful in determining the best areas for public gatherings/use. One of the most notable missing amenities are sidewalks along Oxford Circle to form a continuous path around and throughout the commercial core that would encourage the public to explore and circulate. Lastly, Oxford Circle currently has a large portion of its site as impervious surface. Breaking down the scale will be critical in creating public nodes and pedestrian paths throughout the site.

PHYSICAL ASSESSMENT | PUBLIC SPACE

PHYSICAL ASSESSMENT | TREE CANOPY

GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE

The natural infrastructure refers to those biotic systems providing multiple and mutual benefits to the built environment when in balance. Currently, the Oxford Circle Study Area has large areas of inefficient or unused impervious surface creating a dramatic imbalance in the natural infrastructure. The development within the Oxford Circle Area occurred at a time prior to Lexington’s requirements for water quality strategies, water quantity control measures and parking lot landscape requirements.

GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE | SOILS

GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE | HEAT ISLAND

HEAT ISLAND EFFECT

Other than a limited area of Vaughn’s Branch, the project area is void of tree canopy coverage leading to an increase in the heat island effect. According to the recently completed 2015 Urban Tree Canopy Assessment and Report Card, the 11th Council District meets the overall goal of 30% tree canopy coverage. The City’s overall coverage average is 5% below the target. However, the Oxford Circle area is significantly deficient in tree canopy at less than 10%, as indicated by the heat island diagram. This graphic illustrates the majority of the project area with a high to very high heat index ratio. The redevelopment design should strive to reach the goal of 30% Urban Tree Canopy.

GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE | 100-YEAR FLOODPLAIN

STORMWATER AND FLOODPLAIN

The project area is bisected by Vaughn's Branch Creek, a tributary of the Wolf Run Creek watershed. The Oxford Circle Area was developed at a time when there was little to no consideration for Stormwater management practices. As a result, most of the buildings in the Circle experience some degree of water inundation during heavy storm events. The 1983 Kennoy Report illustrated structures that had been inundated during flooding events. The Urban County Government undertook a number of stormwater management projects during the late 1980s and 1990s. The City along with Friends of Wolf Run, a non-profit organization, continue to this day to advance water quality and quantity projects. These stormwater improvements within the watershed include protecting stream bank from development encroachment, reducing existing impervious surface areas and riparian stream bank reforestation.

The current FEMA floodplain map reflects these past improvements by LFUCG resulting in significant reductions in the floodplain area of Oxford Circle. While the risk of flooding has been significantly reduced, any future redevelopment or infill should include floodplain modeling of this reach of the watershed and should employee best management practices for stormwater quantity and quality.

TRANSPORTATION

Oxford Circle is a horseshoe shaped minor collector road. This quarter mile road has a raised center median with local streets connecting to the surrounding Cardinal Valley Neighborhood. Vaughn’s Branch of Wolf Run Creek bisects the project area. As a result of this bifurcation, mobility is limited from the east side of the property to the west side.

In recent years, a number of transportation related studies have been conducted regarding Versailles Road and the Cardinal Valley area. The citywide, 2007 Bike-Ped Master Plan identifies medium and low priorities for bike pedestrian improvements along the Versailles Road Corridor and the Cardinal Valley area. Recently there has been an increased emphasis on mobility and accessibility, thus priorities for multi-modal transit along Versailles Road have shifted. The more recent 2015 Versailles Road Corridor Study calls for 6’ pedestrian sidewalks and 5’ bicycle lanes along both sides of Versailles Road in this “transition section.” Currently, Versailles Road has bike lanes and intermittent pedestrian facilities in the Study Area. The 2015 Cardinal Valley Small Area Plan called for both bike and pedestrian improvements in and around the Oxford Circle Area. Currently, Oxford Circle has no bicycle facilities. Pedestrian facilities are limited to the outside edge of Oxford Circle, including some areas of noncontiguous sidewalks.

TRANSIT FACILITIES

LexTran has two bus routes and four bus stops within the project area. Three stops are located on Oxford Circle and one stop on Cambridge Drive.

Route 8 – Versailles, serves the Versailles Road, Alexandria Drive and Lane Allen Road corridors.

Route 21 – Airport / Keeneland along Versailles Road, provides links to major employment and transportation centers namely downtown, the airport and Keeneland.

Currently, there are two aging bus stop shelters. One on the inner loop of Oxford Circle, and the other on Cambridge Drive. While the shelters both have concrete pads the shelter along Oxford Drive lacks pedestrian or accessible routes to the structure.

BIKE AND PEDESTRIAN FACILITIES

Currently, the inner loop of Oxford Circle has no bicycle or pedestrian facilities. The outer loop has limited pedestrian facilities There are some areas of noncontiguous sidewalks and no crosswalk facilities except at the intersections of Oxford Circle and Versailles Road.

VEHICULAR FACILITIES

Versailles Road (U.S. 60), defining the southern edge of the project area, is a major east/west principal arterial road

INFRASTRUCTURE | TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

connecting downtown Lexington to the City of Versailles. Oxford Circle is classified as a major collector road serving to connect the Cardinal Valley neighborhoods to Versailles Road. According to the MPO 2040 Plan, the Oxford Circle Area currently experiences little to no traffic congestion along Versailles Road. The Plan references minor congestion at the intersections of New Circle/Versailles Road and Red Mile Road/ Versailles Road. Currently, construction projects at these locations should address the congestion issues. MPO 2040 forecasts significant congestion in the Oxford Circle Area if no improvements are constructed.

Vehicle circulation within the property is random and uncontrolled at best. Internal vehicular circulation patterns have not been established due to the past development patterns. As a result, the majority of the east section of the property is paved without traffic controls such as islands, designated driveways or striping. These conditions create inefficiency for vehicular parking and unsafe conditions for motorist, cyclist and pedestrians alike. Other than sidewalks at the buildings, the property has no bike or pedestrian facilities along the perimeter or internally to the parcel.

INFRASTRUCTURE | UTILITY LOCATION

UTILITY INFRASTRUCTURE

For most infill and redevelopment projects; gas, water, electric and telecommunications are generally in the vicinity and utility companies have the capacity for additional service. These utilities are in the project area and should not pose an issue for redevelopment of Oxford Circle. Under LFUCG’s consent decree with the EPA and the KY Division of Water, restrictions have been placed on new development. In certain sections of the city no new or redevelopment projects can commence until adequate capacity can be established to prevent sanitary sewer overflows from occurring. LFUCG’s Division of Water Quality developed the Capacity Assurance Program (CAP) under the consent decree to insure new and infill development could be adequately served by the sanitary sewer system. The sanitary sewer watershed diagram indicates the Oxford Circle Area has sufficient capacity to accept additional sanitary sewer flow from new and redevelopment/infill projects.

Regarding stormwater management as with any new or redevelopment projects, the Oxford Circle Area would need to comply with current stormwater quantity and quality requirements. As such, green infrastructure and low impact development practices offer a means to mitigate stormwater runoff and should be strongly considered for the Oxford Circle area.

MARKET STUDY

Analysis of Retail and Service Sectors

The Oxford Circle Market Study’s principal goal is to determine a recommended development strategy pertaining to the desired project scale and tenant mix. In order to do this, we must understand the market available to support the project. The basic building block is a project’s trade area and the market support factors contained there-in. Once these factors are understood, we can evaluate the market’s underlying supply and demand characteristics. This allows us to evaluate the extent to which the trade area residents’ needs are being satisfied by the existing commercial and service environment. The key is to identify which needs are currently being met, how needs are changing, which needs are found lacking and how the demand for certain services or commercial uses may change over time. This forms the basis for our recommended development strategy.

TRADE AREAS

Factors & Definition

The trade area for any project is that geography from which it will capture a large majority of its clientele and business. Usually the trade area will contribute between 70% and 80% of the project’s demand. Factors impacting the delineation of the trade area include: anticipated scale, potential tenant mix, site visibility, quality and access of the transportation network, both physical and psychological barriers and the presence of competing alternatives. In many cases, not all of these factors have been determined and that is the situation here. For example, this market study will help define both the project’s scale and tenant mix.

SITE AND VISIBILITY

The site is flawed in several ways. There is a significant water feature that runs diagonally across the site, dividing it into two distinct pieces. Along this fault there is also a significant grade change. The eastern portion of the site is approximately 15 feet lower than the western piece. Both of these factors present serious impediments to site utilization. With approximately 1,000 feet of frontage along Versailles Road (Bus. 60), which is a major east-west traffic artery in the western half of the

TRADE AREA FACTORS rankings (1)

Site & Visibility: C

Transportation Network: A

Physical & Psychological Barriers: C

Competing Alternatives: D

Development Scale (2)

Tenant Mix (2)

source: Gentleman McCarty/DCI analysis

(1) A indicates excellent, B indicates above average, C indicates average, D indicates below average and F indicates failing (2) rankings not determined due to lack of information

Lexington market, visibility is excellent for a narrow strip unaffected by the change in topography. Horseshoe shaped Oxford Circle provides visibility of the site on the remaining 3 sides, but traffic levels are significantly lower than along Versailles Road.

Some of the existing land uses on the site and adjacent to it between the two intersections of Oxford Circle with Versailles Road contribute to the negative

perceptions of the area. This is particularly important for the two intersections: to the east, the Marathon gas station occupies what could be an important parcel that could define and establish identity for the Oxford Circle property. To the west, this is also true. This collection of sites could be the ideal location for any retail uses identified for the redevelopment, but would provide ideal locations for more trafficoriented retail and commercial uses. This would require that access off of Versailles Road in both directions is provided. The realignment of Oxford Circle with Mason Headley would improve the availability of frontage and increase access to the site, while creating better connections to Cardinal Hill Rehabilitation Hospital.

Although not part of the Oxford Circle project site, Cardinal Hill Rehabilitation Hospital is located directly across Versailles Road from the site and currently is the most significant economic generator in the area. The hospital was established in 1950 and presently houses 232 beds in 400,000 square feet of space. Reportedly, the hospital has a staff of approximately 600 persons and treats 9,500 patients annually. The average patient stay at the hospital is 1 week. If each patient had an average of 5 visitors over the week’s stay, that would equal nearly 50,000 visitors annually. The hospital staff, patients and, maybe most importantly, patient visitors represent a very attractive “captive market” that presently has virtually no shopping or other commercial services available locally to satisfy their daily needs. This market is not likely captured in the current trade area estimates and would represent additional demand to support retail and service offerings.

source: ESRI Business Analyst and Gentleman McCarty/DCI analysis

Data source: ESRI Business Analyst and Gentleman McCarty analysis

(1) represents estimated totals provided by ESRI

(2) MHI = median household income

(3) AHI = average household income

(4) data represented is percent of total households in each income cohort

10 MIN TRAVEL ZONES RETAIL METRO/CBSA

TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

To the east, Versailles Road connects the site to Downtown Lexington and the University of Kentucky campus, well within a 10 minute drive. These areas are accessible by both automobile and bus service. Versailles Road connects with New Circle Road (Hwy. 4) 1.3 miles to the west and then continues all the way to the City of Versailles (pop. of nearly 10,000). As can be seen from the Drive Time Map, the site can easily reach an area that contains over 22% of the Lexington metropolitan area population (109,708 of 489,562) today.

PHYSICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIERS

While both the Downtown and the University of Kentucky are huge economic generators and are within easy reach of the site, there are both physical and psychological barriers which will limit the site’s ability to draw customers from the east. These destinations are both large and well-established and offer a better, more expansive mix of commercial and service businesses. Given the limited size of the Oxford Circle site and availability of developable sites nearby, the project will not be able to develop a commercial project of suitable scale to compete with these attractions. However, if a unique non-commercial program can be assembled, it may be possible to tap into the extended eastern market. Because of these factors, it is likely that multiple trade areas will be identified to serve the project.

Competing Alternatives. The Fayette Mall area (4 miles southeast) and the Downtown/UK area (2.3 miles east) both represent compelling concentrations of nearly all commercial uses that the community would like to attract. Of important note is the fact that there is not a single shopping center or traditional big box retailer in this western portion of the market, other than the grocery and drug stores one would typically expect to find currently located in the general area of the site. Traditional department stores are absent, as are the discount stores, wholesale clubs and home improvement stores.

POTENTIAL MARKETS

10 Minute Walk Area

- Neighborhood Trade Area

10 Minute DriveCommercial Service Trade Area

Retail Trade Area

Cardinal Hill/Visitor Market

SERVICE MARKET

10 Minute Drive Trade Area

Non-retail uses such as other commercial and service uses can be expected to draw from a broader geographic area than retail uses can because of their very competitive nature. The array of commercial and service uses is populated with a much larger group of possible entities. This allows the possibility to design a mix of uses that is much more unique than that available to retail. In Oxford Circle’s case, we have defined the service trade area to extend for a 10 minute drive time from the site. Additional information on the social services market is provided in the following section.

Population within this trade area in 2015 is 109,708 persons. Population growth within the trade area is strong between 2015 and 2020, reaching 0.9% annually. This compares to the Lexington metro area, which is growing at 0.90% annually. Nationally the growth rate is 0.75% annually. By 2020, this growth rate results in the trade area population reaching 114,757.

Households within the trade area exhibited similar trends to those of the population. In 2015, the trade area had 45,415 households, up from 43,641 households in the 2010 census. By 2020, households will reach 47,700, growth of 0.99% annually.

Household Incomes within this trade area are significantly below average. In 2015, median household income was $39,498 compared to $51,760 for the metropolitan area, or 31% lower. Today, 58.2% of trade area households have incomes below $50,000. This compares to only 48.1% for the metropolitan area. While growth in incomes is projected to increase by 2.2% annually over the next 5 years, it will lag that within the region. As such, the trade area will continue to fall further behind the region in terms of purchasing power.

Trade area residents are younger, at 31.4 years old, than the metropolitan area at 36.1 years. This younger resident population is reflected in the age distribution of the population. Within the trade area there is a higher concentration of school-aged residents, those under the age of 19 (29.8%), compared to 25.5% within the Region.

Ethnically, the trade area differs from the metropolitan area. In 2015, 73.3 % of the population was white and 9.1% reported being of Hispanic origin. This compares to 80.1% and 6.0% at the metropolitan level. Upon more detailed study, it’s clear that the ethnic character of the trade area is heavily influenced by the immediate area surrounding the project. Within a 10 minute walking time of the project, there

(1)

is a total population today of 4,380. This population is much less affluent ($32,179), significantly younger (30.8 years) and heavily Hispanic with 39.8% reporting that they are of Hispanic origin.

As the preceding analysis indicates, demand is strong within the 10 minute drive time trade area. The unique market support factors of the trade area will heavily influence the character of the project’s development potential. The key questions that need to be answered are - is demand and supply in balance? Are there sectors of the economy that are under-supplied? Oversupplied?

Data source: ESRI Business Analyst and Gentleman McCarty analysis

Hispanic origins independent of race

source: ESRI Business Analyst and Gentleman McCarty/DCI analysis

DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL SERVICE USES

A study of businesses, based upon SIC Codes, in the trade area today indicates that of the 11 classified business sectors, all but two (the Utility and Agriculture and Mining sectors) are over-represented within the trade area today. This analysis is summarized on the attached table, Business Summary, and is based upon a comparison of the trade area to the Lexington metropolitan area. As illustrated, the 3 largest sectors, measured by number of business, have been broken down into sub-sectors to provide for a more granular analysis. Using the metropolitan area as a bench mark, we determined the per capita population needed to support each business in each business sector. For example, within the Retail Trade sector, each business requires 113 persons (4,349 businesses divided into the metropolitan population of 489,562 equals a per capita of 113). Using this target per capita figure, it is estimated that the trade area should have approximately 975 business in this sector but currently has 1,555. This indicates that the 10 minute drive time trade area already contains vastly more businesses than it should, based upon our comparison to the metropolitan norms.

The 10 minute drive time trade area is awash with businesses because the area captures 3 very large business nodes within its boundaries: Downtown Lexington, the UK complex and the Fayette Mall corridor. This doesn’t mean that the Oxford Circle project cannot attract business to the site, but this attraction must be based upon the unique draw of the area based on its two “anchors” which define the project: the Cardinal Hill Rehabilitation Hospital and a new social services complex which might be built on the site, led by a new Library.

BUSINESS SUMMARY COMMERCIAL SERVICE TRADE AREA

Data source: ESRI Business Analyst and Gentleman McCarty analysis (1) Targets utilize per capita business information for the County computed for the population within the

RETAIL MARKET

Retail Trade Area

RETAIL TRADE AREA DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICES

Today the trade area for Oxford Circle contains a modest population of 34,602, but with growth projections above the metropolitan area. Incomes for trade area residents are well below average compared to the region. However, an analysis of the supply and demand conditions within the market indicate that the area is not being adequately served and residents are having to leave the trade area to satisfy their need for various goods and services. Retail Trade and Food & Drink is comprised of 30 industry groups. Of these 28 are location based. The chart, Retail Market Place Profile (pg 41), visually displays the Leakage/Surplus Factors for each industry group (electronic or non-physical stores are not represented in the chart), illustrating the degree to which each has either a surplus of supply or a leakage of demand. The Leakage/Surplus Factor is a proprietary measure developed by ESRI to measure the balance between the volume of retail sales (supply) generated by retail businesses and the volume of retail potential (demand) produced by household spending on retail goods. The factor is not a percentage, but a ratio on a scale of -100 to +100. A factor -100 indicates total surplus and a factor of +100 indicates total leakage. Leakage

indicates that not enough retail stores are present to absorb the demand and it is therefore either not being spent or, more likely, leaking outside the trade area to retailers in other retail areas.

As can be seen, of the 28 location based industry groups, 20 are leaking sales outside the trade area. This represents an opportunity for the Oxford Circle project. Of the 20 industry groups that demonstrate leakage, 11 are deemed to be sufficiently under stored (high leakage) to justify focusing on for potential retail candidates for the market.

4.

5. Florists (68.3)

6. Used Merchandise Stores (63.8)

These are the retail groups that should be given the highest priority when developing a leasing plan for the corridor. They are the groups that are most underrepresented in the trade area.

source: ESRI Business Analyst and Gentleman McCarty/DCI analysis

The second tier groups are also underrepresented in the market, but to a lesser degree. Still, they should be part of the corridor's leasing plan.

While much of the trade area indicates retail "leakage," it is not a given that Oxford Circle can recapture that spending. If key factors (such as visibility, barriers and competition) that were discussed earlier in this analysis) are addressed, the ability to capture a larger share of the market will be possible. Even with those improvements, Oxford Circle must compete with other, possibly better suited, commercial sites and corridors.

RETAIL MARKETPLACE PROFILE

Surplus / Leakage Factor

Automobile Dealers

Other Motor Vehicle Dealers

Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire

Furniture

Home Furnishings

Electronic & Appliance

Building Materials & Supplies

Lawn/Garden Equip. & Supplies

Grocery

Specialty Food

Beer, Wine & Liquor

Health & Personal Care

Gasoline

Clothing

Shoes

Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods

Sporting Goods

Books & Music

Department Stores

Other General Merchandise

Florist

Office Supplies & Gifts

Used Merchandise

Other Misc. Retailers

Full-Service Restaurants

Limited-Service Restaurants

Special Food Services

Drinking Places

Surplus Leakage

source: ESRI Business Analyst and Gentleman McCarty analysis

OTHER MARKETS

Neighborhood & Visitor Trade Areas

NEIGHBORHOOD MARKET10 MINUTE WALK

Equal to a 10 minute walk from the site, the trade area equals a 0.5 mile radius and is illustrated on the map, Trade Area Map. As noted earlier, nearly 4,400 people reside in this area today. This population is much less affluent compared to nearby areas. Today, incomes are $32,179, 37.8% below the metropolitan area’s median household income. The population is much younger (median age of 30.8 vs. metro at 36.1) and has a larger number of children at home (≤ 19 years at 29.8% vs. metro at 25.5%). It also has a significant concentration of Hispanic residents.

The demographics of this walking trade area are such that they will not support any uses, commercial or non-commercial, by themselves. They may in fact prove to be a barrier to attracting potential tenants interested in the other trade areas because the demographics are so different.

VISITOR MARKET - CARDINAL HILL REHABILITATION HOSPITAL

Restating what was discussed earlier –“The hospital was established in 1950 and presently houses 232 beds in 400,000 square feet of space. Reportedly, the hospital has a staff of approximately 600 persons and treats 9,500 patients annually. The average patient stay at the hospital is 1 week. If each patient had an average of 5 visitors over the week stay, that would equal nearly 50,000 visitors annually. Since the hospital draws patients and visitors from the State of Kentucky, and beyond, the need for overnight accommodations may be sufficient to support the consideration of including a hotel as part of the project. The hospital staff, patients and, maybe most importantly, patient visitors represent and very attractive “captive market” that presently has virtually no shopping or other commercial services available locally to satisfy their daily needs.”

While not a trade area in the traditional sense, the hospital population is a very attractive market. This population needs Food service, convenience goods retailers, medical related services, hotels, etc.

TARGET MARKETS

Social & Community Services

TARGET MARKETS

Youth Market - A high percentage of youth, especially very young children (under 5 years of age) and very low preschool enrollment supports stakeholder input that youth oriented services are needed in and around Oxford Circle.

Hispanic Market - The immediate area around Oxford Circle has one of the highest Hispanic populations in the Trade Area, over 6 times higher than in the County. Language and education services, as well as targeted outreach, is needed to serve this large concentration of Hispanic residents.

At-Risk Market - Incomes well below the County’s median household income, limited access to transportation and potential language barriers create an environment where somewhere between 25% to 50% of residents live in poverty.

YOUTH MARKET

Population Under 18 Years of Age

While the Trade Area’s percentage of youth does not differ significantly from the County’s percentage, the area immediately surrounding Oxford Circle (Census Tract 20.01) a larger percentage of the population is made up of youths. The immediate area poses the greatest opportunity to capture the youth market which contains approximately 1,300 children or 26.4% of the total population. However, with the right set of services and other opportunities, it is possible to attract youth populations from across the broader Services Trade Area (approximately 10 minute drive.) This would create a pool of approximately 18,000 children or 16.8% of the total population.

There are several different subsets within the youth market that would require different approaches, services and amenities. One in particular that represents a good opportunity for Oxford Circle is the “under 5 years of age” population, more specifically, the preschool market (assumes ages 3 to 5 years.) Within Census Tract 20.01, there is a higher than average percent of children under 5 years of age –approximately 10.8% - compared to the County (6.4%) and the Trade Area

(5.4%). The data provided by the US Census backs up the anecdotal evidence provided by the community, stakeholders and organizations that serve this market - that this is a market with a substantial youth population.

Several stakeholders indicated that early childhood educational services, within the immediate area of Oxford Circle, are lacking. Based on the findings of this analysis, it can be assumed that the needs of the area’s youth are not currently being met by the available options. Within Census Tract 20.01, only 26.8% of children (3-5 years of age) are enrolled in preschool. This leaves approximately 200 children who appear to not be receiving early childhood educational services. Options for these services are available in the neighborhoods surrounding Oxford Circle, but may lack in either quality, availability, outreach to the community or an understanding by parents of the value these services offer.

For instance, Cardinal Valley Elementary School offers early childhood education (preschool) but currently operates at 50% capacity. While this is an accredited school with seats available. Communication or cultural barriers may

be limit their ability to serve the community or specific educational outreach to parents of preschool aged children may be needed to help them understand the need for early childhood education.

POTENTIAL YOUTH PROGRAMMING

Accredited Daycare Early Childhood Education After School Programs Tutoring/Educational Services English Language Services Recreational Opportunities Mentoring Programs

TOTAL YOUTH MARKET

% of Population Under 18 Years

source: US Census American Community Survey 2014 5-Year Estimates, DCI Analysis

YOUTH POPULATION

% Population Under 18 Years

15 to 17 years

12 to 14 years

9 to 11 years

6 to 8 years 5 years

3 to 4 years under 3 years

Tract

20% 40% 60% 80%

%

HISPANIC MARKET

Hispanic or Latino Population

Fayette County has experienced growth in its Hispanic population since the early 2000s and has continued to see growth in this population subset; growing at rates 3 to 4 times faster than the total population. The distribution of Hispanic residents across the County and within the Trade Area, shows clustering within specific areas – Census Tracts with high Hispanic populations in 2010 have tended to increase their percentage of Hispanic residents in 2014. Additionally, Census data shows that recently immigrated Hispanic residents are likely to move to only a handful of Census Tracts, including 20.01 which includes Oxford Circle. Of the 28 Tracts analyzed (Trade Area), only 7 had Hispanic population increases from recently immigrated residents (those that lived abroad one year ago.) Of the 537 recent “immigrants” in the Trade Area, 291 or 54.2% moved into Census Tract 20.01. This is a slight change from 2010, where 10 Census Tracts gained recent “immigrants” and Tract 20.01 accounted for less than one-quarter of all immigrants to the Trade Area.

The Hispanic population in the Trade Area is actually lower than compared to the County, but there are significant pockets of Hispanic residents within many of the Trade Area’s Census Tracts. Within Tract 20.01, almost half (45.3%) of all residents

source: US Census American Community Survey 2014 5-Year Estimates, DCI Analysis

are of Hispanic origins. Additionally, as you move west, Census Tract 20.02 has another high concentration of Hispanic residents, with 44.8% of its population identified as Hispanic.

Even with that said, the percentage of Hispanics to non-Hispanics in Tract 20.01 has slightly decreased, while nearby Tracts – like Tract 20.02 – have experienced gains. This likely indicates not a net loss of Hispanic residents to the Trade Area, but a redistribution of residents to nearby areas as it begins to stabilize. Overall the Trade Area saw a net increase of approximately 2,000 new Hispanic residents.

Non-Hispanic Population Hispanic Population (independent of race)

Likely due to the influx of newly immigrated residents and a concentration of Hispanic residents, Tract 20.01 has the largest percentage of non-English speaking residents in the Trade Area. Nearly half of the population speaks a “language other than English” at home, compared to just 11.8% and 14.3% in the County and Trade Area respectively. Of the 47.6% of residents in 20.01, the vast majority –nearly 100% - speak Spanish or Creole.

While there is a significant subset of the population that speaks Spanish, about onethird of Spanish speakers in Tract 20.01, speak English “very well.” This leaves two-thirds of the population that speak English “less than well.” This likely presents a language barrier to some portion of this group, which equates to approximately 1,400 people. One of the major concerns with language barriers are an inability to communicate in a predominately English speaking society. This can cause disconnects, social isolation and an inability to find employment, education and receive the assistance needed to fully integrate into their new community. Several social and educational organizations – such as Cardinal Valley Elementary and the Village Branch Library – provide bi-lingual support and resources.

POTENTIAL HISPANIC PROGRAMMING

ESL or Language Education

Targeted Bilingual Outreach Immigration Services Early Childhood Education

“Newcomer Academy”

POPULATION CHANGE (2010-14) Total Populations (1)

source: US Census American Community Survey 2014 5-Year Estimates, DCI Analysis

(1) Comparison of the total general population and total the Hispanic population shown

PREVIOUS RESIDENCE (1YR AGO)

source: US Census American Community Survey 2014 5-Year Estimates, DCI Analysis

AT-RISK MARKET

Populations in Poverty

Approximately one-third of the residents in the Trade Area are considered “in poverty.” The Census determines poverty status based on earnings, other forms of compensation and compares that to the threshold established for a particular household type, which vary depending on the size and age of family members. The established poverty threshold for a family of four (2 adults, 2 children) in 2014 was $19,055. Depending on the size and composition of the household, poverty thresholds range from $12,071 for a single person to $45,768 for a family of 9 or more people.

In most cases, youth populations (those under 18 years of age) are more likely to be living in poverty. Often times, elderly populations are also likely to have a greater percentage of below poverty households, however, this is not the case in the Trade Area.

Financial assistance, which includes supplemental security income (SSI), cash public assistance income, or food stamps/SNAP, is collected by 13.6% of the Trade Area’s population, slightly less than in the County. Census Tract 20.01 has a somewhat higher percentage of households receiving assistance, approximately one-fifth, but other tracts within the Trade Area have much higher

US Census American Community Survey 2014 5-Year Estimates, DCI Analysis

proportions of their households receiving some level of financial assistance.

Within the households receiving some level of financial assistance, households that are headed by single-parents make up the majority of recipients. This occurrence is even more evident in Tract 20.02, where, of the 415 households receiving assistance, 408 (or 97.2%) of them are headed by single-parents.

Overall incomes in the Trade Area are significantly lower than the median household income for the County. Of the 28 census tracts in the Trade Area, 18 have incomes below the County’s median, including Tract 20.01 which is over $21,000 lower.

source:

Population Above Poverty Level Population Below Poverty Level

Unemployment in the immediate area around Oxford Circle (Tract 20.02) is similar to that of the County, approximately 8% as of 2014. This is higher than the State’s average, which in 2014 was approximately 6%. However, it is far lower than some of the surrounding census tracts which range from very low unemployment (1.40% in Tract 42.08) to very high (20% in Tract 3) Overall, the average for the Trade Area is around 10%.

Lack of available jobs within a person’s community and the inability to get to available, but further away jobs can lead to underemployment and unemployment issues in many at-risk communities. Less than 10% of workers in Tract 20.02 work within 9 minutes of their residence, yet nearly 30% lack any access to a vehicle. This requires heavy reliance on family/friends and public transportation which can be unreliable and expensive for many low wage workers.

POTENTIAL HISPANIC PROGRAMMING

Family/Life Skills Training

Financial Literacy

Job Readiness/Matching Programs

Mobility or Transportation Support

Affordable Daycare

ESL/Language Education

Housing Assistance

Increased Job Opportunities

POVERTY BY AGE COHORTS

% of Below Poverty Population

source: US Census American Community Survey 2014 5-Year Estimates, DCI Analysis

FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE (1)

% Households Receiving Assistance

source: US Census American Community Survey 2014 5-Year Estimates, DCI Analysis

(1) Financial assistance includes supplemental security income (SSI), cash public assistance income, or food stamps/SNAP in the last 12 months.

VEHICLE AVAILABILITY

% of Total Households

20.01

source: US Census American Community Survey 2014 5-Year Estimates, DCI Analysis

KEY FINDINGS

Retail, Commercial & Service Market Analysis

• Several key submarkets and their trade areas were defined – neighborhood / visitors market, commercial services and retail based on their ability to compete with existing services, retail and other opportunities in the Lexington Metro.

• Rankings for the trade area factors (site and visibility, transportation network, physical / psychological barriers and competition) rank low for the site and will require significant improvements be made in order to attract the market.

• Commercial service market (10 minute drive) faces significant competition from Downtown and University areas, but will likely attract new businesses due to the unique appeal of the proposed library anchor.

• There is sufficient retail “leakage” to indicate an unmet demand for goods and services, but the site is unlikely to recapture this demand without significant improvements to the site and its surroundings.

• The neighborhood market alone is unlikely to support retail or commercial development of any scale. However, paired with the visitor market generated by Cardinal Hill Rehabilitation Hospital and the ability to pull cars off Versailles Road, there may be adequate demand to support new retail businesses.

• There are areas within the site that are better suited for retail and more traditional commercial uses (Versailles frontage) and those that are better suited for social services, commercial services and neighborhood-serving retail (interior of the site.)

• Youth, Hispanic and “at-risk” populations present the greatest opportunity for social and community services.

• The immediate area around Oxford Circle has one of the highest Hispanic populations in the Trade Area, over 6 times higher than in the County. Language and education services, as well as targeted outreach, is needed to serve this large concentration of Hispanic residents.

• Lower incomes, language barriers, limited access to transportation, substantial underserved youth population and a large percentage of households living in poverty provide justification for the development of a social and community serving “hub” in this location.

DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

Oxford Circle Redevelopment Framework

Today Oxford Circle represents a collection of real estate parcels and improvements that are clearly in transition. The most successful business operations are a blood plasma center and a fitness center; both serve mostly customers from outside the immediate neighborhood. There are two small convenient-type grocers, but even they do not fully serve the local market. The majority of the buildings that are not directly on Versailles Road have outlived their useful lives and suffer from deferred maintenance and obsolete design. Few of the buildings have direct street frontage, typically a requirement of well-functioning commercial spaces, and there is no synergy amongst the small grouping of businesses. In other words, Oxford Circle is comprised of a series of isolated outlots with businesses that demonstrate no ability to attract customers wanting or needing a diverse set of retail and service opportunities. This 10 acre commercial real estate is dysfunctional and provides little value to the adjacent neighborhoods. Both the types of businesses and the site configuration must change if Oxford Circle is going to contribute and serve the surrounding households and Versailles Road commuters.

Oxford Circle is clearly in transition and there are only a small handful of viable businesses still in operation. The property owners have experienced difficulty in maintaining both their buildings and the shared parking and common area spaces. The real estate economics for most of the property owners is a losing proposition. This is coupled with several property owners who are ready to retire and intend to sell their real estate in the near future. The prevailing sentiment amongst the property owners is that change is needed and most would be happy to sell their properties and support a new day for Oxford Circle and the neighborhood. It would be difficult to imagine a better window of opportunity to accomplish a large scale redevelopment of Oxford Circle then the one that exists today.

OBJECTIVES

Community-Based Redevelopment

CATALYZE encourage + attract additional investment RELOCATE find a new home for the library

The goal of early public investments should be to create a context that paves the way for future private investments. This approach leverages scarce public resources to encourage investment in area’s that are not likely to attract development on their own.

The Cardinal Valley Small Area Plan identified an opportunity to relocate the Village Branch Library that would serve two purposes - provide larger, better space for the high demand library and anchor the redevelopment of the underutilized Oxford Circle Center.

EMPOWER create new opportunities for residents

Due to limited access to services and support, libraries have become a quasi-community center. However, this site has the opportunity to create an “Opportunity Hub” that becomes the entry point for residents looking to improve their current situation with inclusion of social services, life-long education options and job networking.

CONNECT improve connectivity and access to site

Built during the era of the automobile, Oxford Circle does not work for its current users who arrive primarily on foot. By improving how trafficpedestrian, bike, transit and vehicular - flows on and off the site, it becomes much more attractive to users, investors and potential customers.

TRANSFORM create an attractive, welcoming environment

Lack of investment is very visible in the number of marginal uses, deferred maintenance issues and overall neglect of the properties. There must be improvements to the physical and built environment that re-establishes a welcoming and safe environment if the site can attract additional users, tenants and investment.

DIVERSIFY offer more retail + service options

There is a documented unmet demand for retail and commercial services that presents an opportunity to expand and diversify the existing offerings. Restaurants, convenience goods and general retail options are missing. By diversifying the offerings, there is potential to attract a broader market to Oxford Circle.

RECREATE increase recreational + natural amenities

Vaughn’s Branch Creek presents a unique opportunity to extend the existing trail network and create a series of open spaces within Oxford Circle. Improvement to the creek itself, along with improvements to the existing open space will enhance the development context of the site.

EXPAND attract + serve a broader market

Today Oxford Circle primarily serves the immediate neighborhood. Its location along Versailles and across from an active hospital use provides the opportunity to expand the market and attract an additional customer base that could support expanded retail and service offerings.

MODERATE APPROACH

Strengths of Approach

• Reconfigures dysfunctional site layout into one that has the ability to transform site to better serve the neighborhood

• Adapts existing uses to meet current demand/need

• Creates better internal connections and meets community objectives identified in Small Area Plan

The Moderate Approach is a realistic two-part approach of creating a library, community space, and recreation space through property acquisition or reuse, and enhancing the public realm through streetscape, infrastructure, and greenway improvements. By strategically acquiring and setting aside critical properties along the backside of the Circle for civic use, a problematic area from a retail perspective is turned into a positive. A new Village Library Branch building in this location will be closer to the community it serves, with enhanced transit, bicycle, and pedestrian access along Oxford Circle, with ample parking both on site and in new on-street spaces along Oxford Circle. The reuse of the Ford’s Fitness building provides the opportunity for optional phasing of the library while a new building is under design and construction. It provides an unique opportunity to transform the current gym directly into a community/ recreation center. The remaining buildings would be allowed to develop overtime to best suite the needs of

APPROACH OVERVIEW |

Moderate Acquisition + Development Strategy

targeted property acquisition strategic transformation w/ improved site plan new library facility community/rec facility (rehab + addition) ability to influence future direction change perceptions to attract investment

Estimated Budget: $15,000,000

Objectives Accomplished (7 of 8)

Challenges to Approach

• Requires property acquisition of key properties and long-term transition of less complementary uses

• Provides limited impact visually along Versailles Road and will require long-term plan to transition uses

• Gradual approach fails to address all physical constraints in the short-term

this newly revitalized node. Finally, the parcels along Versailles Road would become opportunity sites for vehicular-centric commercial businesses to capture a portion of the visitors that drive by everyday.

Improvements to the public realm, most notably the addition of a village green, redesign of the parking lots and a “complete streets” approach to Oxford Circle, will work to strengthen the existing infrastructure and bolster retail opportunities. A central green acts as outdoor space for the library, shared community space for gatherings and festivals and a new frontage for the existing commercial buildings. By adding islands within the parking lots and sidewalks internal to the site, the community is encouraged to circulate around the site, activating it further and increasing safety. The portion of Vaughn’s Branch that bisects the site will be further revitalized to become a greenway amenity, as well as an active piece to the stormwater and drainage plan.

COMPLETE APPROACH MINIMUM APPROACH

robust property acquisition new library facility community/rec facility (rehab + addition) new retail and/or service space control future of site change perceptions and attract investment

Estimated Budget: $20-$30,000,000

Objectives Accomplished (8 of 8)

minimal property acquisition library/community space (rehab + addition) village green requires additional acquisition lack direction/control of other properties limited ability to catalyze other investments

Estimated Budget: $5,000,000

Objectives Accomplished (2 of 8)

Strengths of Approach

• Provides maximum impact and eliminates uncertainty for new users

• Expands market appeal

• Holistic approach fully utilizes site and creates better synergy between the anchor uses

Challenges to Approach

• Requires significant upfront acquisition of properties, including Versailles frontage

• May be too much too soon for some long-term residents who have attachment to the site

Strengths of Approach

• Very limited acquisition could result in near-term development outcomes

• Existing building compatible for reuse as library and would reduce upfront cost to redevelopment

Challenges to Approach

• Limited ability to impact and attract other investment to the site and broader community

• Little to no visual impact on Versailles or the majority of Oxford Circle

• No control and limited ability to influence surrounding properties

COMPLETE STREETS APPLICATION

NEW VILLAGE LIBRARY

20,000 sq. ft. flexible, adaptive space innovative library model indoor / outdoor programming community-driven services

Estimated Construction Budget: $6,000,000

CREEK RESTORATION & IMPROVED OPEN SPACE

FUTURE DEVELOPMENT PADS

REALIGN MASON HEADLEY/OXFORD CIRCLE

17,000* + 4,000 sq. ft. recreational flex space early learning classrooms community services

Estimated Construction Budget: $2,600,000

VILLAGE GREEN/ PUBLIC PLAZA

*assumes renovation of existing structure

VILLAGE GREEN/ PUBLIC PLAZA

flexible, adaptive space shared parking

outdoor programming community gathering/festival space

Estimated Budget: $620,000

COMPLETE STREETS APPLICATION

on-street parking w/ bike lanes continuous sidewalks improved transit facilities upgraded stormwater infrastructure

Estimated Budget: $870,000

NEIGHBORHOOD RETAIL & SERVICES

transition of non-compatible businesses relocation of desirable businesses on-site improved “retail” environment more transparent inviting facades

Estimated Budget: $490,000

CASE STUDY |

Baker-Ripley Community Village

In 2007, 12 partner organizations began a community-based process to develop an innovative community village in the low/moderate-income minority community of Baker-Ripley in Houston, Texas. As part of that redevelopment, a mixeduse village was designed to bring a variety of social, health, educational, and recreational amenities to the underserved neighborhood. The place-based strategy blends traditional elements of redevelopment and placemaking with service delivery in a unique village setting that ultimately became a focal point of the larger community.

APPROXIMATE COST (IN 2015 DOLLARS) $16.9 MILLION

OXFORD CIRCLE FEASIBILITY STUDY | PAGE 60

CREEK RESTORATION & OPEN SPACE

build on recent restoration/clean-up efforts extend bike/ped path south expand recreational and open space areas

Estimated Budget: $450,000

REALIGN MASON HEADLEY/OXFORD CIRCLE

improve connectivity to hospital/visitor market create better context for future retail development remove visual and physical barriers on Versailles Road

Estimated Budget: $3.4 million

FUTURE DEVELOPMENT PADS

create new welcoming gateway via development expand regional / commuter markets transition non-compatible / undesirable uses

Estimated Budget: tbd

NOTE: all estimated budgets reflect hard construction cost only

BUDGET Estimated Cost + Funding Strategy

The recommended redevelopment program for Oxford Circle represents an estimated $14,440,000 investment in new facilities and infrastructure improvements. This investment will produce a public gathering place that will attract local residents to a variety of services, retail offerings and opportunities to connect to a variety of greater Lexington resources. Like most redevelopment initiatives, the implementation requires a strong public/ private partnership. In this instance, the private sector is strongly represented by local “high-capacity” not-forprofits that are critical to producing the desired redevelopment outcome. Another typical characteristic of an ambitious redevelopment initiative is the variety of the “capital stack” that is assembled to support the effort. There will be no less than eight sources of funds to support the redevelopment of Oxford Circle, and likely the list will grow as the final project details are established.

The budget as represented in this report is an estimate of total project costs and the types of funding sources that can be used to support them. The budget demonstrates that there is a viable approach for realizing the desired redevelopment objective. The redevelopment budget as represented is based on several key assumptions:

1. With the Library and Community Action Council as the key redevelopment anchors, establish a program that minimizes long term debt thus reducing the annual impact of capital expenditures on their respective annual budgets;

2. Utilize resources available to each of the anchor entities to reduce the need for outside funding;

3. Introduce low cost funding sources such as a federal 108 loan and new markets tax credits, both of which have program objectives that reflect those of this initiative;

4. Utilize flexible debt instruments that allow both entities to fundraise and to retire their debt as they secure funds to do so. Both the Library and Community Action Council demonstrate the capacity to retire most of the project debt within a 10 year period or less; and

5. Package redevelopment objectives in a manner that will appeal to external philanthropic and governmental funders. It is likely that additional sources will be identified as the project details are finalized.

Finally, as can be seen the budget reflects the broad categories of redevelopment project expense and then the funding sources which will support the overall effort. The “sources and uses” budget will eventually be put in a form that represents each of the individual efforts (i.e. library project, community center project, retail infill project, etc). The sum of these individual projects is represented in this budget as seen here, as well as the means to support them.

As local leadership rolls up its sleeves and begins to explore the best path forward, it is important to realize that the budget will be modified and likely improved to the benefit of each of the project components.

NOTE: The provided budget does not include any environmental remediation and is only an estimate intended for discussion

(1) Cost represents construction hard cost only. Does not reflect total project cost. To see total project cost see implementation budget on page 66.

(2) Contingency funds could be used for a variety of redevelopment activities include, but not limited to additional property acquisition and business relocation assistance.

Fundraising and grants will retire 50% to 75% of $6 million debt

Lease rate of $6 - $12 / sqft will retire remaining 25% to 50% of debt over 20 years at 5%

grant will retire 60% to 75% of their debt

Lease rate of $4 - $8 / sqft will retire 15% to 20% of debt over 20 years at 5%

of construction cost may be reduced by grants and

Interest only loans for 7-years with ability to negotiate forgiveness of up to 50% of loan at end

OPPORTUNITY HUB CONCEPT

The Opportunity Hub concept employs a holistic approach to community empowerment by layering traditional social services with improved quality of life, access to economic opportunities and improved health and wellness options. While not all of these objectives will be met by each Opportunity Hub, the services and offerings should reflect the current and future needs of the community it serves.

The concept of recasting Oxford Circle as an “Opportunity Hub” effectively repositions the area to better serve the current and future needs of the residents of Cardinal Valley and beyond. The Small Area Plan began to identify those changing needs and the market analysis helped pinpoint both the growing need and the lack of available, easy to access programming. As part of the Oxford Circle redevelopment effort a conscious, thoughtful community engagement process is needed to fully flush out the services that would best serve the adjacent communities.

From interviews with the Lexington Public Library and other key stakeholders in the area, the library is already acting as a de facto community center, providing a variety of social and educational services to its patrons. Those services paired with the existing, and planned expansion of Community Action Council programming, require a level of partnership and communication between the two key anchors. This early engagement will ensure each organization’s programming does not duplicate, but instead complements the other’s offerings.

IMPLEMENTATION

Action Plan(s) and Funding Strategies

The implementation plan described uses, as its primary foundation, the 2015 Cardinal Valley Small Area Plan. The plan outlines several redevelopment priorities for Oxford Circle, most prominently the inclusion of a community library branch to anchor the site. Following a market and real estate analysis the consulting team agreed that a redevelopment initiative is both feasible and important in reinforcing a neighborhood at risk. Eliminating the existing site and building obsolescence, reconfiguring Oxford Circle in a manner that is more conducive to serving its businesses and customers in a quality and convenient fashion and providing a well-designed, attractive community gathering place as the Small Area Plan states, is a needed worthwhile objective.

PARTNERSHIPS

Key Players and Their Roles

The Oxford Circle Development Program will involve at least 2 phases as described in this document. The first phase, to occur over a 5 year period will involve several critical partners. The most important partners are the Lexington County Public Library and Lexington Community Action Council. Both organizations have indicated an interest in establishing a significant presence on the Oxford Circle site. Their combined involvement would result in nearly $10,000,000 in new investment, approximately 40 jobs and up to 40,000 square feet of active building space.

It is important to understand that Oxford Circle is a difficult redevelopment project. The logistics of acquiring the land, site design, funding and managing multiple land uses is challenging and requires a unique set of skills. In most communities it is difficult to find the requisite skills and capacity to successfully plan, design, fund and implement such a complex redevelopment initiative. Fortunately, the Lexington community has several entities that when organized and committed are more than capable of undertaking this type of effort. The potential partner list identifies organizations that are believed to be integral to the Oxford Circle Redevelopment Work Program.

Lexington Fayette Urban County Government (LFUCG)

ROLE: establish redevelopment plan for Oxford Circle and assist with organizing the required community support.

EXPERTISE: leadership, planning, funding

Lexington Public Library (Library)

ROLE: potential on-site anchor institution providing library, education, and a variety of community services

EXPERTISE: service provider, fundraising, public engagement, community program development

Community Action Council (CAC)

ROLE: potential on-site anchor services provider offering early education (Head Start), and a diverse set of services for low income families and children

EXPERTISE: service provider, fundraising, access to employment and training network

Community Ventures*

ROLE: potentially serve as redevelopment project lead helping to organize all elements of Oxford Circle development program

EXPERTISE: development services including property acquisition, project financing, project management

* Participation by Community Ventures is contingent upon future conversations with the organization

5-YEAR ACTION + INVESTMENT PLAN

Oxford Circle Opportunity Hub

KEY PLAYERS

EARLY ACTION ITEMS

Property Acquisition

The intent of this initial “project” is to get critical properties under control prior to putting together the final financing strategy. This will likely come in the form of 6-12 month options on key properties.

New Village Library

The goal of relocating the Village Branch Library can be accomplished and a new facility will be constructed that better meets their current and future needs. Working with their timeline this will likely occur in 2018.

LFUCG

w/ support from Community Ventures or other redevelopment entity

Library

w/ support from Community Ventures or other redevelopment entity and LFUCG

Rehabbed Community/Rec Facility

With a community lacking in community services and indoor recreational options, this is an ideal location to provide those services. Ideally both uses would occur together, but there are options to incrementally add in recreational uses in later phases.

CAC

w/ support from Community Ventures or other redevelopment entity and LFUCG

Oxford Circle Complete Streets

Increasing access and connectivity around and to Oxford Circle was a critical need identified by the community. This project would enhance multi-modal travel modes and increased safety for those traveling to the site.

Village Green / Public Plaza

The community identified the need for a gathering space for events and festivals. This flexible space would accommodate parking and community events as well as outdoor programming from the Library and Community Center.

6-12 month options on key property

Perform preliminary due diligence on property (survey, environmental)

Identify and secure funding/financing

Identify who will purchase and own property

Work with existing businesses and owners on relocation options

Develop and formalize partnerships with key players

Initiate 6-12 month community engagement on programming

Develop schematic designs (site and library)

Identify and secure funding/financing

Begin entitlement and approval process

Establish and formalize partnerships with key players

Identify program and operational structures

Work with CAC and community on programming

Develop schematic designs (site and facility)

Identify and secure funding/financing

Begin entitlement and approval process

Work with MPO to identify potential funding/financing

MPO

w/ support from LFUCG, TAP, LexTran

LFUCG

w/ support from Community Ventures or other redevelopment entity

Identify highest priority elements

Complete design and engineering of improvements

Secure funds and bid work

Develop partnerships with key players

Complete survey and determine necessary right-of-way needed

Work with partners to secure funding/financing

Complete design and engineering of improvements

Bid and construct

$7,340,000

FUNDING SOURCES

OUTCOMES

Within 6-12 months, all critical property under control with assignable option on property

• Property owners inform tenants of intent to sell and work to find new locations, provide business relocation assistance on a case by case basis

• Clear understanding of property ownership of “common area” owned by Rental Association with a plan for disposition or shared use by new owners

• Once financing is secured, LFUCG or assigned party exercises option to purchase properties at negotiated price

Conventional Financing, CDBG, Section 108 Loan, New Markets Tax Credits, Local Foundations

• Establish a comprehensive set of programming objectives that meet the needs of existing and future residents of Cardinal Valley

• Create new, innovative and flexible library space that better suits the needs of the Library

• Identify synergistic uses that would complement library uses and provide alternative services to the community in which it is located

• Bring additional partners to the table to create “win-win” opportunities for them and the Library as well as the community

$3,400,000

Conventional Financing, Head Start, New Markets Tax Credits, Local Foundations

• Establish a comprehensive set of programming objectives that meet the needs of existing and future residents of Cardinal Valley

• Redevelop existing space to accommodate the growing needs of Community Action Council and provide early learning classroom space

• Identify and contract with the YMCA or other like organization to provide programming for the indoor recreational space

• Bring additional partners to the table to create “win-win” opportunities for them and CAC as well as the community

$1,400,000 New Markets Tax Credits, Federal and Local Transportation Dollars

• Work with community to create design that integrates multi-modal transportation options into the existing right-of-way

• Support additional parking demand with on-street parking within existing right-of-way

• Incorporate natural elements and high quality design to increase community identity and placemaking

• Increase safety of all users - pedestrians, bicyclist, transit riders and auto users

$1,715,000

Section 108 Loan, New Markets Tax Credits, Federal and Local Transportation Dollars, KY New Markets Tax Credits

• Creation of flexible outdoor space that can accommodate various community events and provide ample space for Library and Community Center programming

• Increase access to natural amenities and recreational space for nearby residents and users

• Improve and provide additional parking to support higher intensity uses such as the Library and Community Center

5-YEAR INVESTMENT + FUNDING STRATEGY Oxford Circle Redevelopment

* Ownership and acquisition of the Village Green parcels assumes negotiation and/or subdivision of the common area currently owned by the Renter’s Association to be determined during final negotiation with future property owners.

VILLAGE GREEN RETAIL TOTAL PROJECT

CASE STUDY |

John H. Boner Center

The John H. Boner Community Center was developed to solve challenging issues on Indianapolis’ near-eastside. The multi-use center offers youth services, adult services, youth and senior day care, financial education, senior services, transportation assistance and recreational/fitness options.

The area has also seen significant improvement in the quality and availability of affordable and market-rate housing. Several years after the initial investment, the near-eastside raised additional dollars to expand the existing facility and to fund a health and rec center that incorporates physical activity with healthy lifestyle educational assistance.

RECENT PROMISE ZONE DESIGNATION

10-YEAR ACTION + INVESTMENT PLAN Oxford Circle Opportunity Hub

KEY PLAYERS

Vaughn’s Branch Restoration

The restoration of this unique site feature will open up new recreational options along the creek’s bank, connecting to the existing network of trails and greenways throughout Lexington.

Mason Headley Realignment

By aligning these two critical intersections additional developable land is created and connectivity between the employment center (hospital) and Oxford Circle would be greatly enhanced.

LFUCG

w/ support from Foundations and other non-profit organizations

LFUCG

w/ support from KY DOT, MPO

Versailles Frontage Development

The current retail/service options lack broad market appeal and visually detract from the area. Improved retail pads that support higher and better uses would improve the market and likely attract additional users to the site.

Private Developers

w/ support from Community Ventures or other redevelopment entity and LFUCG

Housing Stabilization Program

The current multi-family housing surrounding Oxford Circle is a liability to the Opportunity Hub. Improving the overall aesthetic and quality of these units may attract more stable residents that benefit from proximity to the services offered nearby.

Retail Incentive Program

A need exist to transition retail uses that do not reflect the future “brand” of the Opportunity Hub and replace them with complementary uses or better aligned retail businesses.

LFUCG

w/ support from Community Ventures, CAC or private developers

LFUCG

w/ support from Community Ventures, CAC or private developers

EARLY ACTION ITEMS

Perform necessary survey and engineering work for stabilization

Design open space, trail, bridge and other improvements

Bid and construct

Work with cemetery and other property owners on relocation

Acquire property needed for right-of-way improvements

Engineering and design work

Bid and construct

Engage property owners to understand future plans

Track changes to property ownership and availability

Acquire and assemble property as it becomes available

Determine best use and site design for properties

Engage local developers on potential opportunity

Engage local code enforcement, public health and safety officials

Evaluate potential of targeted enforcement strategy

Work with property owners to improve properties

Work with local developers and/or housing organizations

Continue conversatinos with local property and business owners

Identify ideal retail/services that support the Opportunity Hub

Explore funding sources and mechinisms like a revolving fund

Assist property owners with business relocation services

Work with property owners to recruit desired business types

POTENTIAL FUNDING SOURCES INTENDED OUTCOMES

$450,000 EPA Funding, Conservation Fund, Trails Program

• Stabilized banks that support native vegetation and natural habitats

• Remove current and future pollutants and their sources from the creek with the intention of improving water quality and water habitats

• Connect to existing trails and greenways to provide multi-modal options for connectivity

• Create a natural setting that provides relief from (sub)urban conditions found in the majority of the Cardinal Valley Neighborhood

$3,400,000 Federal and Local Transportation Dollars

• Creation of single, easy to understand intersection at Oxford Circle and Mason Headley

• Assembled land at new intersection for future auto-oriented retail Relocated cemetery entrance

• Improved pedestrian connections to Cardinal Valley Rehabilitation Hospital and to neighborhoods to the south

Conventional Financing, Public Resources (ex: TIF, Section 108, CDBG if available and applicable)

• Assembled properties at key intersections (Versailles Road and both corners of Oxford Circle/Mason Headley)

• Identification of targeted retail and service types that complement Opportunity Hub and appeal to broader market (commuters)

• Attraction of retail and service offerings that attract and support employees, visitors and patients at Cardinal Valley Rehab Hospital

• Evaluation of hotel and/or housing options for southwest corner of newly aligned Oxford Circle/Mason Headley road

Conventional Financing, Public Resources (ex: TIF, HOME, Section 108, CDBG if available and applicable), HUD Resources

• Ongoing and consistent enforcement of existing zoning, building code and health/public safety laws with emphasis on properties adjacent to the Oxford Circle Opportunity Hub

• Established pool of resources and programmatic assistance for private developers and/or individuals to improve residential units Added organizational/programmatic capacity (example CDC)

$585,000

Conventional Financing, Public Resources (ex: TIF, HOME, Section 108, CDBG if available and applicable)

• Transition of underperforming or non-complementary businesses

• Attraction of like-minded businesses and complementary retail to fill vacant storefronts

• Diversified retail and service offerings that better support the community and the commuter/visitor markets

FUNDING SOURCES

Menu of Potential Resources*

SOURCE LEAD

SUPPORT

of Funds Organization Organization(s)

Funding Tools/Resources

Section 108 Federal/Local LFUCG Library, CAC, Community Ventures

Head Start Federal CAC

New Markets Tax Credits (NMTC) Federal Community Ventures LFUCG

KY NMTC State Community Ventures LFUCG

Sponsorships Other Library or CAC, LFUCG

United Way Other Library or CAC LFUCG

CDBG Federal/Local LFUCG Library, CAC, Community Ventures

Public Transportation Funds Federal/Local LFUCG KYTC, LexTran, CVNA

Water Quality Incentives Grant Local LFUCG, FOWR FOWR, CVNA

FHWA TAP Federal LFUCG, MPO KYTC, LexTran, CVNA

EPA - 319(h) State/Federal LFUCG FOWR

Land and Water Conservation State/Federal LFUCG FOWR, CVNA

Recreational Trails Program State/Federal LFUCG FOWR

Five Star State/Federal LFUCG FOWR, CVNA

OCS Grant Federal LFUCG, Community Ventures Library, CAC

Section 42 Federal Community Ventures, Private Developer LFUCG

HOME Federal Community Ventures, LFUCG CAC, Private Developers

FOWR = Friends of Wolf Run CVNA = Cardinal Valley Neighborhood Association

TAP = Transportation Alternatives Program

ELIGIBLE ACTIVITIES

PRIMARY USE

Programs/Uses at Oxford Circle

Acquisition, Relocation, Construction

Library, Village Green

Programming, Construction Community Center

Acquisition, Relocation, Construction, Programming Library, Community Center, Complete Streets, Village Green

Acquisition, Relocation, Construction, Programming Village Green

Construction, Programming

Village Green, Community Center, Library

Construction, Programming Library, Community Center

Acquisition, Relocation, Construction, Programming

Public Right-of-Way Enhancement

Library, Community Center, Village Green, Retail Incentives

Complete Streets, Village Green

Water Quality Improvement, Education Creek Restoration, Site Improvements

Public Right-of-Way Enhancement, Transit

Complete Streets

Water Quality Improvement, Education, Technology Green Infrastructure, Stream Restoration

Water Quality Improvement, Trails, Recreation Trails, Pedestrian Bridge

Trails and Bridge Construction on Public Lands

Trails, Pedestrian Bridge

Water Quality Stream Restoration

Construction, Programming Library

Construction

Affordable Housing (buying, building or rehabbing), Direct Rental Assistance

Housing Stabilization

Housing Stabilization

* This list only represents the most applicable sources, but additional local, state, federal and private funds could be available for this project that have not been included.

CRITICAL TIMELINE

Preliminary Pre-Development Schedule

KEY ACTIVITIES

6-12 Month Pre-Development Activities

Targeted Start/ End Date

April 2016 Present feasibility study to City Council Planning and Public Safety Committee and discuss next steps

May/June 2016 Work with City Council to identify sources of preliminary funding during Budget Review Session

June/July 2016 Initiate conversations with critical property owners to validate property acquisition assumptions from feasibility study

June/Sept 2016 Perform site survey to determine ownership and property appraisals

July/Dec 2016 Negotiate 6 - 12 month assignable options on critical properties

July/Dec 2016 Engage Library and potential consultant on community-based programming process to determine uses, services and space needs

July/Dec 2016 Identify and formalize partnerships for redevelopment activities

Sept 2016 Bid out work for schematic design and preliminary engineering work

Nov 2016/Mar 2017 Perform schematic design and preliminary engineering work

Q4 2016/Q1 2017 Apply for and secure initial funding and financing for project