Urban Ecological Planning (UEP)
International Master’s Programme
Department of Architecture and Planning
Faculty of Architecture and Design
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Trondheim, Norway
Semester Booklet, Spring 2023
Urban Ecological Planning (International Master’s Programme)
Department of Architecture and Planning
Faculty of Architecture and Design
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Trondheim, Norway
Course Coordinator:
Course Lecturers:
Guest Lecturers:
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Mrudhula Koshy
Assistant professor and Doctoral researcher, NTNU
Mrudhula Koshy (Uncertainty and Contingency)
Assistant professor and Doctoral researcher, NTNU
Gilbert Siame (Adaptation)
Associate professor, NTNU
Wang Yu (Disaster and Risk Management)
Senior researcher, NTNU
Angelo Jonas Imperiale (Urban resilience)
Lecturer and Post-doctoral researcher, University of Groningen
Corina Angeloiu (Urban Resilience)
Strategic Learning Lead, Global Resilience Partnership, Ocean Risk and Resilience Action Alliance (ORRAA)
Rodrigo Mena Fuhlmann (Humanitarian-development-peace nexus)
Assistant Professor, International Institute of Social Sciences, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Vija Viese
Research Associate, NTNU
Cover image: Corentin Julliard @ pixabay
2023 has been a year of unpredictability. World over, countries and communities are experiencing compounded uncertainties due to consequences of climate change, the onslaught of inflation, recession and layoffs, protracted displacement, and armed conflict, impacting our lives in unexpected ways. Climate activists, environmental experts, and international humanitarian organizations among others have intensified the clarion call for urgent shift in status quo. Despite global realization from governance institutions, decision makers and civil society organizations on the immediate need to deal with unprecedented environmental crises, how to operationalize effective contingency planning remains unclear.
The ‘Urban Contingency Practice and Planning’ course (7.5 credits), in the 5th year of its current iteration, aims to bridge this gap. The course highlights how interrelations in theory, practice and policy could be redefined to deal with contingencies. The course is held every spring semester in association with the Urban Ecological Planning (UEP) international master’s program at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway. Complex concepts such as uncertainty, contingency, resilience, and adaptation are addressed at the intersection of spatial planning, disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, and humanitarian response. The course equips students to recognize and synthesize uncertainties at various levels and intensities, and to develop contextual and multi-scalar plans and design responses that are flexible and adaptable.
The premise of this group assignment was to prepare a contingency plan for a hypothetical crisis of unexpected floods (due to sea level rise or heavy rainfall) in Trondheim. Like many cities around the world, Trondheim faces a range of risks and threats. In such cases, rather than viewing uncertainty as a catastrophe, envisioning different scenarios and pathways can enable institutions, organizations, and communities to kick-start transformative change.
To stimulate transdisciplinary research, the general objectives of this group work were to:
1. Explore the range of perceived and documented risks, threats, and uncertainties in Trondheim.
2. Analyze the various stakeholders, institutions, and organizations in Trondheim, which are dealing with (perceived) disruptions and the ways they could prepare, respond, adapt, and transform.
3. Understand that the range of scenarios and different constraints can lead to different outcomes in plans and strategies. Drawing on existing morphology, spatial structure, and features of geographical location of the selected area in Trondheim is paramount for a contextualized plan.
4. Document best practices and cases from other disaster-prone and vulnerable areas that are appropriate for the given scenario.
5. Propose a contingency plan based on the hypothetical scenario and, through it, outline a response strategy, implementation plan, operational support plan, preparedness plan and budget. This includes sets of flexible tools, strategies and frameworks that can deal with unexpected and unprecedented uncertainties and enhance planning for contingencies based on this exploration.
Each team was given one hypothetical scenario with a different set of resource, institutional, spatial and climate change constraints. Within the given constraints, students prepared a contingency plan which comprises a set of frameworks, tools and strategies that are flexible and adaptable.
We hope you enjoy reading this compiled booklet of the students’ hard work as much as we enjoyed teaching the course!
Kind regards,
Mrudhula Koshy, Vija Viese, Wang Yu, and Gilbert
Siame
Managing the impacts of climate change is a growing challenge around the world, and the increased natural hazards that follow poses a serious threat to communities. Floods due to heavy rain is one natural hazard that can cause extensive damage. Floods pose major risks to people, infrastructure, and economies due to the increased frequency and intensity of these events brought on by climate change and other factors. Having a well thought out contingency plan is therefore important in order to respond effectively when a natural hazard occurs.
The purpose of this paper is to create a contingency plan for Brattøra in Trondheim, with a given scenario in which Brattøra is exposed to floods from heavy rainfall. The area has limited substantial financial resources but has a disaster management authority. The report consists of a site analysis, methods applied, and best practice examples which forms the basis of some of our recommendations.
The contingency plan consists of a response strategy, an implementation plan, a preparedness plan, an operational support plan, and a budget. The report concludes in a discussion where future improvements for Brattøra are discussed.
The scenario given to us is that Trondheim is a very low-density city and is prone to floods due to heavy rainfall. The municipality has limited financial resources but has a disaster management authority.
We have selected Brattøra because it is a vulnerable site that is worth looking into. The area of Brattøra has been chosen as the investigation site because it is prone to flooding as a result of persistent rainfall. The topography, location, and limited financial resources may all contribute to this risk. Since the municipality has limited financial resources, investigating this location might assist the municipality in identifying the area’s flood risk and potential low cost measures to mitigate the impacts of a flood.
In this chapter, various methods used in this study will be presented. The methods have been helpful in understanding the context and to develop a realistic contingency plan.
An important step in the initial stage of the process was to conduct a site visit. Through observation of the site the team was able to experience the site and identify different individuals and stakeholders. The visit was important because it gave the team the opportunity to observe how the different stakeholders co-exist, and to experience the site first hand.
The team conducted a stakeholder analysis that was helpful in identifying which stakeholders that should be involved in the contingency plan. The team also investigated how the stakeholders relate to each other and how they can cooperate in case of a flood at Brattøra.
The group reached out to stakeholders in the area to gather information about their preparedness in case of a flood. However, the group only received a response from two stakeholders which made it challenging to collect enough useful data. We did not receive any significant information from the stakeholders that responded.
Researching similar cases from other parts of the world and Norway has been helpful to the group. The group conducted online searches to find other best practice examples that could be implemented in our own plan, which includes elements from case studies in Norway, Indonesia and Australia.
Figure 2: Flooding at Brattøra (NTB scanpix, 2020)
The site analysis will aid in developing an understanding of the location. This will allow for the evaluation and analysis of factors necessary to develop the contingency plan.
The artificial island of Brattøra is located in the city of Trondheim in the Trøndelag county. The island is situated at the mouth of the Nidelva River, north of the district Midtbyen, west of Nyhavna, and south of the Trondheimsfjord. Brattøra has no residents, however around 5000 people are employed there (FramtidsTrondheim, (n.d.). The island of Brattøra and the surrounding mainland are separated by a canal. Trondheim Central Station and Trondheim Port occupy the majority of the island, along with commercial buildings. The Skansen Tunnel connects the island to the western part of the city. Brattøra consists of several businesses and institutions. The swimming pool Pirbadet and the Norwegian School of Management are two examples of buildings that are frequently visited. Pirterminalen,
the docks for the express boat services to Fosen and Kristiansund, as well as the corporate offices of Fosen Trafikklag, are also located in Brattøra. Brattøra is also visited by the Coastal Express and other cruise ships (Rosvold, 2020).
The history of Brattøra is closely linked to the development of the harbor in Trondheim. The river harbor has been crucial for the economic prosperity of Trondheim, exporting fish, timber, and copper in the 17th century. Eventually, breweries were also established on Brattøra, while a landing area was constructed on Ilsvika to receive passenger traffic from ships anchored outside Munkholmen. In the 1880s, the arrival of the railway at Brattøra connected the city to other regions and improved the transportation of goods between the
Figure 4: Map of Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)harbor and other areas. This created a need to expand the harbor areas, and through dredging and filling, today’s Brattøra was created as a modern traffic hub, with a canal harbor and railway facilities (Trondheim Havn, n.d.).
Currently, there are no implementation plans for Brattøra related to floods due to heavy rainfall. However, Trondheim municipality has guidelines and provisions in their plans regarding climate change adaptation.
The most important plan that decides land use is the municipal master plan (KPA 2012 - 2024). The master plan sets the premises of further planning of detailed zoning plans such as master sub-plans and detailed zoning plans for private landowners and developers (Trondheim kommune, 2014).
To help the municipality approve detailed zoning plans, the climate plan, which is also a kind of a master sub-plan, sets some guidelines . The climate plan highlights the importance of building a more compact city which reduces the need for cars and transportation (Trondheim kommune, 2022). Planning a compact city makes Brattøra ideal because of its short distance to the city center, which makes it a relevant area for the development of both commercial buildings and residential housing.
The municipality by having the power to approve plans can work together with the disaster management authority and city planners to focus on flood resilience in plans. An example is the master sub-plan for Nyhavna, just east of Brattøra. The plan shows how to make continuous waterways that have to be included on the more detailed smaller zoning plans (Trondheim kommune & Trondheim havn, 2022).
In the current master sub-plan for Brattøra from 2001, most of the area is still zoned for harbor and railway activities (Trondheim kommune, 2018). This plan is not customized for an urban area adapting to a warmer, wilder and wetter climate. The only detailed zoning plan in the area with provisions concerning climate is the plan for Powerhouse Brattøra. This plan determines that the Powerhouse building should be constructed to withstand storm surges, wind and heavy rain, and that risk reducing measures should be considered when building (Trondheim kommune, 2014).
Figure 5: Brattøra, 1951 (Strinda Historielag, n.d.)
Figure 6: Municipal master sub-plan for Nyhavna from 2016 (Trondheim kommune, n.d.-a)
Due to several factors, including its special location, climate change, rapid urbanization and limited capacity of the existing urban drainage systems, Trondheim is especially disposed to flooding. Three different flooding scenarios are likely to occur in Trondheim: Flooding from the river Nidelva, flooding from the sea during storm events and flooding in urban drainage systems (FloodProBE, n.d.).
The timeline in figure 9 shows the biggest floods in Trondheim in the past 35 years and what damage they have caused. Due to its exposed position to the fjord, Brattøra is particularly at risk to be flooded from the sea during a storm surge. Gale-force storms in Trondheimsfjorden and spring-tides increase the sea-level up to 50 cm and the water level of the river Nidelva due to backflow (FloodProBE, n.d.). Especially the floods of 2011 and 2020 caused great damage in Brattøra (The Local, 2011; The Local, 2020).
The perceived risks the group has identified are divided into two categories; risk to individuals, and risk to property and infrastructure.
Figure 8: Storm surge in Trondheim. The picture is taken from Brattøra and shows Lade in the background (Eggen, V. & Kilnes, C., 2020)Several groups at Brattøra may be at risk from flooding. Since there are no residential zones in the area, the groups most at risk would be employees, students, commuters and visitors. These groups may be unaware of the risks they might encounter, which can have several consequences. Employees might not be aware of flood risks in their place of work, which makes them unprepared in case of a flood and could be a risk to their safety because they do not know how to react. Businesses can also get temporarily shut down due to flood damage, which can result in financial loss and job insecurity. Students, hotel guests, pool visitors and commuters can also be vulnerable to floods. They may lack knowledge about the flood risk, flood procedure and evacuation routes in the area. These groups might have trouble getting out of buildings, or they might suffer injuries.
Property and infrastructure is also perceived to be at risk from flooding, since there is a lack of flood mitigating measures in the detailed zoning plan. Damage to infrastructure can result in cancellation of ferry routes, inability to drive on damaged roads and can prevent people from traveling. Damage to property and infrastructure can also result in financial losses and possibly businesses having to close down, which can result in unemployment.
A stakeholder is defined by Rolstadås (2020) as an individual or an organization which is actively involved in a project or has interests that could be affected by a project.
Identifying the stakeholders early on was an important step in the initial stage of the contingency planning process. The stakeholders had to be identified before the group could settle on the measures. There are several stakeholders at Brattøra, which were divided into property owners and renters. The property owners consist of both public and private stakeholders, and the group mapped the number of properties they own at Brattøra. The property owners were then ranked based on power and interest, as shown in figure 10. The group considers Trondheim Havn IKS and Trondheim municipality to be the most powerful stakeholders, as they own the most properties or are considered to have high influence. The stakeholders that are ranked high are the most relevant to work with regarding a contingency plan.
There are also several renters that have interests in the area. Multiple stakeholders such as private companies, institutions, hotels and eateries are located in the area. The renters were ranked, as shown in figure 11, based on power and interest. The ones with the most power and interest are considered to be Pirbadet swimming pool, Rockheim museum, Trondheim Coastal Express, Norwegian School of Management and the Headquarters of Fosen trafikklag. These stakeholders were ranked high because they most likely have the most visitors and/or employees, therefore the group believe they would be interested in making the area withstand the effects of a flood since it could affect their businesses considerably.
Figure 11: Property renters at Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)
Bergen, the second-largest city in Norway, is on the west coast and receives heavy rainfall of 2,250 mm per year. The Bryggen area, with its rich history, has suffered fires and holds valuable archaeological treasures. However, increased use of impermeable surfaces and groundwater drainage present challenges. To preserve the archaeological sites and manage stormwater sustainably, it is important to restore the natural water balance by allowing local stormwater to infiltrate the ground. The primary goal for the historic Bryggen area is to protect the archaeological remains and prevent subsidence by increasing groundwater recharge. This is achieved by storing and infiltrating stormwater using sustainable drainage systems such as swales and rainwater gardens. These systems, shown in figure 13, offer various benefits including flood reduction, pollutant retention, improved air quality, enhanced ecological values, and reduced urban heat island effects (Boogaard et al., 2017).
Makassar city is located in the South Sulawesi province, and experiences floods every year. In 2013, a flood contingency plan was developed for Makassar City. The plan consisted of six stages including stakeholder socialization, data collection, workshops, updating the plan as data continues to change and evolve, public consultation, and finalization of the plan. The goal of the socialization meeting was to build shared commitment and equal understanding between the stakeholders (InaSAFE, n.d.).
To address the water flow issue on Øvregaten street, a plan was implemented to collect the water through an inlet and store it in a settlement storage tank. The water then flows into a rainwater garden and, if needed, overflows into swales.
In addition, permeable pavement, and I/T-drainage (porous pipes for stormwater infiltration and transport) are utilized to further facilitate infiltration in the area (Boogaard et al., 2017).
The development of the plan would be a long process and it was therefore important that the stakeholders were committed to the process. Once the stakeholders were committed, they were invited to contribute in the following steps of developing the plan. Lessons learned from the process show that stakeholder participation was crucial for the process, and that the cooperation between the stakeholders was a success (InaSAFE, n.d.)
Figure 13: Use of swales and rainwater garden in the Flood model of Bergen, Norway (Source: ClimateScan, n.d.) Figure 14 & Figure 15: Stakeholder meetings in Makassar (InaSAFE, n.d.)In Australia a new approach to community flood education is showing promise in providing effective and long term benefits to flood prone communities in some parts of Australia. The new approach extends the reach of flood education. In addition to raising awareness and preparedness, the aim is to help build flood resilient communities.
The new approach contains several functions of flood education, such as preparedness, mitigating behaviors, adaptive capability and post-flood learnings. The functions address learning related to beginning and preparing for floods, learning and implementing flood mitigating actions, how to change and maintain adaptive systems and build community competencies, and learnings from the flood event that could improve these functions (Dufty, 2008).
The approach, shown in figure 17, provides examples on improving the adaptive capability of a community such as training volunteers to help educate their local communities and community leaders, developing and maintaining ongoing community discussion about floods and how to cope, and reviews of preventative and coping systems by public meetings or focus groups (Dufty, 2008).
The approach also proposes local flood education plans, which are managed by local flood education committees. The committees should be guided by experts such as emergency management agencies. In addition, the community should be involved in the planning, implementation and evaluation phases (Dufty, 2008).
To better prepare for future floods, the approach also includes examples of education activities regarding post-flood learnings. Surveys and focus groups could map the effectiveness of the measures and how they can be improved, learnings from disaster debriefs can improve systems and agency competencies, oral stories will allow people to recount their stories and be better prepared for future floods, and community debrief meetings can identify problems and possible improvements in the preparation, response and recover (Dufty, 2008).
Figure 18 shows which measures we have picked from each best practice example which will be implemented in the contingency plan for Brattøra. Socializing the stakeholders could help in creating a sense of community and raise awareness among stakeholders about flood risks. The rainwater gardens in Bergen is a low cost measure that could inspire planning of blue/green structures at our site, and the approach from Australia could be useful as the community at Brattøra grows.
Contingency planning can be described:
“As a process, in anticipation of potential crises, of developing strategies, arrangements and procedures to address the humanitarian needs of those adversely affected by crises.” (Choularton, 2007, p. 3).
A contingency plan helps to answer basic questions regarding a potential situation for example, a natural disaster. These questions are:
What could happen?
• What would be needed to alleviate the situation?
• How would action be taken?
• What materials, supplies and staff would be needed?
• What preparation is necessary?
• How much will it cost?
To answer these questions a contingency plan consists of six plan elements. The plan elements are the scenario, the response strategy, the implementation plan, the operational support plan, the preparedness plan and the budget. The experience of the disaster management body is taken into account, as well as the financial constraints of the region (Choularton, 2007).
The contingency plan in figure 20 describes short-term, medium-term and long-term measures to prevent the possible impacts of a flood. The site analysis and our given scenario has laid the basis for the development of our contingency plan. The contingency plan consists of a response strategy, an implementation plan, an operational support plan, a preparedness plan and a simplified budget.
As a first step of constructing a response for a specific scenario planners need to define what they hope to achieve and how they intend to achieve it. This is done through a response strategy. The response strategy is supposed to link the scenario and the subsequent plans (Choularton, 2007).
In this case a thorough response strategy that specifies definite objectives in line with the particular conditions anticipated for Brattøra was built. These objectives, shown in figure 21, directly address the challenges posed by flooding, taking into account the limited financial resources in the area. The gap between the scenario and the plan is being filled with targeted interventions. With the use of site analysis, practical techniques, and examples of best practices specific to Brattøra, these interventions are intended to lessen the effects of flooding. The response strategy is crucial in ensuring that the objectives are clear and pertinent to the situation at hand, giving enough time for the creation of efficient solutions. Figure 22 shows the expected timeline of the response strategy.
The immediate response after the flood will initially involve alerting the authorities, which the existing flood management authority will be responsible for. The rescue services will then provide humanitarian relief and evacuate people safely. Temporary flood barriers will also be placed to prevent further water inflow.
Implementing soft measures to prevent the impacts of floods due to heavy rainfall in the future will be the main focus of this contingency plan. Since the flood management authority and municipality has limited financial resources, the measures will mainly involve low cost actions such as spreading awareness about floods, involving stakeholders, proposing to change policies for new buildings, and making evacuation and flood information available to the public in visible places at Brattøra. The remaining financial resources will finance low cost blue-green structures and rainwater gardens which will capture rainwater.
Figure 21: Response strategy for Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)The next step after defining the scope and goals of the intervention in the response strategy is the implementation plan. The implementation plan defines how the responses will be implemented in detail. This can be done by answering a range of basic implementation questions for different areas.
The areas are emergency needs assessment, targeting, partnership, monitoring and evaluation, reporting, logistics and security. Examples for implementation questions in the area partnership: What partnerships are needed to make the plan work? What will the role of these partners be? After deciding on the best course of action, attention turns to organizing the specifics of how it will be carried out (Choularton, 2007).
When the city council approves a detailed zoning plan, the DMA’s task is raising awareness among city planners and politicians to make the right decision, resulting in a more resilient city. There are different hazards in different parts of the municipality, therefore it is important to make the correct necessary precautions. The DMA is responsible for making sure that the different risks and hazards are accounted for and identified. Flood risk is one of the most important ones (Trondheim kommune, 2021).
Regarding Brattøra the DMA can be responsible for informing city planners about the need for safe spaces, or making sure there is enough free space to do a proper emergency evacuation. The DMA can also suggest or inform about preventative measures such as the mentioned storm drain catch basins, green roofs and blue green infrastructure. Every detailed zone plan is required to include risk and vulnerability assessment, which is a systematic evaluation of potential risks and vulnerabilities that a city or urban area may face. It involves identifying and analyzing various hazards. The DMA is responsible for making sure the assessment is handed in to the municipality correctly as the assessment serves at the foundation for informed decision-making. In this way city planners, policymakers, and stakeholders can prioritize investments, allocate resources, and develop resilient and sustainable urban areas (Trondheim kommune, 2021).
The DMA will also be, in collaberation with others, be responsible for the evacuation plan, community response plan and the flood education plan for Brattøra.
The identified stakeholders at Brattøra will need to be informed about the hazards following a flood, and they need to know how to respond to a flood. Information posters in visible places will inform the public on what to do in case of a flood, location of evacuation routes and temporary shelters. Having a dialogue with the stakeholders can help to build a sense of community, and arranging meetings will encourage them to make mitigating measures on their properties to make the buildings withstand the damaging effects of a flood.
An evacuation plan is necessary to ensure safe evacuation in case of a flood. The existing disaster management authority will ensure that an evacuation plan is in place and goes according to plan. The procedure needs to be clear and effective, and evacuation zones should be established for registration of those evacuated. Trondheim Red Cross, Norwegian People’s Aid and Trøndelag Fire and Rescue Department can be responsible for the evacuation, while The Civil Defense will aid with temporary shelter and rations. Providing housing is not highly relevant for this scenario since there are no residents, except for hotel guests that may be affected. However, a plan for providing temporary housing may become relevant in the future if the area is developed for housing.
Proposing to change policies for new buildings and municipal plans can be another measure to make Brattøra more flood resilient. The municipality already has different plans and guidelines on making the city resilient against climate change, and how structures and urban areas should be developed to adapt to climate change. The most important one is the municipality master plan which sets the premises for zoning plans (Trondheim kommune, 2023), shown in Figure 25. The existing zoning plans for Brattøra should be updated and focus more on climate change.
Hence, the group suggests a new zoning plan which proposes mixed land-use objectives including residential zones. Establishing residential housing in the area can aid in building a community. The new plans should also contain measures for heavy rain and floods, in addition to other natural hazards. Permeable surfaces which absorb surface water can be one measure.
Today, a large portion of Brattøra consists of parking spaces and concrete, with non-permeable surfaces. A step towards planning and making a more climate friendly part of the city is to find alternative locations for the current activities, and eventually approve zone plans for mixed used commercial and residential housing. The plans should also be updated for future extreme weather conditions with heavy rain, storm surges and water level rise similar to what was done in the sub-plan for Nyhavna (Trondheim kommune, 2016).
The group also proposes to change policies for new buildings and demand that buildings and infrastructure are constructed to be more robust. The plan should also set requirements for developers regarding risk reducing measures such as green roofs, green walls and natural based infrastructure on their properties.
The new plan should also have a strategy for handling surface water, and the most suited areas for storing surface water and for waterways should be identified. Where it is necessary, property owners will be responsible for handling and collecting surface water on their own properties. The developers and landowners should be required to redirect surface water from their properties towards the fjord which will create blue/green corridors. It should be able to connect natural based infrastructure on public spaces to the private ones, which can be done through a municipal master plan. Slowing down and storing water, in addition to increased filtration, will stop water from potentially damaging buildings and infrastructure or cause capacity issues in the sewage system.
Pir II architects concept of natural based solutions in figure 26 shows a strategy on how Trondheim should develop towards 2050. Strategies like this can be a useful tool for planning a future master sub-plan for Brattøra.
Figure 25: The municipality’s proposal for a new municipality master plan 2022-2034 (Trondheim kommune, 2023) Figure 24: Illustration photo. Concept by Henning Larsen architects (Henning Larsen, n.d.)Brattøra, located in Trondheim, faces the challenge of managing stormwater runoff due to its extensive impervious road surfaces. To address this issue, we propose implementing rain gardens, as illustrated in figure 27, as a cost-effective solution. By utilizing the existing road medians and roadside green spaces, we can create a network of rain gardens that will help infiltrate and manage the rainfall effectively.
The impervious road surfaces exacerbate the problem of stormwater runoff in Brattøra. However, by converting road medians and roadside green spaces into rain gardens, we can harness the potential of these areas to capture and retain rainwater. The existing green spaces provide a valuable opportunity to integrate green infrastructure seamlessly into the urban landscape, enhancing both functionality and aesthetics.
In addition to their environmental benefits, rain gardens offer a cost-effective solution for managing stormwater runoff in Brattøra. Compared to traditional stormwater management systems, such as constructing larger underground storage tanks or expanding the existing sanitary infrastructure, rain gardens prove to be a more affordable alternative. By harnessing the natural infiltration capacity of the soil and carefully selecting appropriate plant species, we can achieve effective stormwater management at a fraction of the cost.
Moreover, rain gardens provide a sustainable approach that integrates with the existing landscape and infrastructure. Instead of costly and extensive construction projects, rain gardens utilize the natural properties of the soil and vegetation to capture, filter, and absorb stormwater runoff. This approach not only reduces the financial burden but also enhances the visual appeal and ecological value of the area.
Rain gardens offer numerous advantages in mitigating stormwater runoff. Firstly, they promote natural infiltration, allowing rainwater to percolate into the ground rather than overwhelming the existing sanitary system. This reduces the strain on the system during heavy rainfall events. Moreover, rain gardens act as natural filtration systems, removing pollutants and improving water quality before it reaches local water bodies.
To optimize cost-effectiveness, the excess water from the rain gardens can be efficiently managed by connecting extension pipes to the existing sanitary line . This ensures that any surplus water flows into the sanitary system, preventing overwhelming the rain gardens during heavy rainfall events. By making use of the existing infrastructure, we can maximize the efficiency of stormwater management while minimizing additional expenses.
Figure 28: Rainwater garden system (Illustration: Group 1)
Involving the local community in this initiative is crucial for its success. By engaging residents and organizations, we can create a sense of ownership and environmental stewardship. Community involvement can range from participating in the planning and design process to volunteering for maintenance activities. As most people go there for work, different programs such as free swimming day at Brattøra for volunteers could be arranged to involve the community. This collaborative approach fosters a strong connection between the community and the rain gardens, leading to long-term sustainability and appreciation for the benefits they provide.
A local flood education plan can be developed for Brattøra, which could be managed by a local flood education committee consisting of both experts and the community. Considering the stakeholder analysis, it is important that all groups are represented, owners and renters, as well as all sub-groups.
Flood education activities regarding post-flood learnings could also help the community to be better prepared for floods. Surveys and focus groups could map the effectiveness of the measures and how they can be improved, learnings from disaster debriefs can improve systems and agency competencies, and community debrief meetings can identify problems and possible improvements in the preparation, response and recovery.
By implementing rain gardens in Brattøra, we can address the challenge of stormwater runoff effectively, while also providing an opportunity for the local community to contribute to the improvement of their environment. Through cost-effective measures, such as rain gardens, we can create a resilient and sustainable stormwater management system that enhances the beauty and functionality of Brattøra.
Learnings from the approach to community flood education in Australia can be implemented in the contingency plan for Brattøra. By involving the community and improving their knowledge, their preparedness for future floods will be raised. Volunteers from the community can aid in setting up flood barriers in the event of a flood. The approach can help build a flood resilient community at Brattøra.
Several functions from the approach can be implemented, such as training volunteers to help educate their local communities and community leaders, developing and maintaining ongoing community discussion about floods and how to cope, and reviews of preventative and coping systems by public meetings or focus groups.
Since Trondheim is expected to grow rapidly in population by 2050 (Trondheim kommune, n.d.-b), the area of Brattøra is most likely a highly relevant area for future development of housing and services because of its close location to the city center and public transport connections. Since the area is prone to floods due to heavy rain, measures should be implemented if the area is developed further. In addition, developers must ensure that new housing is built at least 4 meters above sea level, such as the requirements for future housing at Nyhavna which is next to our site. This can help both for heavy rain and for storm surges.
Figure 29: Illustration photo of community involvement in creating rain gardens (Perkiomen Watershed Conservancy, n.d.)The operational support plan in figure 31 makes sure there is enough financial and administrative assistance. It demonstrates how diverse human resources, informational resources, and other forms of assistance may be provided by the many stakeholders. This is crucial because, in addition to distributing financial relief to those affected, humanitarian action must be taken to lessen the harm the hazard will inflict (Choularton, 2007). The municipality of Trondheim, with its several departments, is the principal stakeholder. National and regional levels will aid in securing international assistance, and NVE will offer technical guidance through research and mapping. Accurate weather forecasts will be provided by the meteorological institute. The various municipal departments will provide the community with financial assistance and emergency support.
Planning for preparedness identifies pre-disaster actions to facilitate a successful response. Periodic precautions are taken as part of a two-tier strategy, and when a specific disaster strikes, more extensive contingency planning is implemented. Contingency plans use preparedness planning to specify activities at each stage (Choularton, 2007).
The preparedness plan, shown in figure 32, in this instance focuses on identifying flood-prone locations that require technical or geographical interventions, raising awareness, organizing stakeholders, and producing improved information. The following table shows the preparedness plan with different measures, benefits and limitations.
Budgets for planned responses and preparatory initiatives are frequently included in contingency plans. Budgeting, however, can be a time-consuming and meticulous process and since fully funded backup plans are typically not required until there is ample time a simplified budget is sufficient (Choularton, 2007).
Since there aren’t many resources accessible financially for this situation, many of the suggestions and actions listed above are straightforward but effective. The resources raised by the many project stakeholders will make up the majority of the finance.
A general concept of how the budget will be applied across the project’s measures is shown in figure 33.
Figure 32: Operational support plan for Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)Brattøra is expected to undergo major changes in the future, which makes preparing for floods due to heavy rainfall a necessary task. The area does not have any inhabitants. In the future, Brattøra is an area that is expected to grow due to municipal plans that are currently being developed, and residential zones are likely to arise. Today, most visitors in the area go there for work, studying, leisure or for traveling which makes them vulnerable because these groups might be unaware of flood risk and flood procedures in the area.
Because of limited financial resources, low cost soft measures set the frame for the plan. The presented different steps of the contingency plan focuses on risk assessment, response and information. By engaging the community and the stakeholders, the plan aims to build a community at Brattøra and to spread flood information and awareness. Since it can be difficult to engage the stakeholders, visitors and employees, proposing residential zones can contribute to building a stronger community. The residents could volunteer in flood preventive measures in their community. Involving the future residents and stakeholders and raising their knowledge about floods can help the community be better prepared for floods. However, this measure depends on active participation and the willingness of the community which is why it is crucial to build a strong community.
As long-term solutions, changing legal plans and establishment of nature based solutions should be the main measures. By preparing both short-term and long-term, Brattøra can strengthen its ability to withstand extreme weather and heavy rain events, minimizing potential damage, and ensuring the safety and well-being of its future residents and infrastructure. Considering the low budget, implementing rainwater gardens and measures for surface water or even elevating the ground in the most flood prone areas are considered more costly measures. These measures will therefore require willingness by stakeholders, and funding. As mentioned, the group proposes to change municipal plans and demand that developers adapt their projects to withstand floods, and the cost will then be covered by the stakeholders in question.
To conclude, the contingency plan can aid in making Brattøra withstand the effects of floods in the future and to be better prepared for floods. Although the limited financial resources impose limitations, the group has prepared solutions which can improve Brattøra’s preparedness for floods and minimize damage to infrastructure and properties.
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Henning Larsen Architects. (n.d.). Concept for Transittkaia. Available at: https://nyhavna.no/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Team-Henning-Larsen.pdf (Accessed May 25th 2023)
InaSAFE (n.d.). Case Study: InaSAFE for Flood Contingency Plan Development in Makassar City, South Sulawesi. Available at: http://inasafe.org/wpcontent/uploads/2016/08/Case-Study-InaSAFE-in-Flood-Contingency-Plan-in-Makassar-City-South-Sulawesi Final.pdf (Accessed: May 13th 2023)
Kyodo News/AP (2021). Five million people under evacuation order in Japan as rain batters south coast. Available at: https://edition.cnn. com/2021/08/14/asia/japan-flood-evacuation-intl-hnk/index.html (Accecced 25th of May 2023)
NTB scanpix. (2020). Vi må forberede oss på storflom. Available at: https://www.dnb.no/dnbnyheter/no/samfunn/forberede-oss-storflom (Accessed May 25h 2023)
Perkiomen Watershed Conservancy (n.d.). Illustration photo of community involvement in creating rain gardens. Available at: https://www. perkiomenwatershed.org/rain-gardens (Accessed May 25th 2023)
Pir II Architects. (2019). Se arkitektenes forslag for fremtidens Trondheim. Available at: https://www.bygg.no/se-arkitektenes-forslag-for-fremtidenstrondheim/1388539!/ (Accessed May 25th 2023)
Rolstadås, Asbjørn (2020) interessent (prosjektledelse). Available at: https://snl.no/interessent - prosjektledelse (Accessed May 26th 2023)
Rosvold, Knut A. (2020) Brattøra. Available at: https://snl.no/Bratt%C3%B8ra (Accessed May 25th 2023)
Sharief/Xinhua (2021). Flood hits South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Available at: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-03/11/c 139803581.htm (Accessed May 25th 2023)
Shvets, Anna (2020). Illustration photo of the planning process. Available at: https://www.pexels.com/nb-no/bilde/blyant-samarbeid-borduskarphet-5324975/ (Accessed May 25th 2023)
Strinda Historielag (n.d.). Trondheim havn 1951. Available at: https://www.strindahistorielag.no/wiki/index.php/Fil:Trondheim havn 1951.jpg (Accessed: April 14th 2023)
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The Local (2020) Extreme weather in Norway: Trondheim docks flooded by freak high water. The Local. Available at: https://www.thelocal. no/20200211/extreme-weather-in-norway-trondheim-harbour-flooded-by-freak-high-water (Accessed: May 25th 2023)
Trondheim Havn (n.d.). Historie. Available at: https://trondheimhavn.no/om-oss/historie/ (Accessed: May 25th 2023)
Trondheim Havn. (2020). Enova-støtte til energistudie på Brattøra. Available at: https://trondheimhavn.no/enova-stotte-til-energistudie-pa-brattora/ (Accessed May 25th 2023)
Trondheim kommune (2014) Kommuneplanens arealdel 2012-2024. Available at: https://www.trondheim.kommune.no/globalassets/10-bilder-og-filer/10byutvikling/byplankontoret/kommuneplan/kpa-trondheim-2012-2024/kpa bystyret24042014 20000.pdf (Accessed: April 6th 2023)
Trondheim kommune (2016) Kommundedelplan for Nyhavna. Available at: https://www.trondheim.kommune.no/kdpl nyhavna/ (Accessed April 20th 2023)
Trondheim kommune (2018) Kommunedelplan for Havneområdet. Available at: https://www.trondheim.kommune.no/tema/bygg-kart-og-eiendom/ arealplaner/kommuneplanens-arealdeldelplaner/kommunedelplan-for-havneomradet/ (Accessed: April 26th 2023)
Trondheim kommune (2021) Om planprosessen. Available at: https://www.trondheim.kommune.no/tema/bygg-kart-og-eiendom/arealplaner/utarbeideprivat-reguleringsplan/om-planprosessen/ (Accessed May 10th 2023)
Trondheim kommune (2022a) Temaplan for klimatilpasning 2021-2025. Available at: https://www.trondheim.kommune.no/globalassets/10-bilder-ogfiler/10-byutvikling/miljoenheten/klima-og-energi/klimatilpasning/temaplan-for-klimatilpasning vedtatt-030222-uu260722.pdf (Accessed May 21th 2023)
Trondheim kommune & Trondheim havn (2022) Kvalitetsprogram for Nyhavna - Ti strategiske virkemidler for utvikling av en sentrumsbydel på Nyhavna. Available at: https://www.trondheim.kommune.no/globalassets/10-bilder-og-filer/10-byutvikling/byplankontoret/1d kunngj-annet-plan/2022/ kvalitetsprogram-for-nyhavna/kvalitetsprogram-for-nyhavna-vedtatt-19.05.22.pdf (Accessed May 5th 2023)
Trondheim kommune (2023) Ny arealdel 2022-2034. Available at: https://sites.google.com/trondheim.kommune.no/kommuneplanen/arealdelen (Accessed May 25th 2023)
Trondheim kommune (n.d.-a) Archive legal plans. Available at: https://kart5.nois.no/trondheim/Content/Main. aspx?layout=trondheim&time=638202055798763034&vwr=asv (Accessed May 20th 2023)
Trondheim kommune (n.d.-b) Befolkningsprognoser. Available at: https://www.trondheim.kommune.no/aktuelt/om-kommunen/statistikk/prognoser/ (Accessed May 21th 2023)
University of Minnesota. (2018). Building a rain garden. Available at: https://extension.umn.edu/landscape-design/rain-gardens (Accessed May 25th 2023)
Wold, Ole M. (2020) Sett klimarisiko på dagsordenen! Available at: https://www.kommunal-rapport.no/debatt/sett-klimarisiko-pa-dagsordenen/110360!/ (Accessed May 26th 2023)
Front page photo by : Wold, Ole M. (2020)
Figure 1: An overview of Brattøra (Trondheim Havn, 2020)
Figure 2: Flooding at Brattøra (NTB scanpix, 2020)
Figure 3: From the groups site visit to Brattøra (Group 1, 2023)
Figure 4: Map of Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)
Figure 5: Brattøra, 1951 (Strinda Historielag, n.d.)
Figure 6: Municipal master sub-plan for Nyhavna from 2016 (Trondheim kommune, n.d.-a)
Figure 7: Municipal master sub-plan for Brattøra from 2001 (Trondheim kommune, 2018)
Figure 8: Storm surge in Trondheim. The picture is taken from Brattøra and shows Lade in the background (Eggen, V. & Kilnes, C., 2020)
Figure 9: Timeline of the biggest floods in Trondheim the past 35 years (FloodProBE, n.d.)
Figure 10: Property owners at Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)
Figure 11: Property renters at Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)
Figure 12: Pirbadet and Clarion Hotel and Congress Center (Source: Group 1, 2023)
Figure 13: Use of swales and rainwater garden in the Flood model of Bergen, Norway (Source: ClimateScan, n.d.)
Figure 14 & Figure 15: Stakeholder meetings in Makassar (InaSAFE, n.d.)
Figure 16: Flood in Makassar, Indonesia in March of 2021 (Sharief/Xinhua, 2021)
Figure 17: The functions of flood education related to the ‘flood-cycle’ (Dufty, 2008)
Figure 18: Findings from the case practices (Illustration: Group 1)
Figure 19: Illustration photo of the planning process (Shvets, 2020)
Figure 20: Contingency plan for Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)
Figure 21: Response strategy for Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)
Figure 22: Timeline of the response strategy for Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)
Figure 23: Firefighters rescue stranded residents on a boat in Japan (Kyodo News/AP 2021)
Figure 24: Illustration photo. Concept by Henning Larsen architects (Henning Larsen, n.d.)
Figure 25: The municipality’s proposal for a new municipality master plan 2022-2034 (Trondheim kommune, 2023)
Figure 26: Pir II Architects concept of nature based solutions for Brattøra (FramtidsTrondheim, n.d.)
Figure 27: Rainwater garden catching stormwater runoff (University of Minnesota, 2018).
Figure 28: Rainwater garden system (Illustration: Group 1)
Figure 29: Illustration photo of community involvement in creating rain gardens (Perkiomen Watershed Conservancy, n.d.)
Figure 30: Illustration photo of future development (Pir II Architects, 2019)
Figure 31: Operational support plan for Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)
Figure 32: Operational support plan for Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)
Figure 33: Budget for the contingency plan of Brattøra (Illustration: Group 1)
Contingency plan for Nyhavna
A community-based approach for a new mixed use area prone to flooding
Chowdhury Ferdoushi Hossain Suhi
Magne Maråk
Niklas Kustaa Aarnio
Stine Kronsted Pedersen
Sea level rise is increasingly posing threats to coastal cities across the world. Coastal flooding can drown water-adjacent urban areas, causing human and economic hazards across both short and long temporalities (C40, 2021). While this challenges conventional practices of urban planning, in doing so, it also opens up for new ways of doing things.
One of such coastal cities is Trondheim. Located in the Trondheimsfjord, opening to the Norwegian sea, the city is prone to climate-change induced sea-level rise and flooding. During the 21st century, Trondheim is facing a sea level rise at approximately 40 centimeters (Direktoratet for samfunnssikkerhet og beredskap, 2009). Simultaneously, Trondheim is expecting a population growth of 15 % towards 2030 (Statistisk sentralbyrå, 2021), creating a demand for densification of the city. The city is planning to achieve a ‘zero-growth goal’ which implies that the urban growth is planned within the city center, rather than in the periphery.
This is the context in which the area of Nyhavna is being developed. Nyhavna is an artificially built industrial harbor. While the industries are being shut down and moved out of the center, a new mixed-use area is proposed. Its location adjacent to the sea makes it particularly attractive to urban development. However, this location also makes it vulnerable to flooding.
It is in this nexus that this report will take its starting point, asking: how can a localized, people-centered contingency plan work in combination with nature-based design solutions to improve resilience and sustainability of Nyhavna, as an example of an urban area prone to flooding caused by sea level rise?
The report is built up around a hypothetical case where there are substantial resources, no disaster management authority and low density. First, it introduces the context of Nyhavna, the history, the risks and the opportunities. Then it moves on to study cases of best practices from contexts similar to Nyhavna, specifically, waterfront design and planning in Hamburg and Copenhagen. Then a contingency plan is presented, where the potential synergies between flood-sensitive planning and urban design are discussed in the form of hard infrastructure. In addition, the benefits of using a community-based approach will be presented. Finally, measures for a more resilient and sustainable urban future, considering climate-change induced sea-level rise and flood risks, are discussed.
The contingency plan is based on the principles of a localised and flexible approach. The argument behind this is, first of all, that Nyhavna is a site with a very particular context. As it is constructed land, which was originally designed for industrial use, the form and location of the site requires a certain specificity in the planning. Furthermore, the unpredictability of climate-change induced sea-level rise calls for flexibility in the design of the urban spaces. This will be further discussed in the report. Enjoy!
Nyhavna is an industrial area located right north-east of the city center of Trondheim. The surroundings of Nyhavna are largely dominated by water, as Nyhavna is located at the crossroads where the river Nidelva meets the Trondheimsfjord. Due to its location on the seaside, Nyhavna is for the most part an industrial area where the Port Authority of Trondheim plays a big role. However, Nyhavna is to be converted into a mixed-use area in the near future.
Up until the late 19th century, Nyhavna was mostly inhabited by fishermen and the coastline consisted of long beaches. In 1912, the Port Authority of Trondheim decided to extend its activities from neighboring Brattøra to Nyhavna (Nyhavna, n.d.). Shortly thereafter, Nyhavna was converted to an industrial area, with its residents having to relocate. During the Second World War, the German occupiers started the construction of Dora I and Dora II, which were to be used as submarine bunkers. The bunkers were tried to be demolished after the war, but this turned out to be impossible due to their enormous size. Today, they are used for different purposes, such as archive center and storage space (Dora, n.d.). Both Dora I and Dora II are preserved due to their historic importance and cultural heritage.
Due to its central location, Nyhavna can be reached from many parts of Trondheim with different modes of transportation. However, due to the industrial activities in the area, Nyhavna is heavily carbased. Large areas in Nyhavna are completely closed off from the general public and are reserved for the companies which operate in the port area. This, in addition to the lack of sidewalks, makes Nyhavna an unpleasant urban space for pedestrians and bicyclists.
As the development in Nyhavna has been car-centric, the area is today mostly covered by wide roads and asphalt, thus limiting the number of green spaces. The only continuous green space in Nyhavna is the short promenade along the Nidelva river, located in the southwestern part of area. This promenade is, however, sharply abrupted by the port area where access is limited (Fig. 4).
Figure 2: above. Site location.To get closer to an adequate contingency plan that allows for a localized and flexible response to flooding in Nyhavna, we have been going through multiple tools and methods. This is described in the following section.
The group consists of students with backgrounds in urban planning, architecture, and urban design, respectively. This interdisciplinarity with different skill-sets and ways of seeing have been complementary and symbiotic in the process of developing the project.
The process has been iterative and non-linear, in the sense that we have been moving back and forth between analysis, design and synthesis. In this way, we have been able to review our approach as we have gained more knowledge; about the site, from the case studies, and from feedback from the faculty.
The main methodologies that have influenced the project is as follows:
Secondary research though studying maps and plans for the area has given us a foundational of knowledge to build our proposal on. Furthermore, we have studied research papers and projects that are relevant to the case.
Site visits added a phenomenological dimension to our discussions as we now had an experience with the spaces and scale of the site. We walked through the area while discussing our observations and ideas for potential interventions. We used photography for documentation.
GIS mapping has allowed us to analyze the spatial dimensions of the site, both the current situation and future scenarios of flooding. We have based our physical interventions on this spatial analysis.
Stakeholder mapping has given us the overview of the different actors related to the site. We have conducted the mapping both before and after a hypothetical disaster, which has given us an overview of how power-interest dynamics are altered in such situations.
Brainstorming and iterative sketching has opened for a creative process in forming a solution to the problem stated. This has been both useful in forming the management approach, however mainly in the process of ideating physical design interventions.
In today’s plans, flooding is a topic which is discussed to a highly varying degree. Some plans for Nyhavna mention flooding several times and present measures for how to reduce the risk for flooding. In other plans, however, the word flood is not mentioned at all.
A starting point for the planning of Nyhavna was the municipal sub-plan (kommunedelplan in Norwegian) which was approved in 2016. The municipal sub-plan emphasizes that Nyhavna should be a robust mixed-use neighborhood with high density (Trondheim kommune, 2016). The plan also highlights the need for sustainable design solutions, for example by having a variety of green spaces and good accessibility for pedestrians and bicyclists. The plan map (fig 8) shows that the areas closest to the sea (H1, G4 and F5) are not going to be used for residential purposes. However, the rest of the area will see relatively high-density apartment buildings, as well as some small parks. The promenade along Nidelva will be extended to cover the entire western edge of the area, thus also creating a “bluegreen” buffer between the sea and the residential parts of Nyhavna. The municipal sub-plan, however, does not discuss the flood danger in Nyhavna at all. It is discussed further in the so-called “quality program” (kvalitetsprogram in Norwegian) which acts as a supplement for the 2016 sub-plan. The quality program was approved in 2022.
The quality program discusses the dangers which Nyhavna could be facing in the upcoming decades. Here, flooding due to sea-level rise is reviewed and discussed more in detail. According to the qual-
ity program, no planned buildings should be affected even during events with extraordinarily high water levels during the 21st century. However, by 2150, the water can reach the ground floors in buildings located closest to the seaside (Trondheim kommune, 2022). Thus, it can be discussed whether the blue-green buffer should be extended further inland to protect the future inhabitants of Nyhavna from flooding. As seen in figure 12 the western part of Nyhavna, including the riverside along Nidelva will be prone to flooding in the future.
The municipality has received feedback on their plans from the so-called parallel project groups which consist of experts with different professional backgrounds. The project groups criticize the municipality for the lack of comprehensive plans for the blue-green structures, which can also lead to a higher flood risk. In addition, they propose a floodgate to protect the central parts of Nyhavna from future water level rise (Trondheim kommune, 2020).
The implementation of the plans discussed above has begun, as architectural contests have been taking place. In February 2023, the architect office Cobe won the architectural contest for the western side of Nyhavna (Nyhavna utvikling AS, 2023). Pictures and maps (fig 9 and 10) that are available online show that revetments are used as a coastal protection measure on the western side along the planned promenade. There is however a high level of uncertainty connected to whether the illustrations used in the contest will be implemented directly in reality.
Figure 8: Municipal subplan map.
Analysis:
• Several studies, such as topography and geographical location analysis, proximity to the sea, weather pattern analysis, climate change analysis, flood mapping, etc., are used to understand the risk.
Vulnerability:
• Nyhavna, being in very close proximity to the sea, is highly prone to flooding due to sea level rise, and its flat elevation increases its vulnerability even more
• Inconsistent weather patterns, including rain throughout the year and snow in long, cold winter
• Its current land use of being an industrial zone with waste landfills makes the ground surface prone to toxins
• The impermeable and hard surface characteristics prevent water infiltration into the ground, increasing runoff and flood risk
Potential Impact:
• Storm surge, in addition to cold weather and the usual rain
• Property damage
• Infrastructure damage: such as roads, bridges, and water treatment facilities, leads to extended power outages and repair times.
• Health impacts with the remobilization of pollutants and toxic chemicals.
• Economic disruption
• Displacement of people
• Environmental impacts: erosion, damage to ecosystems, and harm to wildlife, leading to long-term ecological damage.
Due to its coastal location and low elevation, some parts of Nyhavna are already today prone to flooding if water levels rise to unusually high levels. In Norway, coastal flooding often occurs during astronomical tide, combined with strong winds and low air pressure (Meteorologisk institutt, 2021). As low-pressure systems are at their strongest during the winter, flooding is also more common at that time of year. Figure 11 shows the current 1,000-year flood scenario, meaning that there is a likelihood of 1/1,000 of a flood at that magnitude occurring in a given year. In this scenario, inner parts of Nyhavna are affected, especially around Dora I and Dora II, not posing a major threat to the area as a whole. However, as the sea level will rise in the future, flooding will become more likely. In figure 12, a 1,000-year storm surge scenario for 2090 is visualized. Here, large parts of the western peninsula in Nyhavna, in addition to the area along Nidelva is covered by water. This increasing flood threat has to be taken into account in the urban design of Nyhavna.
• It is difficult to estimate the damage given the situation of the event to be in the future and on a land that is to be renovated completely, changing from industrial to mixed used zone. The estimations are based on assumptions following previous trend and case studies.
• Immediate response for the lives and well-being of the inhabitants are to be prioritized over property damage and development.
Figure 11: current 1,000 year flood scenario
SWOT analysis is conducted for a concise summary of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with the contingency plan for flood risk in the given scenario. This provides a clear understanding that leads to the framework of a contin-
gency plan. Through the SWOT analysis, it can be observed that the weakness of the context works as a guideline for choosing strategies to deal with threats by opening up opportunities backed up by strength
Analyzing the Power –Interest dynamic of the stakeholders, municipality, the developers and architects has the most interest as well as power as they are responsible of developing Nyhavna in the future. The residents, or future residents and property owners have interest but not as much power and thus it will better to integrate them with in the design process. The dynamics are assumed
to change during and post disaster, for example the student organizations, rescue teams, medical service providers, and NGOs will have shift in interest in case of the flood. The analysis helps to understand and plan the role of the actors of the contingency plan. The post-disaster stakeholder analysis will be presented as a part of the operational support plan in the contingency plan (fig. 22)
Through the project we have reviewed two cases to understand existing practices related to post-industrial urban development in flood-prone areas.
The first case is HafenCity in Hamburg, and the second case is Nordhavn in Copenhagen. Both areas were originally designed for heavy industry related to the harbor. As industry has closed and moved out of the city center, the areas have been redeveloped for mixed-use neighborhoods - similar to the case of Nyhavna. Both cases have been attractive for property developers due to their location by the sea and relatively close to the city center.
The HafenCity was originally outside of the city’s dike line, which meant that most parts would get flooded regularly. To protect the new development from flooding, the area is built as dwelling mounds with a minimum height of 7,5 meters above sea level. Streets and bridges are elevated, whereas buildings incorporate the mounds in their basements. The basements are designed as shops or parking areas, where all openings are protected by temporary flood gates in case of flood. The area has established a new institution, a flood protection community (Flutschutzgemeinschaften), which operates the flood gates. All property owners are automatically a part of this institution. Additionally, the costs of construction, maintenance and operation of the flood gates are covered by private stakeholders. Usually, this is covered by public authorities. In the case of HafenCity, the incentive for the private stakeholders to cover these expenses is the attractiveness of the location (Restemeyer et al. 2015). From this case, we will be inspired by the flexibility of the waterfront design. Furthermore, we will look at how to create incentives for citizens and developers to take responsibility for flood protection in Nyhavna.
Nordhavn is an example of how flood protection can be designed to become attractive urban spaces. The housing adjacent to the waterfront is kept at least 10 meters from the edge. This has two functions, 1) mitigating the risk of flooding of ground floors in the case of storm surge and 2) allowing for open space to be used for activities by the waterfront. All the edges along the waterfront have been designed as public spaces where flood-sensitive urban design becomes attractive spaces for recreation. A few examples are stairs stepping towards a sea-bath, which is now a popular spot for warm summer days. Revetments are popular for fishers. A wide pathway allows for joggers, cyclists, skaters and pedestrians to circulate the area, connecting to the rest of the city. From this case, we will be inspired by how urban design can be simultaneously flood sensitive and give space for public recreation (Nordhavnen Urban Strategy, 2009).
Figure 15: HafenCity waterfront as public space
Figure 16: HafenCity waterfront during flood
Figure 17: Nordhavn promenade
Choularton (2007, p. 3) defines contingency planning as “a process, in anticipation of potential crises, of developing strategies, arrangements and procedures to address the humanitarian needs of those adversely affected by crises”. When making a contingency plan, a scenario must be defined first. This helps in determining which kind of goals and measures are needed to enhance the preparedness of a society or a community. As we highlight throughout this report, making a contingency plan does not have to be a linear process. Reviewing the plans regularly and adapting to the changing society and environmental conditions are necessary in the making of a successful contingency plan. An overview of the contingency plan we have created can be found in table 1.
The response strategy consists of two important components, namely the immediate response after a disaster and long-term strategies to enhance disaster preparedness and to reduce vulnerability. The response strategy is a key component in the contingency plan, as it defines goals which are later used when implementing measures to reach these goals (Choularton, 2007).
In a hazardous situation, it is important that there are well-thought routines which are implemented as soon as the chances of a damaging flood increase. Initially, the inhabitants of Nyhavna should be informed on multiple platforms if a hazardous weather situation is expected. Here, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute is a key actor, as they can update if there are any changes in the weather forecasts. Based on the forecasts, the municipality can update the inhabitants of Nyhavna by sharing information, for example, by sending SMS. By doing so, the inhabitants and landowners will have time to protect their properties, for example, by placing sandbags where the risk for flooding is greatest. In case of a disastrous flood, evacuation of some, or even all, inhabitants might become necessary. Here, it is important to help those who are most vulnerable and to have clear evacuation routes for those who can evacuate on their own. Dora I and Dora II can be used as temporary evacuation shelters due to their large size.
The long-term strategies consist of goals which are set in accordance with the scenario and the challenges it poses. In Nyhavna’s case, the long-term strategies should contribute to reduce the risk of flooding. In the case of flooding, the extent of the effects should be minimized. How these goals can be reached is discussed in detail in the implementation plan.
The implementation plan consists of measures which are helpful in reaching the goals set in the response strategy (Choularton, 2007). Our implementation plan consists of measures that can be put into one of two main categories, hard and soft infrastructure. Hard infrastructure encompasses physical structures, such as buildings and other urban spaces, whereas soft infrastructure is connected to the social and institutional structures in a city (Dyer et al, 2019). The hard infrastructure is presented in a later section.
In this part of the contingency plan, is also where the chosen approaches, localized and flexible, become important. As Nyhavna’s urban character will change considerably in the coming years, it will become a unique area in Trondheim, with new residents and a growing tourist appeal due to its location by the fjord. These factors combined with Nyhavna having clear borders to its neighboring districts is why we have chosen the localized approach. The process of Nyhavna converting from an industrial area to a mixed-use area will be a time-consuming process, with a variety of construction processes taking place over the coming years. This allows us to use a flexible approach where measures that are to be implemented can be further developed and adapted in the coming years. As the sea level will continue to rise, it is crucial to continue to map the risks in Nyhavna and to adapt the measures in accordance with the perceived risks.
The importance of the community should not be underestimated in a contingency plan. The community should not only be involved in the creation of a contingency plan, but also in exercises where the contingency plan is put into action (Choularton, 2007). Therefore, it will be important to ensure that the new residents of Nyhavna actively participate in their community. For example, by having regular community meetings combined with basic response training, the inhabitants will gain an understanding of how they should react if the area is hit by a flood. As we do not have disaster management authority in our scenario, we are also proposing the establishment of a committee and collaboration of the community with other government authorities and organizations. This will be further represented in the operational support plan.
As the development of Nyhavna will take place gradually, the measures we are proposing are to be implemented in different stages of the development (see figure 21). In the short term, it is important to map out the risks which Nyhavna can be facing in the future. These can include flooding caused by sea level rise but also other natural hazards, such as landslides and flash floods caused by torrential rainfall. The mapping of risks gives an indication of where it is safe to construct housing and other facilities that people often use.
In the medium term, construction of buildings and other infrastructure in Nyhavna will commence. It is likely that this phase of construction will happen gradually and also continue in the long term. The company responsible for the physical development in Nyhavna has already stated that this phase will last for several decades. In this context, it is also important to evaluate the risks at regular intervals and if necessary, adapt the hard infrastructure in accordance with the risks.
When the first parts of Nyhavna will be suitable for people to move in, the soft infrastructure can gradually be set up. It is still uncertain when this will happen but, in our timeline, we have estimated that this could happen approximately in 10 years. This will also be a gradual process and that is also why regular meetings will play an important role, as in this way, new residents can quickly be integrated into the community.
The operational support plan is community-based with a framework that outlines the strategies and actions to be taken by the community of Nyhavna in response to the flood risk due to sea level rise. Due to the lack of a disaster management team, the plan focuses on enhancing the community with awareness and coordination and collaboration to mitigate the impact of floods and ensure the safety and well-being of community members.
Figure 20: Committee and stakeholders
Developing Risk Communication and Awareness in Public: Campaigns and drills to educate community members about flood risks, preparedness measures, and evacuation procedures and establish communication channels, such as community meetings, social media platforms, and emergency notification systems, to disseminate information before, during, and after flooding events
Develop Community Response and Support: Forming a committee that outlines the roles and responsibilities of community members, volunteers, and local organizations with clear protocols for issuing evacuation orders, establishing evacuation routes, and identifying safe shelter locations and trained in first aid, search and rescue, and other relevant skills
Collaboration and Partnerships: Collaborate with local authorities, such as the municipality, the Meteorological Institute to establish and maintain an effective early warning system that includes monitoring rainfall, river levels, and sea level rise indicators and coordinate with local emergency services, NGOs, and community leaders along with academic professionals and students from NTNU.
In the long term, as the sea level continues to rise, the preparedness for flooding will become even more important, especially in coastal areas, such as Nyhavna. Therefore, early warning systems should be put in place, allowing the residents of Nyhavna to be even better prepared when the possibility of flooding increases. In addition, in close cooperation with health services, the vulnerable groups should be identified so that they can receive aid first. It is also important to build up reserves of food and medicines in the evacuation shelters (Dora I and Dora II), in addition to obtaining power generators in case of power outages. In this way, the residents of Nyhavna will be more self-sufficient and can cope without relying on help arriving from outside of the area.
As we received a scenario with substantial resources, we have not considered the detailed costs for the measures which have been discussed. We have, however, chosen to further analyze the approximate costs and benefits for each of the measures, by conducting a cost-benefit analysis. In the cost-benefit analysis, we use three categories both for costs and benefits. These are low, medium, and high. By conducting the analysis, we will get an indication of which measures are most economically cost-effective. The cost-benefit analysis is visualized in table 1.
Soft infrastructure
1. Early warning + + +
2. Identify vulnerable groups + +
3. Build up reserves + + +
4. Establish committee + + +
5. Basic response training + + +
6. Regular community meetings + +
7. Awareness + + +
Hard infrastructure
8. Mapping risks + + + + +
9. Design of naturebased solutions + + + + +
10. Coastal protection + + + + + +
11. Street retrofitting + + + + +
The low-density of the area will allow for a distribution of land-use according to sensitivity to flooding. We will take an approach where buildings will be located in the least flood-prone area. The land-use of the area will be determined by the GIS analysis of predicted flooding during a 1000-year storm surge. This is illustrated in fig. 23 and 24. This will require a more dense urban fabric compared to if it was distributed across the entire Nyhavna. However, in this way it will be possible to free up space in the areas that are most prone to flooding. This open space will be used for recreational activities such as a waterfront park or a promenade for soft mobility.
The waterfront park is designed with the flexibility to allow for recurring flooding. In this way, flooding of precarious functions is prevented. The park will be a destination for recreation for Nyhavna as well as the larger Trondheim. A soft-mobility corridor will connect the park with existing cycle path. In this way, the park will both function as a flood-risk mitigating measure, as well as a strategic tool for place-making, connecting Nyhavna with the larger Trondheim.
The edges towards the sea are designed as flood mitigating structures. This could for example be revetments or gradual steps from the sea to the street level. These structure have the function of reducing the power of waves hitting the shore, and thus mitigating the flood risk. In addition to having a flood-mitigating function, the design of the edges will form attractive public spaces for residents and visitors. This can be spaces to sit and look over the sea, spaces to move with bike, skateboard, jogging or walking. Other features could be spaces for sports, urban gardening, artworks, etc. providing added value to the neighbourhood in the form of recreational spaces.
The existing streets in the area are wide as they have had to allow for large vehicles. They are covered in concrete with little space for soft mobility (see fig. 6). Through this proposal, streets will be retrofitted to prioritise soft mobility across Nyhavna. A part of the retrofitting will be to design nature-based solutions such as bioswales and retention ponds along the streets that have the function of collecting and directing water from the streets to the ground. In addition to absorbing excess water, they direct stormwater runoff towards the sea during heavy rain. This is a nature-based solution that, in addition to having a technical function, beautifies the streetscape with greenery, as well as enhancing the biodiversity. See fig 30 and 34.
As a part of the strategic plan, this proposal suggests a new bridge for soft mobility between Nyhavna and Ladestien. In this way, Nyhavna will be a connection between the central Trondheim and the coastal path, making the new area a point of reference for the wider Trondheim, rather than an end station. This invites soft mobility; cyclists, runners, pedestrians, to pass through the area, increasing the activity in the area and making it more vibrant.
Figure 27: Section of suggested waterfront design
Figure 28: Left. Nordhavn waterfront as public space
Figure 29: Right. Shop in street-level
Figure 30: Section of suggested street retrofitting
Figure 31: Left. Nordhavn street for soft mobility.
Figure 32: Right. Bioswale in Nordhavn.
Figure 33: Suggested waterfront design.
Figure 34: Suggested street retrofitting design.
Figure 35: Left. Case example of park under normal conditions Figure 36: Right. Case example of park during flood
The charts illustrate the contingency plan in three stages- Pre flood, during flood and post-flood. The first flow chart is on the pre-flood stage that shows the strategies’ preparation and implementation of soft and hard infrastructure of community-based approach and nature-based solutions. The pre flood stages focuses
on building resilience in community as well as infrastructure. The next chart on stages of during flood, long or short term, and post flood demonstrates different course of fast action in response to the situation that was possible because of the preparedness during preflood stage
Figure 39: Stage of pre-flood
Element in the contingency plan
Response strategy
When?
What?
Immediate response Warning
How? Who?
Give information on webpages, send SMS to inhabitants
Municipality, The Meteorological Institute
Damage limitation Place sandbags, protect properties Landowners, inhabitants
Evacuation Set up shelters and evacuation routes, help those in need
Municipality, NGOs, committee
Implementation plan
Long-term strategies
Short-term
Set goals for the implementation plan
Discuss and prioritize the most important measures
Identifying and mapping risks Map the flood risks and identify vulnerable areas
Medium-term Soft infrastructure Basic response training, regular community meetings, set up committee
Long-term Hard infrastructure Use nature-based solutions and flood-sensitive urban design
Operational support plan When residents move to the area
Establishment of committee
Allocation of areas of responsibility
Gather volunteers from different professional backgrounds
Municipality, landowners
Municipality, NTNU, NVE, DSB
Committee, NGOs, school
Municipality, landowners
Inhabitants, initially NGOs and the municipality can assist
Cooperation between stakeholders Municipality, NGOs, emergency services, inhabitants
Preparedness plan When residents move to the area
Early warning systems
Identification of vulnerable groups
Ensure that basic resources are available
Communication on different platforms Municipality, committee, The Meteorological Institute, DSB
Cooperation between residents and health services
Build up food and medicine reserves, obtain power generators
Municipality, health services, inhabitants
Committee, NGOs, inhabitants
Budget Consecutively
Cost benefit analysis (CBA)
Municipality, landowners
Throughout the contingency plan we have discussed and later presented measures which we see as adequate for protecting Nyhavna from the risk of flooding in the future. During the project, there were many aspects that were taken into account, and this called for the use of versatile methods.
Initially, we reviewed the existing plans for Nyhavna which had several flaws regarding the flood risk. As the parallel project groups pointed out in their report, the plans for the blue-green structures made by the municipality of Trondheim are insufficient and can contribute to a higher flood risk in Nyhavna. This is why we are suggesting the extension of the blue-green buffers between the sea and the buildings to be constructed. In this way, these buffer zones are allowed to be flooded when water levels rise. Otherwise, these areas will act as arenas for recreation and other outdoor activities.
To ensure that Nyhavna’s residents will not be affected by flooding, some very costly measures have been proposed, for example by the parallel project groups. These measures include the construction of a floodgate. We have however not seen the floodgate as a necessary measure for Nyhavna. By leaving the most flood-prone areas for recreational activities, the likelihood of flooding in the residential areas in Nyhavna will be very low. In addition, the regular community meetings and basic response training will reduce the eventual effects of a flood. A floodgate can be seen as an effective measure, but it would mainly protect the inner parts of Nyhavna, as it is not possible to build a floodgate where Nidelva meets the Trondheimsfjord. As this is the most flood-prone area, the benefits of a floodgate would be limited.
The case studies of HafenCity and Nordhavn that we presented earlier in the project, acted as an inspiration for our contingency plan. These examples highlight the need for the use of both hard and soft infrastructure to make coastal areas more resilient, as the sea level continues to rise. The case studies also highlight how measures created for flood protection measures indirectly can increase the attractiveness of urban spaces. In Nyhavna, this will be implemented by extending the current river promenade. This will make the areas along the promenade an attractive urban space for pedestrians and create a shortcut between Trondheim city center and the popular hiking trail of Ladestien. Simultaneously, the blue-green structure along the promenade will be an effective flood protection measure.
In addition to the hard infrastructure, the role of the community will be important in Nyhavna. Even though there, in general, is a weak community culture in Norwegian urban areas, Nyhavna could become a positive exception. As no one lives in the area at this time, it will be easier to build a strong community, by having frequent meetings and encouraging the residents to actively participate in the planning processes which affect their neighborhood.
The contingency plan for Nyhavna with the risk of flooding due to sea level rise takes a community-based approach that is localized and flexible. It involved preventing floods and emphasized more preparation for the flood, which seems more likely with the increasing rise in sea level. The people-centered contingency plan incorporated with nature-based solutions promotes the resilience and sustainability of Nyhavna.
The contingency plan was localized due to the unique characteristic of Nyhavna being an artificial impermeable land that narrowed down the strategies to be specific, on the other hand, the uncertainty of the flood situation demanded the plan be flexible in order to adapt accordingly. Though the availability of resources and the low density of the population in the area, along with the proposal of the redeveloping Nyhavna by the Trondheim Municipality, provided opportunities to look into strategies that involved hard infrastructure, the lack of disaster management came as a constraint to implementation and response plan. Analyzing the context and assessing the risk, the plan proposed the implementation of nature-based and sustainable solutions and infrastructures, both soft and hard, to reduce the flood risk and probable calamity. But more importantly, the plan was people-centric from the very beginning. The plan is to involve the people in the design phase of Nyhavna to incorporate them in the nature-based solution of hard infrastructure. The proposal of creating a buffer with stepped edges and recessed ground for water collection is not only environmentally sustainable but also takes into account the social aspect of the space. The spatial solution is to be designed as public spaces that would increase interaction and awareness in the community. This community involvement further facilitates the proposal of community committee formation and collaboration with government authorities, student organizations, and other institutions.
The contingency plan, being community-based, not only prepares Nyhavna for the risk of flooding but also gives power and a sense of ownership to the community. This, consequently, empowers the members, and makes them more responsible and adaptable to uncertainty, making the response fast and efficient in the face of continuously changing conditions. Moreover, the flexibility of the plan promotes a continuous learning process and adaptation as per the evolving situation with timely adjustment and preparation. By actively involving and engaging the local community in the whole process along with nature-based design solutions, we can leverage their knowledge, expertise, and resilience to create customized solutions that suit the specific needs and characteristics of Nyhavna and its surroundings as well as set an example of the community-based approach that can be adopted and adapted in other areas of Trondheim as well.
C40 Cities. (2021). Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - C40 Cities. URL: https://www.c40.org/what-we-do/scaling-up-climate-action/adaptationwater/the-future-we-dont-want/sea-level-rise/ (Accessed 26 April 2023).
Choularton, R. (2007). Contingency planning and humanitarian action. A review of practice. Humanitarian Practice Network. URL: https://www. humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/Contingency-Planning-and-Humanitarian-Action-A-Review-ofPractice.pdf (Accessed 24 May 2023).
Direktoratet for samfunnssikkerhet og beredskap (2009). Estimater av framtidig havnivåstigning i norske kystkommuner. DSB. URL: https://dibk.no/ globalassets/tema/klimatilpasning/havnivaastigning-rapp.pdf (Accessed 25 May 2023).
Dora. (n.d.). Doras historie. Dora Eiendom, URL: https://www.dora.no/om-oss/doras-historie (Accessed 16 May 2023).
Dyer, M., Dyer, R., Weng, M.-H., Wu, S., Grey, T., Gleeson, R. & Ferrari, T. G. (2019). Framework for soft and hard city infrastructures. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – Urban Design and Planning. 172(6). 219-227. https://doi.org/10.1680/jurdp.19.00021
Meteorologisk institutt. (2021). Varsel om høg vannstand. URL: https://www.met.no/vaer-og-klima/ekstremvaervarsler-og-andre-farevarsler/ vaerfenomener-som-kan-gi-farevarsel-fra-met/varsel-om-hoy-vannstand (Accessed 25 May 2023).
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Nyhavna. (n.d.). Historiske Nyhavna. Nyhavna Utvikling, URL: https://nyhavna.no/om-oss/historien/ (Accessed 16 May 2023).
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Restemeyer, B., Woltjer, J. & van den Brink, M. (2015) A strategy-based framework for assessing the flood resilience of cities – A Hamburg case study Planning Theory & Practice, 16:1, 45-62, DOI: 10.1080/14649357.2014.1000950
Statistisk sentralbyrå. (2021). Regionale befolkningsframskrivinger. URL: https://www.ssb.no/befolkning/befolkningsframskrivinger/statistikk/regionalebefolkningsframskrivinger (Accessed 26 April 2023).
Trondheim kommune. (2016). Nyhavna kommunedelplan. Planbeskrivelse med konsekvensutredninger. URL: https://www.trondheim.kommune.no/ globalassets/10-bilder-og-filer/10-byutvikling/byplankontoret/kommuneplan/kdp nyhavna k20110005/vedlegg-3-planbeskrivelse-datert-8.2.2016.pdf (Accessed 19 May 2023).
Trondheim kommune. (2020). Parallelloppdrag. “Offentlige rom i Nyhavna”. Norske arkitektkonkurranser (nr 523/2020). URL: https://www.trondheim. kommune.no/globalassets/10-bilder-og-filer/10-byutvikling/byplankontoret/1b off-ettersyn/2020/kvalitetsprogram-for-nyhavna/2.-vurderingsrapportfra-parallelloppdraget-offentlige-rom-pa-nyhavna.pdf (Accessed 19 May 2023).
Trondheim kommune. (2022). Kvalitetsprogram for Nyhavna. URL: https://www.trondheim.kommune.no/globalassets/10-bilder-og-filer/10-byutvikling/ byplankontoret/1d kunngj-annet-plan/2022/kvalitetsprogram-for-nyhavna/kvalitetsprogram-for-nyhavna-vedtatt-19.05.22.pdf (Accessed 19 May 2023).
Table 1: Budget. Author’s work.
Table 2: Contingency Plan. Author’s work.
Figure 1: Nyhavna. https://nyhavna.no/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/1.Nytt-toppbildejpg.jpg
Figure 2: Site location. Author’s work.
Figure 3: Aerial photo of Nyhavna (ca. 1952) https://nyhavna.no/omoss/historien/
Figure 4: Abrupted promenade. Author’s work.
Figure 5: The iterative process Author’s work.
Figure 6: Street in Nyhavna. Author’s work.
Figure 7: Stakeholder mapping - process. Author’s work.
Figure 8: Municipal subplan map. https://www.trondheim.kommune. no/globalassets/10-bilder-og-filer/10-byutvikling/byplankontoret/ kommuneplan/kdpnyhavnak20110005/vedlegg-1-plankartdatert-4.2.2016.pdf
Figure 9: Architectural plan for Nyhavna. https://www.domusweb.it/en/ sustainable-cities/gallery/2023/02/19/cobe-will-redesign-trondheimsindustrial-port.html
Figure 10: Architectural visualisation for the waterfront of Nyhavna. Ibid.
Figure 11: current 1,000 year flood scenario. Author’s work.
Figure 12: 2090 1,000 year storm surge scenario. Author’s work.
Figure 13: SWOT analysis. Author’s work.
Figure 14: Stakeholder analysis pre-disaster. Author’s work.
Figure 15: HafenCity waterfront as public space. Restemeyer et al. (2015)
Figure 16: HafenCity waterfront during flood. Ibid.
Figure 17: Nordhavn promenade. https://nrep.se/wp-content/ uploads/2020/11/Nordhavn-sommer192-1600px-1180x570.jpg
Figure 18: Nordhavn harbour bath. https://samvirke.dk/sites/default/ files/styles/imagecomponentlarge/public/2021-06/Sandkaj%20 Nordhavn.jpg.jpeg?itok=5hvJjfG2
Figure 19: Flood risk management cycle. Author’s work.
Figure 20: Committee and stakeholders. Author’s work.
Figure 21: Timeline. Author’s work.
Figure 22: Stakeholder analysis post disaster. Author’s work.
Figure 23: 2090 1,000 year storm surge scenario. Author’s work.
Figure 24: Zoning according to GIS analysis. Author’s work.
Figure 25: Waterfront park. Author’s work.
Figure 26: Soft mobility network. Author’s work.
Figure 27: Section of suggested waterfront design. Author’s work.
Figure 28: Nordhavn waterfront as public space. https://pbs.twimg. com/media/DKf1FiUXoAMRVVq.jpg:large
Figure 29: Shop in street-level. https://nrep.dk/wp-content/ uploads/2020/11/nordhavn092-scaled.jpg
Figure 30: Section of suggested street retrofitting. Author’s work.
Figure 31: Nordhavn street for soft mobility. https:// slowtourscopenhagen.dk/wp-content/uploads/photo-gallery/ nordhavn2/kielgade.jpg?bwg=1658408807
Figure 32: Bioswale in Nordhavn. https://cobe.dk/uploads/places/ nordhavn/1600xAUTOcropcenter-center100none/8433/441cobenordha vndockbikes.webp
Figure 33: Suggested waterfront design. Author’s work.
Figure 34: Suggested street retrofitting design. Author’s work.
Figure 35: Case example of part under normal conditions. https:// www.sla.dk/cases/hans-tavsens-park-and-korsgade/
Figure 36: Case example of park during flood. https://www. dagensbyggeri.dk/artikel/90290-vinderprojekt-for-skybrudslosningerpa-norrebro-fundet
Figure 37: Case example of recessed public space under normal conditions. https://images.theconversation.com/ files/248384/original/file-20181203-194956-w79d5b.jpg?ixlib=rb1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip
Figure 38: Case example of space during flood. Ibid.
Figure 39: Stage of pre-flood. Author’s work.
Figure 40: During flood and post-flood. Author’s work.
Figure 41: Nyhavna and Brattøra. https://www.sintef.no/siste-nytt/2020/ sintef-og-trondheim-havn-iks-inngar-strategisk-samarbeidsavtale/
Ami Joshi Miguel Rosas
Aksel Fosshagen
Lisa Marielle Nordbø Aanestad
There is a pressing urban and developmental issue that defines the major discussions around human development and evolution; today, that discussion is around climate change and sea level rise causing islands, coastal cities and towns to submerge. While urban development studies play a huge role in managing and mitigating these risks, there is a need to educate, plan and execute measures to safeguard people from the potential effects of climate change related future hazards. These measures can be called contingency plans, and contain methods to prepare for the risk, form rescue and relief operations, seek out and include stakeholders at different levels of operation with the aim to minimize loss to life, livelihoods, resources and property.
The hypothetical case explained in this report is explored through the following parameters.
Trondheim is a:
-High density city
-Facing flooding due to sea level rise
-The city does not have a disaster management authority
-Has substantial resources
The Urban Contingency Practice and Planning course aims to look at hypothetical scenarios in cities and come up with proposals to deal with flooding due to heavy rainfall and sea level rise in areas of different densities. The course looks at identifying threats and risks, educating communities and building resilience mechanisms, and methods of potentially living with the new realities that are shaped by humanities’ actions. Disaster management and disaster risk reduction are the fundamental goals to help achieve new ways of dealing and shaping urban development through forming plans for short, medium and long term visions for the city.
Contingency plans are plans formulated to address specific, future events that might have a significant impact on the existing structures. These are elaborate documents that inform on the course of action before, during and after a disaster hits. The nature of the contingency plan depends on several factors including the severity of the risk, the nature of imminent threat, possibility of repeating, time of preparation at disposal, etc. Since this case looks at a potential ‘what if’ situation in a specific context, it can be called a scenario plan.
Contingency plans are prepared with certain principles that bind the nature of the proposal. These principles help to contextualize the plans and make them suitable for specific areas keeping in mind the values, ideals and ideas on which the society it is made for. The possibility of Grilstad being affected by flooding due to sea level rise is a long term one, making it possible to explore various flexible alternatives and learn by trial and error over a period of time. The flexibility of the approach affords the possibility to combine learnings from the trials, build on existing ideas and relook at those that have a good foundation but failed in their execution. This allows them to incrementally build on ideas with the help of different stakeholders at multiple levels.
This project looks at the hypothetical scenario and studies the new development proposed by reclaiming land in the fjord in the area of Grilstad, Ranheim. The project is a recent and ongoing development of residential housing apartments called Grilstad Marina. The project seeks to house over 3000 people by building family homes along with all amenities including schools, grocery stores, playgrounds, etc. The city council and Trondheim Kommune predict a rise in sea level of up to 3 meters by 2100 in and around Grilstad, which also lay the foundation for the new development in Grilstad Marina to be planned accordingly (Trondheim kommune, 2018).
The case of contingency planning in Trondheim offers a healthy environment to plan, collaborate and execute the ideas due to the healthy environment with a responsible network of multi level governance system that is collaborative in nature and transparent to its people; the people lead a healthy life and have access to social welfare provided by the state; the scenario mentions of a presence
of substantial funds with the state to carry out necessary work to safeguard the people. These conditions lay a suitable foundation to create a system that can prepare for the contingency.
Figure 7: Community Resilience Framework.
Source: The International Consortiuum of Organisational Resilience
Disaster is a severe loss of the functioning of a society or a nation initiating a broad material, economic, human or environmental loss. A disaster is the outcome of the combination of risks, vulnerability and inadequate measures to lower the probable negative consequences of the hazard (Wisner et al. 2012).
Risk is the possibility of expected losses or destructive consequences resulting from interactions between human or natural caused threats and vulnerable circumstances. Risk results from the interactions of exposure, hazard and vulnerability.
A Contingency plan is the synthesis of the analysis, discussions and decisions made during the planning process. It is a way of communicating the ideas to people who are not familiar with the planning process. The fundamentals of a contingency plan is to plan for the unpredictable crisis.
Uncertainty refers to a state or condition characterized by a lack of knowledge, predictability, or certainty about future outcomes, events, or circumstances. It is the absence of precise or reliable information that can reliably determine the likelihood, direction, or consequences of a particular situation. Uncertainty often arises due to incomplete or ambiguous data, multiple possible outcomes, or the presence of factors that are difficult to quantify or anticipate (Christensen 2007)
Hazard is used to define the possible incidence of socio-natural or natural crisis that may have social, economic, physical and environmental impact in a defined area and over a period of time
Recovery refers to the process of returning to a previous or improved state after experiencing a setback, illness, trauma, or challenging situation. It emphasizes resilience, growth, and the pursuit of a meaningful and fulfilling life beyond adversity (Jha, 2010).
Response refers to an action, behavior, or answer that is given in reaction to a stimulus, situation, or request. It is the act of replying, reacting, or providing a feedback or solution to a particular input, event, or inquiry (Jha, 2010).
Vulnerability is determined by social, physical, environmental and economic aspects, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impacts from hazards (Singh, 2014).
The hypothetical scenario focuses on flooding due to sea level rise in a high density area in Trondheim. The methodology used in the process of making this study spans across different means to gather, analyse and infer from primary and secondary sources of data. We studied about the conversations on sea level rise and its projected effect on high altitude cities like Trondheim. Parallely, a search for suitable sites began using different map sources and overlaying population density maps of the area with flooding risk due to sea level rise. Research suggested that certain areas of the coast of Nor-
way could face up to 3m rise in sea level in the Trondheimsfjorden area (www.karteverket.no).
The area we decided on was Grilstad Marina because that’s an artificial island with around 1000 housings by the end of development. While the natural elevation in Trondheim protects most neighbourhoods and makes it possible to conduct rescue and relief operations with pre-planning, an artificial construction such as the Marina ought to take more precautions. A review of the development plans
searching for appropriate context in Trondheim County
site documentation using visualisation and mapping techniques
site visits to conduct stakeholder interviews to get insight on the level of information they have
research about the history of flooding, social fabric of community, resources available
Kommune suggests that all new constructions must take into account a minimum of 3m rise in sea level by year 2100 (Trondheim Kommune, 2018).
A visit to the site was conducted to get a better understanding of the area. Visual mapping and photo documentation of the site allowed us to sketch over, analyse and ideate on the existing resilience measures on site. The site visit gave us a better understanding of how the buildings and the environment are connected. We observed that only one main road and two pedestrian bridges connect
the island area to the mainland. This is a barrier for the safety of the area in the case of a storm surge or a rising sea level.
Further, structured and semi-structured interviews with the residents of the area gave us insight into the level of information that the community has about future risks. The general consensus among people is that the possibility of the area flooding is too low to be a concern given the area is quite high above sea level, and there is no record of previous flooding.
Figure 9: Photodocumentation during one of the site visits. Source: AuthorsPedestrian path
flood barriers needed to slow down tidal action Pedestrian path
path
Marina for small boats and parking
Private underground parking
Pedestrian path
Housing
Pedestrian path
Marina for small boats and parking
Breakwater
Housing
Pedestrian path
paths and roads are lower. need to make rescue paths accessible in case of increased sea level
underground parking
Marina for small boats and parking
Housing
Pedestrian path
Breakwater trees and plants to slow down tidal action
The case area is in Ranheim and contains the new development Grilstad Marina and Grilstadfjæra. Grilstad Marina is currently still under construction, starting up in 2010 and is planning on finishing between 2028-2030 (Koteng, 2023). The area contains mixed-use, industrial offices and commercial buildings, dominated by residential housing. The construction is developed on artificial land/filling compounds, built on marine clay. The area is surrounded by Trondheimsfjorden and is connected to the mainland by one main road in the middle and two pedestrian bridges on the east and the west sides of the area. The main road is planned to handle emergency vehicles to the main entrances of the area. There is a lot of area dedicated to marina for smaller boats (Trondheim kommune, 2018).
For residential and commercial buildings, there will be underground parking solutions. These will be reached by car by ramps from the main road, with staircases and elevators for access to the buildings from the parking garages. Visitors and customers can use the surface level parking spots (Trondheim kommune, 2018).
The topography of the area is flat, with rising elevation on the southern part of the section. The area has a few green structures today, and more planned for the current constructions. Little natural vegetation on the surface of the area in the construction and newly developed areas. The planned solution for overwater is to lead
the water by green structures and adjacent from built structures, leading to pools that will even out the stream of water (Trondheim kommune, 2018).
According to NGU, parts of the northern breakwater are sinking up to 20 mm each year (NGU, 2023). This data does not affect the housing development but will have an affect on how well the breakwater will handle flow streams and waves. The area has no risk from being affected by landslides as the marine clay is solid and the filling is constructed to handle waves and water flow. The area is considered to have a yellow risk for flood from sea-level rise and rainwater, which means there are needed measures for potential risks. The buildings have to consider the potential impact of storm surge and sea level rise and have to calculate the housing development based on 3 meters by the year 2100. The development has been planned accordingly with Trondheim municipality and the municipality plan. Grilstad Marina is a private company (Trondheim kommune, 2018). There are different facilities in the area; Flipper café, Coop Extra (food shop), commercial offices, Grillstadfjæra kindergarten, and a kayak rental.
The area has several different stakeholders on local, regional, and national level. On a local level the stakeholders are the developers Grilstad Marina AS and Trondheim municipality, with the municipality holding the responsibility of the area. On a local level the businesses, citizens and the community have a strong influence. It is on this level the local businesses, facilities and residents also hold influence. On a regional level there is Trøndelag county, the hospital St. Olav’s and emergency services. On a national level there are several stakeholders that are involved with policy frameworks such as Statens Vegvesen (the National Road Authority), Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), and the Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB) – the civil defense.
There is no flood here.
No, we haven’t thought about any flood risks.
Resident 2
There is no flood here.
There has been no informa�on about flood risks.
No, we haven’t thought about any flood risks.
Flooding is not something we have thought about.
Resident 4
There has been no informa�on about flood risks.
no flood here.
No, we are not really concerned about the risk of flooding here.
Flooding is not something we have thought about.
No, we haven’t thought about any flood risks. no about
Resident 3
We feel very safe in this area, it is a nice place for our children!
is no flood here.
are not really concerned about the risk flooding here.
There is no flood here.
Visitor 1
There has been no informa�on about flood risks.
No, we are not really concerned about the risk of flooding here.
Visitor 2
There is no flood here.
There is no flood here.
There has been no informa�on about flood risks.
There has been no informa�on about flood risks.
No, we are not really concerned about the risk of flooding here.
No, we are not really concerned about the risk of flooding here.
We feel very safe in this area, it is a nice place for our children!
No, we haven’t thought about any flood risks.
We feel very safe in this area, it is a nice place for our children!
Flooding is not something we have thought about. really the risk here.
Resident 1
We feel very safe in this area, it is a nice place for our children!
No, we haven’t thought about any flood risks. been no about Flooding is not something we have thought about. really the risk here.
Flooding is not something we have thought about.
We feel very safe in this area, it is a nice place for our children!
No, we haven’t thought about any flood risks.
No, we haven’t thought about any flood risks.
Flooding is not something we have thought about.
Flooding is not something we have thought about.
We feel very safe in this area, it is a nice place for our children!
We feel very safe in this area, it is a nice place for our children!
COMMUNITY AND CITIZENS
Grilstad�æra kindergarten
Land-owners
Grilstad gård
HEALTH INSTITUTIONS
Falkenborg helsestasjon
St Olavs
High-density
Reliefandhelp
LOCAL BUISNESSES
Extra Grilstad
Flipper Café
Industrial buisnesses
Lack of knowledge/information Communication failure Sea-level rise and ooding
Management Management
DEVELOPERS
Grilstad Marina AS
Koteng
Support and strength
TRONDHEIM KOMMUNE
TRØNDELAG FYLKESKOMMUNE
Kayak rental
Support and collabera�on Support
THE NORWEGIAN DIRECTORATE FOR CIVIL PROTECTION
Management Management
NATIONAL ROAD AUTHORITY
Management
NORWEGIAN WATER AND ENERGY DIRECTORATE
FLOODING DUE TO SEA-LEVEL RISE
Help Involved
Support Support Support Support
DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY
Relief and help
PREDICTABILITY
PREDICTABILITY
FINANCIAL SUPPORT
Sea-level rise and ooding
EMERGENCY SERVICES
Police Fire department Civil defence
Self-help Support and management Support
Sinking of island
Lack of knowledge/information
Communication failure
Denmark is a country in which the sea plays an important role, its capital Copenhagen is built on islands both natural and man-made, this close relationship with water makes flooding due to storm surges or rise in sea level an important risk to consider.
Lynetteholm, is an artificial peninsula devised to shield Copenhagen from rising sea levels, while also providing the city with space for 35.000 new inhabitants, an “adaptable coastal landscape” will provide different types of coastlines dampening the effects of storm surges taking energy from the waves before hitting land, the use of this adaptable coastline is both as a public space and defensive mechanism.
Although it is arguable that the situation that Copenhagen faces is different from the one we find in Trondheim, the idea of a man-made peninsula, or as is the case of Grilstad, an artificial island can be used not only as a development opportunity but as a prevention device that can help to reduce flooding risk while providing public space is interesting and can be useful for a future vision of Grilstad or similar developments.
The city of Venice has always been in close contact with the sea, since its foundation the city has experienced a natural phenomenon known as acqua alta “high waters”, where the natural flow of water covers the Venetian streets usually during the autumn and winter periods.
This increase in sea level usually covers between 10% and 15% of the city and more than 80% in exceptional circumstances with a rise in sea level of 140 cm.
To cope with this situation the city has developed several tools to either prevent flooding or maintain functionality and mobility, one of these tools is the use of elevated walkways throughout the city providing access to the main tourist attractions and connecting several parts of the city for pedestrians, a variation of this mechanism can also be used in Grilstad where floating walkways could be implemented in case of a rise in sea level, allowing mobilization and accessibility in case of emergencies.
Figure 19: Copenhagen’s Lynetteholm island plan. Source: Bloomberg, By and Havn, The Daily Scandinavian Figure 21: Map of elevated walkway network in Venice. Source: AuthorsRotterdam is one of the most flood-resilient cities in the world, to accomplish this the city uses several adaptation strategies to prevent flooding caused by heavy rains or a possible rise in sea levels.
Within these strategies, we find the creation of water squares which are public spaces built lower than the normal street level, creating new space for water in the event of heavy rains, Benthemplein, the first square created with this functionality has the capacity to retain 2 million liters of water while also providing public space for the city during dry weather.
The implementation of this type of space can reduce the consequences of flooding, by creating a flexible landscape we can prevent water from reaching more vulnerable places like buildings or roads, allowing Grilstad to function even in the event of a flood.
Making pathways for easy mobility even during high tide.
This will be crucial as the roads and pathways in Grilstad Marina AS are currently low at +3m. The estimated sea level rise is 3m.
These could be the ‘ridges’.
A network of ‘valleys’ can navigate the sea water to desired places using channels both under and over ground.
The water squares is easily applicable in Grilstad Marina AS as the neighborhood must have public spaces for the community to interact in various ways.
Public spaces in the valleys and mobility access on ridges
Figure 23: Water Squares of Rotterdam during monsoons. Source: OMA Architects
Figure 26: Spatial strategy diagram. Source: Authors
Figure 24: Learnings from Venice and the derived spatial strategy. Source: Authors
Figure 25: Learnings from Rotterdam and the derived spatial strategy. Source: Authors
Figure 22: Water Squares of Rotterdam in dry season. Source: OMA Architects
The hypothetical scenario is to make a contingency plan for Grilstad Marina and the surrounding low altitude areas in order to withstand flooding due to sea level rise. The suggested rise in sea level by up to 3m is predicted to occur over the next 70 years, making it possible to create processes that can aid rescue and relief, create community networks and action groups that can support the residents with special needs, and also test a series of flexible spatial strategies incrementally that can be useful in creating resilience within the built form. However, the city does not have a Disaster Management Authority yet, and that must be the first step of the contingency plan. The Disaster Management Authority consists of several agencies with the power, capacity and resources to create required soft infrastructure and make scenario plans based on the information available.
Forming the Disaster Management Authority (DMA)
Disaster Management Authorities are formed with the primary responsibility to protect life, property and environment by establishing plans that respond to and recover from natural and man-made disasters (Department of Home Affairs, AU). The DMA comprises experts in various fields who have the capacity to make informed decisions and create plans to protect the local communities in the face of disaster and provide them with training to respond and recover from the crisis. The DMA does these tasks by:
Funding programmes and initiatives that prepare communities before the disaster, teach them ways to respond during the disaster and methods to recover post-disaster
Collaborating with communities and other groups, capacity building by conducting necessary training, sharing information and creating networks with other communities that are dealing with the same issues
Leadership: providing knowledge, awareness of new systems and trends in disaster management. DMA coordinates response at multiple levels of governance, devise policies for disaster risk reduction and create strategies contextual to vulnerable areas by using inclusive planning methods
In the case of Trondheim, the first step is to create the Disaster Management Authority. It would consist of experts from Trondheim Kommune, City Council, the NVE, Fire Department, the Civil Defense guard from governmental institutions. Representatives of institutions like St. Olav’s Hospital, NTNU will also be a part of the organization to provide support in logistics, sharing resources and provide assistance in ideation and planning. The public transport authority of Trondheim, AtB, will also be a part of the DMA to aid in rescue and relief planning.
After the formation of the DMA, the first steps will be to identify the stakeholders at the local level of the site in question, Grilstad. Identifying their strengths and weaknesses and spreading awareness about the risk and vulnerability of the area is important as most residents currently are unaware of these vulnerabilities.
...to protect the high density area of Grilstad...
...from flooding due to sea level rise (expected to be about 3m by 2100)...
...using the substantial resources at the disposal of the DMA and Trondheim Kommune
The contingency plan will be made in three stages:
Short term: with the intent of
i) Community building and awareness
ii) Early warning systems
iii) Identifying rescue areas and conducting rescue drills
Mid term: with the intent of testing nature based solutions and engaging the community in collective activities
i) green areas for community activities
ii) open space network with the capacity to hold water
iii) flexible and incremental development of support infrastructure for flood protection
Long term: creating guidelines for such development by identifying practices that best suit the context. The proposal for the long term is a visualization of what could be possible. However, the actual possibilities may be different depending on the success or failures of the proposed short and mid term strategies.
The success of the long term vision may also need changes to the building codes and by-laws. This project does not delve into these aspects due to time constraints.
For the Grilstad community the implementation plan is oriented towards an incremental approach with the objective to create an adaptable community capable of functioning even in the extreme event of a rise in sea level, the plan is built around a short-, mid-, and long-term strategies, taking advantage of the financial resources available to create a guideline for similar type of developments.
Starting after the implementation of the “immediate plan”, this strategy is based on building the community as an entity capable of organizing itself in case of a hazardous event, this is especially important in Grilstad since is a young community not older than 4 or 5 years, information will be provided to the residents about the possible situations that a rise in sea levels could cause in the area, pointing out gathering safe zones and conducting rescue drills to reduce possible injuries or obstructions that could affect the effectivity of the first responders.
need
Grilstad is at risk of flooding due to sea level rise. nature based solutions can help!
Nature based solutions for making flood barriers
lets build ourselves a garden that can help with flood
to spread awareness about flooding and risks
Studying the example from Venice where elevated walkways are used to provide mobility for pedestrians when in high waters, in Grilstad a variation of this approach is proposed as floating walkways, used to establish new connections to the mainland allowing people and first responders to access the area in case the normal routes of access are compromised, or new ones are required to improve mobilization and rescue efforts. For this strategy, a previous study of the area helps us to identify the best placement for the floating walkways ensuring easy access to them.
Figure 31: Visualisation of floating walkways that can be used for emergency rescue. Source: Authors
Similar to the water squares in Rotterdam, this approach proposes the creation of a public space network capable of holding water, to implement this strategy the current public spaces on site (gardens and children’s parks), are replaced with pools that will keep their functionality as public space while adding the capacity of holding water, preventing walkways to be affected by the flood.
The aim of this approach is to generate adaptability, allowing the community to function “normally” even after experiencing this type of event.
In addition to this, removable flood barriers could be installed in front of underground garages to prevent damage.
Children’s park designed as water pools during flooding. The system of valleys will ensure these areas get flooded first during high tides and sea level rise
Community activities like gardening help create a network among residents while also allowing them to communicate
Making use of ridge-valley system to create elevated walkways
Amphitheaters as public space
Figure 33b: Section AA’ visualised during storm surge and with sea level rise. The ridges become ‘elevated walkways’ that remain functional during flooding and storm surge. Source: Grilstad Marina AS edited by Authors
This phase constitutes a vision for the future of the Grilstad area, expanding on the context of the man-made island, an extension of this project that aims to add artificial land surrounding the island,
Storm surge protection through a network of green open spaces for public use, uses nature based solutions
creating a new coastline of parks and public space capable of reducing the effects of storms surges and mitigating the effects of flooding while improving the urban environment.
Community activity open green areas for food gardens, play parks that become pools of water during flooding
The vision for Grilstad and future projects with a similar concept is one where artificial land is created not only to serve as opportunities for new urban development but also as protective barriers
Water squares: these are a network of open public space that become water pools during flood times. This mimics the natural topography of the Trondheimsfjorden
that can prevent the consequences of flooding to affect them and already established urban entities while preserving a high level of functionality in the worst-case scenario.
Islands of play and protection. These modules collectively form a network of off-shore tide breakers and allow crucial time to conduct rescue operations
The success and effectiveness of a contingency plan highly depends on the nature of support, availability of resources and collaboration between multiple levels of governance. Flood protection plans are drawn on a regional or national level. However, their implementation should occur on a local and site level keeping in mind the context and socio-cultural experiences of the community and its leaders. While the implementation of spatial adaptations is important, the benefits of strengthening soft infrastructure should not be underestimated. Communication, information sharing and ideation on multiple fronts is key to scenario planning. Better communication between multiple scales of governance ensures responding to new available information in a timely manner, allowing to change course as needed.
Operational support planning guarantees that all involved stakeholders are aware of their own responsibilities as well as those of others. This allows smooth communication while preparing for the disaster, effective operation during disaster and appropriate post disaster learning on all scales of operation.
Preparedness activities increase a community’s ability to respond when a disaster occurs. Typical preparedness measures include developing mutual aid agreements and memorandums of understanding, training for both response personnel and concerned citizens, conducting disaster exercises to reinforce training and test capabilities, and presenting all-hazards education campaigns.
Early warning systems and hazard drills should be conducted in a timely manner to make the residents and people in surrounding areas aware of their roles and responsibilities in times of crises. This helps reduce confusion in case of an eventuality, prior training experience keeps the people calmer and proactive in helping themselves and those around.
Figure 39b: Preparedness measures. Source: Disaster Management Manual, www.piarc.com
Figure 39a: Rescue areas for risk zones. Source: Authors
high risk
Community building activities play a major role in making bonds and establishing an understanding among residents. It is especially important in the case of Grilstad as the residents are newcomers into the area, owing to the fact that Gristad is a newly constructed housing area. The community’s ability to trust and depend on each other, contribute to the larger goals of creating safeguards around the area using nature based solutions is key in ensuring response during a crisis.
Nature based solutions implemented as an open space network for public use on the extents of vulnerable areas can act as tide breakers. This is crucial in cases of storm surge protection and giving enough time to residents to respond. The concept of dugnads can be useful in activating people’s skills, time and efforts in building these spaces for use and protection.
In the Grilstad Marina area, there is a higher possibility of being affected due to sea level rise. The island is just over 3m above sea level currently while some parts are sinking slowly. This calls for a special need to ensure that people can still evacuate with relative ease. A system of temporary roads or passarella can be made to ensure mobility during flooding. Passarella have been used in Venice to aid pedestrian movement during ‘high water’ or high tide. This is a network of roads that appear when needed on specific routes as guides to navigate the city. Such ideas can be ideated and implemented in the low lying coastal areas like Grilstad Marina.
Create
Budget can drastically affect the nature and ability to propose and implement strategies in a contingency plan. Our scenario affords us substantial resources to plan for flooding due to sea level rise. Forming a Disaster Management Authority could potentially be one of the largest costs incurred, but it ensures the presence and collaboration of experts to deal with the risks and vulnerabilities.
The principles of this proposal are flexibility and incrementality, making it important to gradually build up on ideas and take next steps based on the results and effectiveness of the strategies. The strategies take cue from the context of the Trondheimsfjorden. The topography of the fjord protects life and livelihoods due to the stark
modulations in the land forms. The idea of proposing a system that mimics ridges and valleys is intentional, allowing water to collect in the troughs and making it possible for people to rescue from the ridges.
We implement a series of nature based solutions in our context as some of the first steps. These are done to reinforce one of the biggest resources in times of crisis- the community. However, these are done as a series of experiments on a small scale rather than replicating the same module everywhere. This requires both skill and budget.
Here, we use the table to do a cost-benefit analysis of the proposed spatial strategies and other support infrastructure building.
mapping, risk analysis and warnings Preparedness
Flood mapping, risk analysis and early warnings
mapping, risk analysis and early warnings Preparedness
Iden�fying rescue areas and conduct rescue drills
Iden�fying rescue areas conduct rescue drills Preparedness
Iden�fying rescue areas conduct rescue drills Preparedness
Preparedness
Floa�ng walk-ways
Floa�ng walk-ways
Floa�ng walk-ways
to areas for community ac�vi�es Collec�on
community ac�vi�es
Green areas for community ac�vi�es
water - open space network capacity to hold water
Watersquares - open space network with the capacity to hold water
Watersquares - open space network the capacity to hold water Collec�on
The approach is based on the scenario of flooding due to sea level rise in Grilstad Marina, with incremental and flexible measures to achieve the long-term goal of providing rescue, resilience and protection to the area. As the area is built on low elevated artificial land and is surrounded by water, the area is at risk of being affected by the predicted sea-level rise due to climate change. Potential risk of flooding affects the placement and construction of the area, and appropriate measures must be taken to 1) plan for emergency rescue, 2) improve the resilience quality of the island and 3) make construction of such islands safer and adaptable to sea level rise in the future. The approach taken for our plan builds incrementally on nature based ideas and contextual spatial strategies derived from the Trondheimsfjorden. The collective action of the proposed spatial strategies attempt to imitate the topography and network of valleys and ridges. The idea is to build safe passages on higher lands and public use spaces to be designed as green corridors that can reduce the impact of tidal action on the neighborhood.
Awareness of the vulnerability and risk are relatively low as the larger portion of the site is still new and under development, and the community is still young. Strengthening the community and building relationships between citizens and local stakeholders will be a crucial part to ensure the approach is successful in all the stages of the plan. To develop the approach, a lot of research has to be analyzed to understand the potential outcomes and scenarios. The plan recognizes the different stages and measures needed to both prepare and handle the impact of flooding in the area. Political influences and frameworks need to recognize the plans in order to achieve the results needed to minimize damage to the community and the physical structures in the area.
As our strategy is incremental, it has been prepared in short, medium and long term stages in order to build resilience over time. This compliments the flexible aspect of the approach, as it leaves room for discussion and changes to improve it over time from education, further development and experience from smaller events. All stakeholders involved need to recognize the approach and its goals for the policy to have influence before, during and after a possible flooding event. National and regional stakeholders have a lot of political influence and power that can provide structure to the policy making of the approach, and it is vital that the communication between them and the local stakeholders are clear on the measures that are needed on a financial and supportive level. The municipality needs to make sure the measures are communicated well to the local stakeholders and the community, and provide assistance to ensure awareness of the rescue areas and precautions.
Our scenario allows for availability of substantial finances. However, the measures proposed are nature based and community forward, with the aim to create a system where people can influence local implementation of flood resilience efforts. This comes from a vision to acknowledge that resilience efforts may need to be more local, knowledge and skills need to be available for people to be able to understand and develop resilience.
The flexible and incremental principles of the plan allow us to make rational, small scale decisions that can be scaled up as needed. The trial and error method of several ideas allows for changes to be made at different stages based on the learnings according to the response of the stakeholders involved.
Some of the high cost proposals are made for the long term, as these can be changed or evolved in the future. The scenario also allows for constructing structures to the development, such as water barricades, water squares, and artificial land due to the substantial budget. The financial approach allows for more measures to be considered to secure the area. If the budget was more limited, the measures might have been more based on self-help and emergency services, with less finances to fund new constructions.
The report has investigated possible measures that can be taken during the given scenario, in how to prepare the community and relevant stakeholders, and how to reduce the potential damages. The short, medium and long term approach will give the opportunity to build resilience over time and engage every stakeholder involved in the scenario. The financial freedom to construct physical measures provides the area long term secure measures that reduce the impact of flooding and damages. However, the success of the approach is dependent on good communication between stakeholders and the community, and that national stakeholders provide political frameworks that support this disaster management approach to Grilstad Marina. As the site is still under development and the community is young, community building and awareness of the flood risk in the area can mitigate the future risks considerably.
Birkmann, J. (2015). Chapter 1: “Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards and Climate Change in Europe”. Retrieved 26.05.2023. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9780124105287/assessment-of-vulnerability-to-natural-hazards?via=ihub=)
Choularton, R. (2007). Contingency planning and humanitarian action A review of practice. Humanitarian Practice Network
Christensen, K. (2007). Journal of the American Planning Association. Coping with Uncertainty in Planning
Norges geologiske undersøkelse. (2023) Interactive map. Innsynking https://insar.ngu.no/ [retrieved 12.05.23]
Koteng. (2023) Grilstad Marina https://koteng.no/koteng-bolig/boligprosjekter/grilstad-marina/ [retrieved 21.05.23]
Trondheim kommune. (2018) Planbeskrivelse. Detaljeregulering av Grilstadfjæra felt B3 og N7, sluttbehandling. https://www.trondheim.kommune. no/globalassets/10-bilder-og-filer/10-byutvikling/byplankontoret/1c vedtatt-plan/2018/grillstadfjara-felt-b3-og-n7-vedtatt-reguleringsplan-r20160011/1planbeksrivelse.pdf [retrieved 21.05.23]
Jha, A. (2010). The World Bank. Safer Homes, Stronger Communities: A Handbook for Reconstructing after Natural Disasters. Retrieved 25.05.2023. Koshy, M. An adaptive and contextual framework. Sourced from the lecture “Introduction to urban contingency practice and planning”. Retrieved 25.05.2023. Koshy, M (2022). Handling Compounded Uncertainty in Spatial Planning and Humanitarian Action in Unexpected Floods in Wayanad, Kerala: Towards a Contextualised Contingency Planning Approach. Retrieved 25.05.2023. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/ epdf/10.1080/14649357.2022.2143548?needAccess=true&role=button
Singh, 2014, International Journal of Interdisciplinary and Multidisciplinary Studies, “The Concept of Social Vulnerability: A Review from Disasters Perspectives”
United Nations ISDR. (2004). Living with Risk A global review of disaster reduction initiatives
Wisner et al. 2012, “Framing disaster: theories and stories seeking to understand hazards, vulnerability and risk”
World Road Association. (2022). Disaster management coordination. https://disaster-management.piarc.org/en/preparedness/preparedness-measures [retrieved 25.05.23]
The International Consortium of Organizational Resilience. (2023) Community Resilience Framework https://www.build-resilience.org/resilienceframeworks.php [retrieved 26.05.23]
Figure 1: Most likely relative sea level change (meter) over the period 1986-2005 to 2081-2100. Source: www.kartverket.no
Figure 2: Graph showing the scope of contingency planning approach is used for dealing with event having low degree of predictability and low means of management. Source: Authors
Figure 3: Hypothetical scenario. Source: NTNU UEP
Figure 4: A flexible and incremental approach to contingency planning is the principles on which this proposal is based. Source: Authors
Figure 5: Locating the site in Trondheim. Source: Authors
Figure 6: Site Area. Source: Authors
Figure 7: Community Resilience Framework. Source: The International Consortiuum of Organisational Resilience
Figure 8: Methodologies used in formulating the contingency plan. Source: Authors
Figure 9: Photo documentation during one of the site visits. Source: Authors
Figure 10: Visualization sketches for emergency response measures. Source: Grilstad Marina AS edited by authors
Figure 11: Site Sections to understand the topography of the Grilstad Marina. Source: Authors
Figure 12: Site Sections to understand the topography of the Grilstad Marina. Source: Authors
Figure 13: Identifying aspects that need intervention for flood protection. Source: Authors
Figure 14: NGU statistics of sinking areas in the Grilstad area. Source: NGU, 2023.
Figure 15: Power-Interest diagram to show all the different stakeholders with levels of power in decision making processes. Source: Authors
Figure 16: What the stakeholders said. Source: Authors
Figure 17: Stakeholder- Issue Interrelationship diagram. Source: Authors
Figure 18: Predictability- Probability Matrix. Source: Authors
Figure 19: Copenhagen’s Lynetteholm island plan. Source: Bloomberg, By and Havn, The Daily Scandinavian
Figure 20: Elevated walkways of Venice. Source: Wikicommons
Figure 21: Map of elevated walkway network in Venice. Source: Authors
Figure 22: Water Squares of Rotterdam in dry season. Source: OMA Architects
Figure 23: Water Squares of Rotterdam during monsoons. Source: OMA Architects
Figure 24: Spatial strategy ideation. Source: Authors
Figure 25: Spatial strategy ideation. Source: Authors
Figure 26: Spatial strategy ideation. Source: Authors
Figure 27: Hypothetical scenario. Source: Authors
Figure 28: Short term measures for evacuation during flooding. Source: Grilstad Marina AS edited by Authors
Figure 29: Community building and awareness mechanisms facilitated by expert groups. Source: Authors
Figure 31: Visualization of floating walkways that can be used for emergency rescue. Source: Authors
Figure 30: Plastic buoys used in sea for water sports. Source: Wikkicommons
Figure 32: Building a network of public and community use open spaces as valleys and ridges that can channel water into ‘water squares’. Source: Authors
Figure 33a: Section AA’ visualized as public space in the valleys. Source: Authors
Figure 33b: Section AA’ visualized during storm surge and with sea level rise. The ridges become ‘elevated walkways’ that remain functional during flooding and storm surge. Source: Authors
Figure 34: Building a network of public and community use open spaces as valleys, the ‘Water Squares’, and ridges, the ‘Elevated Walkways’. Source: Authors
Figure 35a: Section BB’ visualizes valleys as a play park for children. Source: Authors
Figure 35b: Section BB’ visualizes the play park becoming a ‘Water Square’ during flooding and storm surge. Source: Authors
Figure 36: Long term vision showing a network of flood protection on the perimeter of Grilstad Marina AS, floating island infrastructure along the coast. Source: Authors
Figure 37: (Top) Institutional Framework for flood management in Norway. Source: Global Environment Change, 2005
Figure 38: (Right) Operational Support Plan showing contribution of different stakeholders in the different stages of flooding. Source: Authors
Figure 39a: Rescue areas for risk zones. Source: Authors
Figure 39b: Preparedness measures. Source: Disaster Management Manual, www.piarc.com
Figure 40 : Timeline of implementation of different measures. Source: Authors
Figure 41: Cost-Benefit analysis of proposed measures in the contingency plan. Source: Authors
Figure 42: Continuum in contingency planning. Source: Choularton, 2007
Afif Muhammad Fatchurrahman
Lisbeth Elvira Levang Løvik
My An Dinh
Ronja Andersch
Stine Halvorsen Sørlie
In the given scenario, Trondheim is a densely populated city highly susceptible to floods caused by heavy rainfall. However, the municipality faces financial constraints and lacks disaster management authority. Inspired by the crisis scenario of a quick clay landslide in Trondheim described in the DSB report in 2019, we selected Bakklandet as our scenario due to its high risk of heavy rainfall leading to a landslide. This interplay of contingencies highlights the critical importance of risk management and contingency planning.
tTo tackle this challenge, we have chosen to adopt a frugal and local approach in developing our contingency plan. Drawing from relevant theories, we aim to proactively address risks and uncertainties associated with flood events. Our central focus will be on actively engaging local communities throughout the planning process. For this, we will rely on theories that emphasize the social dimension and community resilience. They will guide our approach in engaging with the communities effectively and their knowledge and experiences integrated into the contingency plan.
Figure 2: Street of Bakklandet (Selfmade)
Figure 1: DSB Report cover (Source: dsb, 2019)
Bakklandet is one of the oldest districts in Trondheim, located on the east bank of the Nidelva river, between the bridges “Elgeseter bru” and “Bakke bru”, with the old bridge “Gamle Bybro” in the centre (Rosvold, 2021). It has been an important district since the 17th century, especially for trade, commerce, and culture. During the Swedish siege, all the buildings of the district were burnt down and quickly rebuilt. Over time Bakklandet has played an important role in the city’s development. The architecture, culture, and lifestyle have been shaped by a rich and diverse history and provide a unique identity to the city. (Bakklandet, n.d)
In the 18th and 19th century new buildings were constructed, and the district became known for its markets, shops, and businesses. The old wharfs along Nidelva are perceived as part of the most important cultural heritage environments in Trondheim. During the 20th century, Bakklandet underwent significant changes. Many of the old wooden buildings were replaced, and new apartment blocks and commercial developments were built. A growing appreciation for the district’s historical and cultural significance were also present. Efforts were made to preserve and restore some of the remaining wooden and colorful buildings distinguished into very high and general antiquarian value. Important cultural heritage without protection in the law (Bakklandet, n.d; Trondheim Kommune, 2018; Trondheim Kommune, 2023).
Today, Bakklandet is a dense, vibrant, and lively part of the city, with a diversity of residents, a mix of residential, commercial, recreational and cultural spaces, and also good accessibility and connection to the transportation system. The district has kept much of its historic architecture and charm. Bakklandet represents a piece of Norwegian history and atmosphere, by exploring the district’s typical narrow streets, boutiques, cafes, and restaurants and the famous old bridge of Trondheim: Gamle Bybro. The district has a direct connection to the water and is made up of a unique blend of history, culture, and modernity appreciated by both locals and visitors.
Figure 3: Cultural heritage map (Source: Trondheim Kommune, 2023)
Figure 4: Topographic map of Bakklandet, selfmade (Source: FKB-data)v
Bakklandet also has a strong sense of community, with residents actively engaged in the district’s future. Several stakeholders are present in the area as seen in figure 5, but the most important is the community associations “Bakklandet og Møllenberg Nærmiljøstiftelse” and “Bakklandet and Lillegårdsbakken velforening”. The former were established after the sale of the Bakke district house, and uses the capital from the sale to enhance the well-being of the residents by supporting a range of socially beneficial purposes to create a better living environment and enhance the district’s appeal. The latter emerged as a response to the threat posed by the municipality’s plans to create a new highway through Bakklandet in the 70s. The association actively campaigned against this development, emphasizing the value of the district’s historic wooden buildings. The associations still play an important role in Bakklandet today, promoting community participation and protecting the district’s interests. (Møllenberg og Rosenborg velforening, 2022)
The methodology we follow through our contingency process is:
• Data collection, we utilized both primary (field surveys, observations and other measurements related to the topic) and secondary sources (literature review, report, map, statistics).
• We utilized mapping resources from NGU, NVE, GeoNorge, and the municipality to gather spatial data and local knowledge. These and experiences from locals were used to create maps.
• We conducted field-based transect walks in Bakklandet to observe and document the current state of the district. We record photographs, notes, and observations to gather qualitative data and supplement information obtained from mapping and secondary sources.
• We interacted with local stakeholders in Bakklandet. We conducted transect walks and utilized an online survey posted on social media platforms of active associations. QR codes were strategically placed in district locations for easy access to the survey.
Through extensive research and engagement, we gained a deep understanding of Bakklandet, including its history, current conditions, social and environmental context. This knowledge helped us identify local physical and social infrastructures that can be improved to develop frugal solutions.
Figure 6: Density map (Source: FKB-data & SSB).
Figure 7: Action for closing the drive-thru, May 1981 (Møllenberg og Rosenborg velforening, 2022).
Figure 8: Picture of interaction with locals (Selfmade)
Figure 9: Streets of Bakklandet (Selfmade)
To enhance our understanding of urban contingency planning, we conducted an extensive review of relevant literature which enabled us to explore strategies related to frugal and local planning.
Jason Corburn Bringing Local Knowledge into Environmental Decision Making Improving Urban Planning for Communities at Risk (2003)
Local knowledge plays a vital role in improving planning processes in various ways. Firstly, by incorporating local expertise, planning can benefit from a broader perspective and overcome the limitations of professionals’ narrow viewpoints and policies. Local epistemology, including factors like aggregation, heterogeneity, lifestyle, and tacit knowledge, brings unique insights that professionals may not have access to and corrects the biases that can arise from overlooking the particularities of local contexts.
Integrating local knowledge contributes to procedural democracy. It involves creating a hybridization of professional knowledge and the wisdom from local experiences. This collaboration allows a deeper understanding of the issues and so more relevant solutions.
Encouraging local knowledge enhances the effectiveness of planning efforts and enables more accurate analysis and problemsolving.
Lastly, incorporating local knowledge promotes distributive justice and ensures prioritizing of areas and communities that are most in need, thereby reducing risks and vulnerabilities and addressing social inequality and equity.
Local knowledge is deeply intertwined with the culture, traditions, and personal experiences of the community, when shared and accessible. It is allowing people not to repeat mistakes.
By incorporating the expertise of local individuals and communities, planning efforts become more inclusive, effective, and just, this fosters a collaborative approach and leads to more contextually appropriate and sustainable solutions.
David Sanderson Implementing area-based approaches (ABAs) in urban post-disaster contexts
Area-Based Approaches (ABAs) are a way to address the complexity of urban crises that traditional approaches struggle to tackle. Unlike existing approaches, ABAs have been employed by urban planners to improve disadvantaged areas in urban programs and community development projects. ABAs are geographically-focused, centering on communities within specific spatial contexts and emphasize people-centered approaches that actively engage with neighborhoods and foster positive outcomes.
These approaches require time and may conflict with the notion that humanitarian or emergency response should be rapid. Successful ABAs prioritize the pace of recovery actions, making space for meaningful local participation and ownership.
ABAs offer a promising avenue for addressing the multifaceted challenges of urban crises. By recognizing the importance of local context, engaging with communities, and advocating for equitable coverage, ABAs have the potential to enhance the effectiveness and inclusivity of urban response and recovery efforts.
Angelo Jonas Imperiale and Frank Vanclay, Conceptualizing community resilience and the social dimensions of risk to overcome barriers to disaster risk reduction and sustainable development (2021)
Understanding the social dimension of risks and disasters is crucial for effective contingency planning. Disasters have significant social impacts on community well-being, health, culture, livelihoods, infrastructure, and the environment. Certain groups within communities are more vulnerable than others, and addressing these vulnerabilities is essential for reducing disaster risks. Social risks are also interconnected with vulnerabilities and contribute to increased disaster risk at the local level. To effectively address the risks, contingency planning should include social pre-conditions and their impacts on community well-being.
Conceptualizing community resilience and resilience-building fosters inclusive contingency planning because it involves learning and transformation by adapting to past events.
Community resilience refers to the local people’s actions to collectively learn and transform, enhancing community well-being and addressing perceived problems. Resilience-building requires understanding and engaging with capacities of communities. External interventions should strengthen social responsibility, the sense of community, while governance strategies should enable social learning and transformation at multiple levels of society.
It is necessary to foster a glocal (global and local) culture of resilience that empowers local communities and promotes community engagement and social learning through transparent and liable governance strategies. A comprehensive understanding of risks and impacts, promotes community resilience-building, and contributes to sustainable development. Contingency planning can empower communities, foster resilience, and reduce the negative consequences of coming disasters.
Figure 11: The social pre-conditions of disaster. (Source: Imperiale & Vancay, 2021)
The annual precipitation in Sør-Trøndelag is estimated to increase by 20%, which will be observed in both intensity and frequency, throughout all seasons, but especially summer and fall. Figure 14 illustrates climate projections for precipitation in Trondheim for the next ten years using RPC 8.5. The darkest areas are expected to receive 189246 mm of precipitation over the next decade, while the lighter areas will receive 90058 mm. This may lead to problems with stormwater and flooding and increase erosion that may trigger quick clay landslides (Norsk Klimaservicesenter, 2022).
In our analysis we have only included the events relevant for our scenario which we base on extreme weather events that could lead to flooding and trigger quick clay landslides. (Trondheim Kommune, 2012)
River flooding in Nidelva
Figure 13: Climate projections from 2024 to 2034 (Source: Norsk Klimaservicesenter, 2022)The report is based on extraordinary events and dangerous episodes with unusually high water levels in Nidelva and events likely to occur because of this. Flooding results from heavy precipitation due to heavy rain, snow melting or spring and storm surge which changes the riverbed and has potential for big material damages in dense areas like Bakklandet (ibid.) The maps illustrate the danger zone, and 10, 20, 50 and 100 year floods in Nidelva.
Figure 15: Self made 10 - 20 - 50 and 100 years flood map (Source: FKB-data & NVE)
Flood paths show the runoff paths caused by high precipitation or snow melting. Stormwater damages due to heavy rain have occurred more often in recent years due to a combination of poor capacity, reduced drainage and clogged culverts, pipes, and stream runs. Risk associated with flood paths must be seen in association with topography and non-permeable surfaces. To enable safety and prevent damages it is important to maintain existing flood paths and establish new ones. (Trondheim
Flood paths in Bakklandet:
Figure 16: Map of flood paths in Bakklandet (Source: Multiconsult, 2020)
Figure 18: Self made hazard map (Source: FKB-data & NVE)
Figure 17: Potential safe areas for flood hazard (Source: Survey, FKB-data & NVE)
Kommune, 2012)
A landslide can be defined as a collapse of a mass from a slope in the terrain. Quick clay landslides are almost always caused by a sudden soil liquefaction due to a combination of heavy rain, flooding and human activities. A quick clay landslide can result in flooding of masses in large areas. It is therefore suggested in the RVA that new buildings should only be constructed in areas considered to have a high probability of security and the stability in areas with marine alluvium must be documented. A quick clay landslide disaster in dense areas has a high risk of death, material damages and loss of livelihood. Three quick clay zones are in Bakklandet. (Trondheim Kommune, 2012)
Figure 20 and 21: Illustrations of quick clay landslides in the northern and southern parts of Bakklandet (Source: Gylland & Helle 2019).
Figure 19: Safe areas for quick clay landslide hazard (Source: Survey, FKB-data & NVE)
Pictures of the QR code distribution (Selfmade)
The respondent distribution are illustrated in figure 22 and 23:
All the respondents described the feeling of living and spending time in the neighborhood in a positive manner as seen in figure 24.
Only one respondent wrote about a problematic aspect, an increase of speed in bicyclists traveling through Bakklandet.
Most of the respondents answered that there existed a sense of community in the neighborhood, and 12 respondents mentioned the welfare association as a provider for this sense of community. The sense of community was also a result of good neighborly relations, “dugnadsånd” (a collective voluntary effort or “team spirit” among the residents), and activities happening that gathered the community. Some were unsure whether a sense of connection and community existed, especially among the temporary residents like the student population, and two answered it is nonexistent.
Figure 22: Visualization of type of respondents from the survey (Selfmade)
Figure 23: Visualization of the duration of residency/utilization from the survey (Selfmade)
Figure 24: Visualization of the general feelings of respondents from the survey (Selfmade)
If a disaster would occur in Bakklandet the community would respond to it by the means of “Dugnad”, cooperation, providing aid, helping and participating in the rescue, sharing information and organizing a disaster task force. The expectations towards the community were not solely positive, some would save themselves, and one stated that he did not feel belonging to the community. A high share of the respondents stated they did not know how the residents in the community would act due to the big level of uncertainty, and lack of experience and knowledge.
The respondents that could imagine helping the area prepare for an eventual disaster answered they could participate in dugnad, keep shelters safe, provide others with information and do recommended measures on their own property. One respondent stated that she was too old to participate, and several mentioned this was the municipality’s responsibility.
To create a sense of belonging and make people more actively engaged in the neighborhood the respondents required better information, communication, a contingency plan and that something had to be done with the high amount of temporary accommodations in the area.
Figure 26: Visualization of risks and disasters awareness from the survey (Selfmade)
15 respondents had prior knowledge of historical disasters in Bakklandet and 30 were aware of risks of disasters in the area. Floods, sea-level rise, permanent higher water levels due to storm surges and wave impact that would put the old wharves at risk were mentioned. One respondent said the river was dammed and could be regulated, and others mentioned the reinforcements along the river. Construction work, and mass transport in the quick clay areas were another concern. One of the respondents became aware of this danger after applying for a building extension, and several mentioned that they hoped people were aware of the risk so that no one starts to build without permission.. The fortress, Port Arthur and the existing shelter were mentioned as possible evacuations on higher ground. One stated that it was difficult to take any measures, because of the proximity to the river, and another said the safest would be to stay at home because it was not located on quick clay.
If a disastrous event happened the respondents answered that the municipality should prepare a crisis team, evacuation center, provide aid to the community, send out a rescue team and organize a clean-up. Two respondents mentioned the municipality would send out a warning through a new catastrophe warning messaging system (sms). The respondents’ view of the response was mixed, some said it would be quick and effective, 11 stated they didn’t know, and a few answered that the response would be poor, insufficient and improvised.
Figure 27: Self made map of proposed evacuation areas (Source: Survey & FKB-data)In dealing with contingency events, several comprehensive theories have been put up by scholars, which we have chosen as our main reference based on the scenario for formulating our contingency plan.
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) theory covers mitigation, planning, and reconstruction efforts. DRR also envelopes various concepts and terminologies such as risk, vulnerability, and hazards that constitute DRR as a holistic concept. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, through their UNISDR Terminology and Disaster Risk Reduction publication (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2009), defines DRR as the systematic analysis and management of factors that cause disasters in order to mitigate their risks. This includes decreasing exposure to hazards, minimizing the vulnerability of people and property, managing land and the environment in a sustainable manner, and enhancing preparedness for unfavorable situations.
Flexibility and adaptability are also important aspects of contingency planning, which is best laid out in implementing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Kwakkel, Walker, Haasnot (2016) describe DAPP as the combination of short-term and long-term planning for planners and practitioners to commit to short-term actions, while still maintaining visions for future longterm actions. This planning is done parallel with the formulation of a framework that would guide practitioners to implement and move forwards with the formulated plans.
Figure 28: John Harding’s DRR framework, as illustrated by Wang Yu in his DRR lecture on 2023 spring semester. (Source: Yu, 2023)
In light of the localized approach, community participation will be crucial in determining the success of a contingency plan and based on the literature review in this report. To increase the chance of success, the capacity of a community needs to be built and strengthened, which involves their sense of community, commitment, ability to solve problems, and access to resources (Chaskin, 2001) All to increase their level of resilience in dealing with contingency events.
Building resilience in the local community by developing a sense of identity, introducing strategies for improving critical aspects and performing regular assessments concerning risk and vulnerability of the area are important. To be adequately prepared for upcoming events, certain resources are necessary regarding facilities, staff and funding. Severity and frequency of events will increase due to climate change and therefore it is obliged to react accordingly by providing either more available staff or emergency shelters and developing an early warning system as well as evacuation plans.
(Boswell
et al., 2019, p. 217)
A resilient community can be built Step by step, by identifying the responsible stakeholders, acquiring financial resources, monitoring the effectiveness and progress of the implementations and furthermore establishing feedback loops. (Boswell et al., 2019, p. 221, 222) Furthermore, long term solution could be the development of local strategies or a risk management plan to adapt to climate change. DIY-urbanism can also be transformed into long term solutions which are still based on informal constructions.
(Udelsmann, 2019)
In a financial system, capital is an important measure of power in the form of readily available assets. Thus, in the context of a community, in recent decades, scholars have developed the notion of social capital, which is roughly the power a person or community holds in their social setting. Social capital is quite difficult to define precisely, as various experts and scholars have defined it differently. However, what they do have a common understanding of is that Social capital consists of some aspect of social structures, and they facilitate certain actions of actors, whether persons or corporate actors, within the structure (Serageldin & Dasgupta, 2000). Hence, Social capital could be used to measure the power and quality of a community and could be considered to be improved in dealing with localized and frugal contingency planning.
Figure 30: Chaskin’s framework of Community Capacity Building (Source: Chaskin, 2001) Figure 31: Notes on Social Capital (Serageldin & Dasgupta, 2000; Coleman, 1988)Frugal contingency plan approach needs to have an innovative and grounded perspective, which could be provided by implementing NatureBased Solutions (NBS). According to the World Bank (2021), Nature-based solutions involve utilizing nature and natural processes to address the increasing urban resilience challenges by delivering infrastructure, services, and holistic solutions. These approaches extend beyond specific sectors and necessitate collaboration across different sectors. Implementing nature-based solutions can yield numerous advantages for cities, including mitigating disaster risks, enhancing climate resilience, restoring biodiversity, offering recreational opportunities, promoting human health, ensuring water and food security, and supporting community well-being and livelihoods. Implementing NBS in a contingency plan could provide alternatives for solutions that were previously thought of difficult to realize due to technology or resource limitations
This case study focuses on the case of community resilience in Calabria, Italy which regularly suffers from flash floods due to its topography, landslides are also a common event (Cools et al., 2011, p. 827, 828). Due to the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) community resilience is an important step for achieving risk reduction, as it helps prevent and mitigate impacts of hazards (Cools et al., 2011, p. 825).
To reach better awareness and preparedness, there are measures that can be taken such as short-term solutions like “[...] supply of sandbags, not storing valuables in the basement, knowing the emergency procedures [...]” (Cools et al., 2011, p. 826), as well as the suggestion to implement communication strategies and evacuation plans. Resilient communities can reduce harm and actual impacts, but this doesn’t prevent damage from occurring. Suggested investments include early warning systems and risk assessment (Cools et al., 2011, p. 826).
Existing flood risk management plans have reduced the risk, but couldn’t eliminate it (Cools et al., 2011, p. 829). The importance of early warning systems is emphasized in the case of Calabria, as well as the choice of communication tools which can be “several broadcast technologies (internet, mobile phone, telephone, newspaper, TV, radio, public broadcasts in the street) [...] training and education” (Cools et al., 2011, p. 830). The learning outcome is that resources and a legal framework should be provided to increase flood protection on a regional and national level. The local communities are experts on local knowledge and concerns. They are crucial for the preparation of solid flood risk management and handling major emergencies. Another important aspect is communication which must be adapted to the context and audience. (Cools et al., 2011, p. 830)
Udelsmann’s case study analyzes the effectiveness of DIY strategies in Luanda and Maputo to tackle climate change challenges. These cities are known for informal settlements and inadequate infrastructure, making DIY urbanism a viable option for residents to address climate change-related issues such as flooding, water scarcity, and lack of green spaces. By working together and using locally available resources, residents can create more resilient and sustainable communities.
In Angola and Mozambique one of the main obstacles is the lack of knowledge, data and detailed information regarding climate-related hazards in cities (Udelsmann, 2019, p. 321). DIY-urbanism refers to temporary, smaller and low-budget interventions made of reused materials. They are created in urban public spaces by small groups
of people or individuals challenging traditional urban planning and benefiting the public. The interventions raise awareness among higher stakeholders to implement permanent solutions. (Udelsmann, 2019, p. 325)
Nowadays, in the face of potential flooding, sandbags are usually available, construction materials are resistant to water, new houses are located on higher ground, especially the entrances to houses are above street level and it became rare to build houses of wood. Furthermore “building protections, drainage ditches and outlets, securing roofs with stronger fixes and heavy weights.” (Udelsmann, 2019, p. 326) got to be part of solutions to deal with flooding.
In communities the main focus is for instance digging ditches, maintaining and improving streets. In some neighborhoods the staff has been trained and equipped with shovels, hose and rubber boots in case of flooding (Udelsmann, 2019, p. 329).
Experience has shown that over time residents develop long-term solutions, especially in the form of informal constructions like it is the case with DIY-urbanism. A combination of improved documentation and communication with informal interventions is necessary to achieve change and improvement (Udelsmann, 2019, p. 329).
Quick clay is a geological phenomena primarily occurring in Norway and Sweden.
High levels of precipitation affect the salt levels which can liquefy and collapse due to overload. Hence the erosion capacity of rivers and streams is increased and can lead to landslides. The secondlargest landslide in Norway’s history occurred in Gjerdrum in 2020. Even though more than 1000 people were evacuated, the landslide took several houses away as well as the lives of 11 people. (Nikel, 2021)
The Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB) is already aware of the risk and keeps an eye on endangered and highly populated zones, such as Bakklandet. It is very unlikely that a landslide in Bakklandet would happen, but if it does, without preparedness, it would be very disastrous. Nationwide the probability of such a quick clay landslide in a city is considered to be at 35% in the next 100 years. NVE is also aware of the hazard and keeps track of changes in quick clay areas. Existing rules regulate the construction work in hazard areas and it is recommended to secure existing buildings and improve monitoring of erosion and terrain changes. (Nikel, 2021, 2022).
Our contingency plan is to introduce a DRR plan framework to the community, with considering the DAPP framework as its implementation strategy. Thus, as a DRR plan, our plan considers a collection of actions that span from preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation strategies. This is due to the fact that even though the area has a complete amount of information, and most of the people are aware of the risks and hazards surrounding the area, they do not have proper information and knowledge regarding disaster-related management and planning. Introducing a DRR plan to them will then be beneficial in the long run, especially if this plan is executed and committed by the community themselves.
The preparedness plan is done by identifying actions that can be taken prior to a crisis to improve the response. Emergency management consists of four phases before and after the event happening (see figure 34).
“Preparedness: Actions undertaken when mitigation efforts have not prevented or are unable to prevent a disaster from taking place.” (PennState, n.d.)
In our case many of the interventions mentioned in the implementation plan can be used to improve preparedness, fostering a resilient community development and providing protections against flooding. Especially the short term solutions help to be able to cope better with the impacts of an event. (see implementation plan)
In the preparedness plan, we divide our actions into three different categories; actions that handle Heavy rain and flooding, actions that focus on community capacity building and social capital, and actions that handle quick clay and landslide mitigations. The reason being, as our scenario and site analyses put, a dense city with heavy rainfall would increase the risk of quick clay landslides in the area, accelerating the degradation of quick clay integrity. Thus, it is crucial to address each risk systematically, while also promoting community capacity building due to our localized and frugal approach, relying
on the community’s social capital to do actions and gain resources rather than readily available authorities or financial capital.
The response and recovery strategy in this DRR plan mostly comes from the build-up of the preparedness plan as our main focus. Without it, the response and recovery strategy would be worth much less than if it has been prepared beforehand. Furthermore, future mitigation improvements should also be considered after the recovery plan to improve the existing preparedness plan, as will be described in the implementation plan.
Figure 33: Conceptual framework of our contingency plan (Selfmade) Figure 34: Four states of emergency management (PennState, n.d.)
Figure 36:
Figure 38:
Short-, mid-, and long term solutions from the perspective of the case studies, the survey, and our own findings are being displayed. The solutions are divided into enhancing the social capital as the main priority, while also coping with heavy rainfall and flooding as well as managing quick clay and landslides. As a base to work on we chose community resilience as an outstanding factor being a consequence of our scenario with very limited resources. The selected solutions are representing a sample of ideas. All the solutions were considered with taking into account the predicted increase of the annual precipitation for Trondheim, which raises the risk for erosion leading to a landslide. (see Climate projections for Sør-Trøndelag and Trondheim).
The possible pathways that could be taken are described in the dynamic pathways diagram above and are described with more details in the timeline. With the span of 30 years, the crucial first stage of the strategy takes place in the first 2 years, when annual rainfall has started to have a considerable effect on the area. Current existing policy and plans from the municipality could be implemented in parallel and complement the three prioritized strategies up to 1,5 years, where it would need to shift its focus on either one of the three priorities. If priority C is taken first, its effectiveness would only last for 2 years, since the condition of the quick clay soil will be affected by the heavy rainfall for that amount of years, thus, a shift to either priority A or B needs to be taken.
On the other hand, if priority A is taken first, then it will need to shift its focus to priority B for it to still be effective, since after 5 years of community capacity and social capital building efforts, the result would have been apparent and considerable to be implemented in other priorities. Furthermore, if the results of priority A are not translated into concrete actions, it could reduce the motivation of the community by not showing real implications, decreasing its morale and hard-earned social capital. In a scenario where disaster strikes after 2 years of the strategies implementations, neither priority B nor C would be relevant anymore, since most of their strategy focuses on the build-up of its preparation stage in parallel with priority A. Thus, it is argued that it will always be beneficial to consider priority A sufficiently, especially in the first stage.
During disastrous events, response and recovery strategies should be implemented by utilizing the strategies and resources that have been prepared in the preparedness plan. This is to ensure that the response and recovery strategy could be implemented without too many challenges. Furthermore, an advanced study of the area should be done, assessing the impact of the disaster for the benefit of future mitigation plans that will improve the already existing preparedness plan. These include improving the monitoring of rainfall and quick clay conditions.
After several years of implementation, at its final stage, it is also important to consider more intricate and resource-heavy solutions for future endeavors. When the stage is already set by the preparedness plan, and the community is already well-equipped due to its DRR capacity, social capital, and generated financial capital, it will be easier to consider more complex and permanent solutions as described in the diagram.
Figure 39: Dynamic pathway framework of the contingency plan (Selfmade)
It is important to consider a collaboration between internal and external stakeholders in the operational support plan, which should be strongly facilitated by the local community. The local community will act as the formal intermediary between the internal stakeholders, and organize collaboration with external stakeholders such as municipalities, authorities, NGOs, volunteer groups, etc. This is due to the fact that the community has limited resources, hence, when resources from the inner circle are exhausted while implementing the DRR plan, there will be potential support from external stakeholders.
As already addressed, the resources for this contingency plan are very limited, therefore, solutions that can be realized in a short time period also have to be on a low budget. Hence the structure of the implementation plan and timeline are already indicating the estimated expenses, except for some measures. Furthermore, the total amount of expenses could be indicated by which actions and priorities are to be taken first based on the dynamic pathways. Previously, we argued that prioritizing priority A first will be beneficial, this is because even though it is the most resource-intensive in the first stage, it will bring greater benefits in the later stages in the long run. Thus, securing its completion first would also greatly help the implementation of other priorities.
In the given scenario of Bakklandet as a dense part of the city, with financial constraints and a lack of disaster management authority, highly susceptible to flooding and potential quick clay landslides caused by heavy rainfall, we suggested a frugal and local approach. Based on these characteristic features and the related literature, solutions were identified and implemented into a contingency plan for the area of Bakklandet.
Most of the solutions aim for a realization without many resources and adapt to all the four stages of emergency management. Due to the limited options the focus is being laid on approaches that provide help and safety in a flooding event. The next main focus is the preparedness for an upcoming disaster and then the mitigation follows. For the recovery the community based approach already implies the importance of community resilience to cope with the impacts and recover from a disaster.
If the time frame of this group work would have been wider, we should have interviewed more experts as we originally had planned, but could not get answers or find appointments in the given time slot.
Other than that the investigation has proved that a community and area based perspective is essential for dealing with disasters on a local level and coping with potential harm. Building resilience in communities is one of the main aspects to improve contingency planning considering our scenario. Bakklandet is well-positioned as it already has a strong sense of community, as well as two active associations caring about matters in the neighborhood and engaging in keeping the area a vibrant, safe and attractive place in the city.
Figure 41: Operational support plan and potential cost-benefit budget plan diagrams (Selfmade)Heisann! We are a group of students from the Department of Architecture and Planning at NTNU and we are currently doing a small research about contingency and disaster planning using the Bakklandet area as our case study. / Heisann! Vi er en gruppe studenter fra Institutt for arkitektur og planlegging på NTNU og vi gjør for øyeblikket en liten studie om beredskap og katastrofeplanlegging, hvor vi bruker Bakklandet som vårt studieområde.
As some of you might already know, Bakklandet sits on top of quick clay land, where landslide risk is quite high. On top of that, when combined with increased precipitation and rainfall, considering torrential downpour and flooding, the resulting repercussion could be disastrous. / Som noen av dere kanskje allerede vet ligger Bakklandet på kvikkleire, der skredrisikoen er ganske høy. Kombinert med økt nedbør, styrtregn og oversvømmelse, kan resultatene bli katastrofale.
Thus, we would like to know about the area better, especially from the local’s perspective to have a more grounded and inclusive understanding of the area. So at the end we could formulate and create a frugal and localized contingency plan in case of events like above. / Derfor ønsker vi å lære mer om området, spesielt fra lokalbefolkningens perspektiv, for å få en mer forankret og inkluderende forståelse av området. På denne måten kan vi formulere og skape en enkel og lokal beredskapsplan i tilfelle hendelser som nevnt ovenfor.
The survey takes about 10-15 minutes to complete, and everyone is welcome to participate in this survey. Participation in this survey is fully anonymous and we will only use your answer in our research project report. Should you be interested in receiving our report at the end, feel free to leave your e-mail address. / Spørreundersøkelsen tar omtrent 10-15 minutter å fullføre, og alle er velkomne til å delta i undersøkelsen. Deltakelse i undersøkelsen er fullstendig anonym, og vi vil kun bruke svaret ditt i vår forskningsprosjektrapport. Dersom du er interessert i å motta rapporten vår til slutt, kan du gjerne legge igjen din e-postadresse.
Thank you in advance for your participation in this survey, your input is highly appreciated and hope you have a good day! / Takk på forhånd for din deltakelse i undersøkelsen, ditt bidrag blir høyt verdsatt. Ha en fin dag!
About you & Bakklandet
E-mail Address (Optional) / E-postadresse (valgfri)
Are you a: / Er du:
House/Building owner / Hus/Bygningg eier
Business owner / Bedriftseier
Renter / Lessee / Tenant / Leietaker
Employee / worker in the area / Ansatt / jobber i området
Tourist / visitor / Turist / besøkende
For how long have you lived (if you live there) or spent time (if you only visit regularly, but not live there) in Bakklandet? / Hvor lenge har du bodd på Bakklandet (hvis du bor der) eller hvor mye tid tilbringer du der (hvis du besøker Bakklandet jevnlig)?
How do you generally feel about living and/or spending time in the neighborhood? / Hva føler du om å bo eller tilbringe tid i nabolaget?
Are there any places that you often go in the neighborhood? Specify the place (name, landmarks, street, address, etc.) and the activity that you do there (does not have to be very specific, just to be able to be pinpointed on a map) / Er det noen steder du ofte går til i nabolaget? Spesifiser stedet (navn, landemerker, gater, adresser osv.) og aktiviteten du gjør der (svaret trenger ikke være veldig spesifikt, men må kunne plasseres på et kart)
Was there ever any natural or artificial disaster that happened in Bakklandet that you know of? / Har det noen gang vært en naturlig eller menneskeskapt katastrofe på Bakklandet, som du kjenner til?
If yes, please tell us all you know about it
Have you ever witnessed any floodings in Bakklandet? \Have you ever witnessed any landslides in Bakklandet? / Har du noen gang vært vitne til skred på Bakklandet?
Are you aware of the risks for natural of artificial disasters (quick clay incidents, landslides, floods, etc.) in the area? / Er du klar over risikoen for naturlige eller menneskeskapte katastrofer (kvikkleireskred, skred, flom osv.) i området?
If yes, please specify which one you knew of so far / Hvis svaret er ja, vennligst spesifiser hvilke du kjenner til
Do you think Bakklandet area is developed with considering those risks? / Tror du Bakklandet-området er utviklet med tanke på disse risikoene?
Yes (Ja)
No (Nei)
Do you know where to go and what to do in case of disasters such as flood or quick clay incidents in your area? / Vet du hvor du skal dra og hva du skal gjøre i tilfelle katastrofer som flom eller kvikkleirehendelser i ditt område?
If yes, can you specify what you think you will do and where will you go in the event? / Hvis ja, kan du spesifisere hva du tror du vil gjøre og hvor du vil gå under hendelsen?
Where are the most disaster vulnerable zones in your opinion? / Hvor er de mest sårbare sonene etter din mening?
Do you think Bakklandet area have good preparations to deal with natural and/or artificial disasters? / Tror du at Bakklandet-området er godt forberedt på å takle naturlige eller menneskeskapte katastrofer?
How do you think the municipality/kommune will act should there be a disastrous events in the area? / Hvordan tror du kommunen vil handle dersom det skulle skje en katastrofe i området?
How do you think the Bakklandet community will act should there be a disastrous events in the area? / Hvordan tror du lokalsamfunnet på Bakklandet vil handle dersom det skulle skje en katastrofal hendelse i området?
About the sense of community in Bakklandet
Are there already a connection or a sense of community in the neighborhood that you know of? Local initiative(s), organizations, activities? / Er det allerede en stedstilknytning, dugnadsånd eller fellesskapsfølelse i nabolaget? Lokale initiativ(er), organisasjoner, aktiviteter?
Do the residents in the neighborhood usually talk and collaborate in daily situations? / Pleier innbyggerne i nabolaget å snakke sammen og samarbeide i daglige situasjoner?
Do you feel like doing cooperative relief works when something disastrous happens in your neighborhood? / Har du lyst til å delta i samarbeidsprosjekter for å hjelpe til med å lette konsekvensene av en katastrofal hendelse i nabolaget ditt?
Could you imagine helping the area to prepare for eventual coming disasters (landslide, flood, etc.)? / Kunne du tenke deg å hjelpe området med å forberede seg på en eventuell kommende katastrofe (skred, flom osv.)?
For example: Participating in local workshops to build small infrastructure and to raise awareness, or investing in some local crowdfunding to finance measures? (In the interest of keeping the economy, social gathering places in the area safe in case of an incident like this). / For eksempel: Delta i lokal dugnad for å gjøre små fysiske tiltak og for øke bevisstheten rundt farene, eller gi bidrag til en lokal spleis for å finansiere tiltak? (For å sikre god økonomi og holde sosiale samlingssteder trygge dersom en krisehendelse skulle skje).
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Figure 1: DSB Report cover (Source: dsb, 2019)
Figure 2: Street of Bakklandet (Selfmade)
Figure 3: Cultural heritage map (Source: Trondheim Kommune, 2023)
Figure 4: Topographic map of Bakklandet, selfmade (Source: FKB-data)
Figure 5: Stakeholder interest (stake) and influence (power) matrix diagram, with potential lists of stakeholders. (Selfmade)
Figure 6: Density map (Source: FKB-data & SSB)
Figure 7: Action for closing the drive-thru, May 1981 (Møllenberg og Rosenborg velforening, 2022).
Figure 8: Picture of interaction with locals (Selfmade)
Figure 9: Streets of Bakklandet (Selfmade)
Figure 10: An urban ABA approach (Source: Sanderson D., 2017)
Figure 11: The social pre-conditions of disaster (Source: Imperiale & Vancay, 2021)
Figure 12: The multiple dimensions of risk (Source: Imperiale & Vancay, 2021)
Figure 13: Climate projections from 2024 to 2034 (Source: Norsk Klimaservicesenter, 2022)
Figure 14: Selfmade map showing danger zones of flooding (Source: FKB data & NVE)
Figure 15: Self made 10 - 20 - 50 and 100 years flood map (Source: FKB-data & NVE)
Figure 16: Map of flood paths in Bakklandet (Source: Multiconsult, 2020)
Figure 17: Potential safe areas for flood hazard (Source: Survey, FKB-data & NVE)
Figure 18: Self made hazard map (Source: FKB-data & NVE)
Figure 19: Safe areas for quick clay landslide hazard (Source: Survey, FKB-data & NVE)
Figure 20 and 21: Illustrations of quick clay landslides in the northern and southern parts of Bakklandet (Source: Gylland & Helle 2019).
Figure 22: Visualization of type of respondents from the survey (Selfmade)
Figure 23: Visualization of the duration of residency/utilization from the survey (Selfmade)
Figure 24: Visualization of the general feelings of respondents from the survey (Selfmade)
Figure 25: Visualization of the sense of community from the survey (Selfmade)
Figure 26: Visualization of risks and disasters awareness from the survey (Selfmade)
Figure 27: Self made map of proposed evacuation areas (Source: Survey & FKB-data)
Figure 28: John Harding’s DRR framework, as illustrated by Wang Yu in his DRR lecture on 2023 spring semester. (Source: Yu, 2023)
Figure 29: A conceptual framework of adaptation pathway map (Source: Walker, Haasnot, Kwakkel. 2013)
Figure 30: Chaskin’s framework of Community Capacity Building (Source: Chaskin, 2001)
Figure 31: Notes on Social Capital (Dasgupta & Serageldin, 2000; Coleman, 1988)
Figure 32: Schematic of urban farming and river floodplains NBS which could be used to mitigate flooding and landslides. (Source: World Bank, 2021)
Figure 33: Conceptual framework of our contingency plan (Selfmade)
Figure 34: Four states of emergency management (PennState, n.d.)
Figure 35: Stages and actions of the DRR plan (Selfmade)
Figure 36: List of community capacity & social capital building actions (Selfmade)
Figure 37: List of heavy rain & flooding management actions (Selfmade)
Figure 38: List of quick clay & landslide management actions (Selfmade)
Figure 39: Dynamic pathway framework of the contingency plan (Selfmade)
Figure 40: Implementation timeline of the contingency plan (Selfmade)
Figure 41: Operational support plan and potential cost-benefit budget plan diagrams (Selfmade)
The effects of climate change are unavoidable everywhere, and Norway is no exception. Norway’s number of fjords, inlets, and islands, as well as its 100,000 km of coastline and population of approximately 5,3 million people, make the country vulnerable to sea level rise and its associated effects, such as flooding. (Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB), 2017)
Sea level rise as a significant and unavoidable result of climate change appears to be one of the planet’s major challenges and threats (Mimura, 2013). Low-lying coasts, coastal areas, and deltas are most likely to be severely affected. (El-Raey et al., 1999) According to the “Climate Change and Land Special Report” (Shukla et.al., 2019), it is almost certain that the earth will experience a nearly 1-meter sea level rise in the next 80 years. In Norway, the main causes of sea level rise, particularly in coastal cities, are thought to be rising global temperatures and an increase in the amount of water entering the oceans due to ice melting. (DSB, 2017)
In this report, we have focused on three standpoints: ecological, societal and institutional. Also, we have chosen a flexible and incremental approach for the contingency plan.
From an ecological standpoint, coastal areas are threatened and are more likely to experience severe effects of sea level rise, including erosion acceleration, and the loss of coastal ecosystems, which is one of the major concerns and poses a significant risk to human beings’ future. (Magnan et al., 2022)
From a societal standpoint, the society and inhabitants must be prepared for floods by doing resilience and community work. This can prevent the risk of floods, also, building stronger communities.
From an institutional standpoint, sea level rise could impose significant costs on the government, and if it is not controlled or prevented, the costs will rise. As a result, investing in flood prevention may be less expensive than dealing with the extreme magnitude of its destructive effects. For preventing floods, the institutions, organizations and government must cooperate and work together (Bosello et al., 2012).
Our given hypothetical scenario is: Trondheim is a ...
Very low density city
We have fewer people and more space toimplement our ideas in the event of a disaster.
We have enough human, financial, and knowledge resources to respond to hazards without being constrained by resource constraints. In addition, it makes recovery easier.
As the Trondheim municipality has the disaster management team, we have a strong institutional/governmental power and support to implement the appropriate contingency planning.
The research question in this report is “From an ecological, societal and institutional standpoint, how can Nyhavna become more resilient in case of flooding due to the sea level rise?”. This research is based on secondary data and is a qualitative analysis.
Literature review of relevant articles, plans and documents for examples by Trondheim municipality and previous groups. We have also done observations by walking within the site, taking photos, stakeholder analysis, and SWOT analysis.
In this section, we review two relevant literature topics on “Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)” and “Community Resiliency,” in relation to the case study and the main question of the report.
Disaster: Generally, disasters are considered extreme events requiring external assistance due to their scale or impact. It is common to refer to these recurrent events as ‘extensive risks’. There is often a high level of risk faced by poor people living in the affected zone. (Twigg, 2015).
Risk: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) (2021) mentions three components of risk: hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities. And it mentions that ecosystems can influence these three components. Ecosystems are capable of regulating and mitigating hazards, controlling exposure, and reducing vulnerability, as evidenced by research. (UNDRR, 2021)
Sea level rise can result in river overflow and flood dangers because of rising sea levels.
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR): UNDRR (2021) describes DRR as a way of reducing disaster risks by analyzing and managing the causal factors of disasters. This includes reducing exposure to hazards, reducing vulnerability to disasters, managing land and the environment wisely, and being better prepared to deal with adverse events. Also, Begum (2014) believes that as part of a broad context
of sustainable development, DRR describes the development and application of policies, strategies and practices that minimize vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout a society. This is done by avoiding (preventing) or limiting (mitigating and adapting to) the adverse impacts of hazards.
Resilience: Imperiale et.al. (2021) says resilience has a long history and a variety of definitions. Even though technoscientific and mechanistic approaches to resilience in physical systems emphasize that resilience refers to the ability of a system to maintain and return to its original state, socio-ecological system theory holds that nature, especially social systems, learns and transforms in response to disturbances. (Imperiale et.al., 2021)
Imperiale et.al. (2021) also mentions that social actors can use disturbances as windows of opportunity to learn and transform for future actions. This will improve their capacity to manage the socioeconomic system and be more resilient in the future. He expresses concerns, however, about how resilience is unclear at all levels of social-ecological governance in society. (Imperiale et.al., 2021)
Community Resiliency: According to Imperiale et.al. (2021), community resilience is the social process that occurs within places and that local people engage in together to enhance community wellbeing and address the negative risks and impacts they perceive and experience as common problems through collective learning and transformation.
Nyhavna is a town district in Trondheim between Solsiden and Lade, located by the waterfront of Nidelva. Nyhavna is close to the city center area, Midtbyen, which makes this area an attractive location both for living and working. (Fig.1)
Nyhavna is an important harbor and industrial area in the city of Trondheim. It has been gradually developed, from an estuary area formed by the Trondheim fjord and Nidelva river, with the majority of the development taking place around the early 1900’s when the area became an important harbor and port area (Fig.2). The present shape of the harbor was realized by the Germans during World War II when they built large submarine bunkers and transformed the area to serve a military function. Dora l and ll creates a natural cultural axis in the center of Nyhavna, which has a strong connection to the Second World War.
Today, Nyhavna consists of commercial buildings and storage facilities. The area gives off an industrial vibe and contains a few culturally and historically significant buildings and memorials mostly from the World War II era. Few cultural and leisure activities have been added such as the E.C.Dahl brewery and Havet Arena. There is a wide variety of services and amenities within walking distance of Nyhavna such as the Solsiden shopping center with many shops and restaurants as well as Pirbadet, Rockheim museum, Brattøra harbor and surrounding hotels.
There are several smaller neighborhood parks around Nyhavna. They are pretty scattered and underused. The closest green area is Strandveien park and the scenic pathway along the shore to Korsvika beach. The site itself has no green spaces and the connection between green spaces is missing, even though Nyhavna is located next to Nidelva which has a potential as a recreational area. (Fig.3)
The area has a few problematic spots that create traffic congestion and could be dangerous to both pedestrians and drivers. There are a few bus stops and a train stop nearby with a few pedestrian pathways, but the area is heavily dominated by roads meant for vehicles and bigger delivery trucks. The photos in figure 4, 5, and 6 illustrated the dominance of industry and roads, and not pedestrianfriendly environment.
Trondheim kommune’s plan for Nyhavna is planning to transform the area into an attractive and lively resident district. “The quality program for Nyhavna” suggest the waterfront should be used for experiences and commercials, solutions for dealing with weather and climate, and green qualities for recreation and biodiversity (Trondheim kommune & Trondheim Havn, 2020). The four main aims presented for Nyhavna are:
Nyhavna is a blue-green city district.
Nyhavna is a flexible and robust city district.
Nyhavna is an available and accessible city district.
Nyhavna is a city district with an identity and history.
In April 2016, the city council of Trondheim decided on a municipal partial plan for Nyhavna. This plan illustrates the future development of Nyhavna, where there is a mix between city development and harbor functions (Trondheim kommune, 2021). In the municipal partial plan, there are planned for more city center functions, but there are not many recreational areas. We think Nyhavna should focus on developing a green recreational area, as green public spaces, using the natural environment to prevent flooding. Therefore, we will look into two of the future plans for illustrating different aspects of recreational use. Also, how the future plans will develop Nyhavna as a new lively and active city center for people living, working and using the area.
In 2022, Gillardi & Hellsten designed a proposal for a competition at Nyhavna, suggesting to transform Nyhavna into an urban estuary. Their inspiration was the estuary of the river Gaula, also ending in Trondheimsfjorden, see figure 8. (Please also see their illustration plan in figure 7).
Their proposal has been an inspiration for us, because they have used the existing physical environment to make a nature reserve at Nyhavna. Their suggested transformation of Nyhavna can help prevent flooding by using the natural environment. (Grindaker & Gillhardi+Hellsten, 2022).
MAD Architects & Holt O’Brien, in a competition in 2019, focusing on the public spaces on Nyhavna, they design a lively and active image of Nyhavna, see figure 9. Also, the pathways for pedestrians are raised which make it more resilient in case of flood (fig. 10). In this proposal, the public spaces are available for people both for recreational and active uses. (Bogl, MAD Architects & Holt O’Brien, 2019).
In this report, we would like to combine MAD Architects & Holt O’Brien and Gillardi & Hellsten to think of Nyhavna as an urban estuary and make it as a public space for recreational and active uses for people. Also, we want to involve people in their community to help protect the natural environment at Nyhavna and do resilience work.
The area sits on a man made reclaimed land that is surrounded by the Nidelva river and the Trondheim fjord. Because the area was artificially created from dredging, it lies relatively flat and low above the sea level and it therefore often floods. In addition, the paved over peninsula lacks permeable surfaces to absorb excess rainwater and the stormwater runoff with all of the pollutants from the industrial sites contaminates the marine environment around the site. Most of the flooding occurs as a result of seasonal snowmelt in the spring when the river experiences excess flow and during heavy rainfalls. Although not relevant specifically to our case area of Nyhavna, the city of Trondheim has quick clay landslide prone areas and this should be kept in mind when developing the site further as it might pose risk to surrounding areas and water levels in Nidelva. In addition, sea level rise is a concern for long-term planning as it might lead to further shoreline erosion and infrastructure failure.
The low-risk scenario refers to the flooding that would take place in 2050 as a result of sea level rise. The projected sea level rise for this year is only 5 cm which will have a minimal impact on the area (NASA, n.d.)(Fig.11) . According to this scenario, only a few centimeters of the shoreline will be impacted by flooding especially around the edges of Transitkaia and Kullkranpiren peninsulas. These are heavy industry areas containing a cement factory and a scrap yard, which might lead to a pollution runoff and impact the water quality in and around the site.
their structural integrity might be compromised. The current use of Dora II as a ocean testing center will no longer be feasible and the coastline along the shore will be further pushed back.Leaching from the flooded buildings might lead to contamination of the natural resources around the site. The roads and critical infrastructure along the shore will be no longer accessible.
The medium-risk scenario refers to predicted sea level rise flooding in the year 2100, which is expected to increase by 0.24 m (NASA, n.d.)(Fig.12). This will completely submerge and flood almost half of Transitkaia and render the use of buildings and infrastructure on the peninsula unusable. Parts of Dora I and II will also be flooded and
High-risk scenario is a seal-level rise prediction for year 2150 when the flooding will reach the highest level. It is also the longest future sea-level rise prediction currently available.The sea level will rise by 0.43 m by the middle of next century (NASA, n.d.)(Fig.13). At this point, the sea level rise and storm surge predictions combined will submerge all of Nyhavna. Roads, buildings and all of the essential infrastructure will be compromised and the area will be rendered unusable unless the ground is elevated and proper mitigation measures are taken into account beforehand.
Identifying and understanding the stakeholders involved in a project is crucial for gaining a comprehensive understanding of the area and clarifying the roles and responsibilities of each stakeholder. To achieve this, we have divided the stakeholders into four groups: public stakeholders, governmental stakeholders, local people, and private stakeholders. We have focused on stakeholders within Nyhavna, but also other stakeholders that are close to the site or are responsible for the site. (Fig. 14)
The public stakeholders consist of public agencies and institutions. These agencies, such as transportation and environmental protection departments, hospitals, and heritage places play a role in ensuring the adoption of regulations and providing necessary permits. Also, they focus on conservation and community development that bring valuable expertise and resources, while at the same time can contribute through research and knowledge sharing.
Governmental stakeholders include local government officials, regional institutes, and national government agencies. They can be helpful in terms of the provision of budgets, preparedness plans and prevention strategies. And fragmentation of all the organization and stakeholders.
Local people, including residents and community members like the users of the area in various ways, are crucial stakeholders who have valuable knowledge and experience about the area. Their engagement ensures that the project aligns with the needs and interests of the local community, and it allows for a more inclusive and democratic decision-making process. Also helps in the lowest level of hazards and fatalities during floods.
Private stakeholders refer to the individuals, businesses, and organizations existing in the area. This could include private companies operating in the area, local businesses, and landowners. Understanding their perspectives, concerns, and potential economic opportunities is essential for building partnerships and addressing their interests and consequently ending up with a better relationship with them and having their support and engagement in the flood situation.
In this part we also specifically mentioned potential responsibilities of the different stakeholders during the flood.
The Power-Interest Matrix is a tool used in stakeholder analysis to understand the level of power and interest of each stakeholder involved in the area. (Fig. 16) It helps to categorize stakeholders based on their potential influence and importance, enabling them to prioritize their engagement and communication strategies.
In our case the governmental stakeholders like the National government , NVE and regional municipalities, and the municipality of Trondheim have the most influence and power for planning and preparing for the potential crisis in the future.
Also the high level of interest of the governmental and public organizations is noticeable. The high interest of these stakeholders would help with the sustainable implementation, additionally increasing the expectation for the full support and perfect performance of them.
Figuring out the relationships among stakeholders could bring a very clear insight into the planning for the future. Also it could be very crucial since the relation among various stakeholders can directly affect the success and sustainability of this project. (Fig. 15)
Strong relationships among stakeholders would result in strong collaboration and cooperation for the crisis and critical situations.
In this part we specified the direct and indirect connection and relationships among the stakeholders. As it can be seen the main governmental organizations like national government and regional governmental organizations have the major effect.
SWOT analysis is a crucial planning step that helps enhance understanding and solidify key information about a subject in a brief form. It serves as a summary of important aspects, enabling a comprehensive view of the subject in a simplified manner.
By enhancing the awareness of the people and organizations through Swot , the value of the subject will rise for everyone and consequently, the process of goal setting would be more effective.
This could also end up with more efficient communication and better decision-making under uncertainty.
In this section, we will present 3 exemplary case studies from around the world to inspire our future vision and contingency plan for Nyhavna.
The Netherlands is a fairly small but densely populated country in Northwestern Europe. It is a low-lying coastal country touching the North Sea and much of the land has been reclaimed from the sea by dredging the seafloor and artificially creating land, also called polders, for people to live on. As a result, the Netherlands has been dealing with floods that compromise its infrastructure and quality of life for residents. More than half the country is susceptible to flooding from the sea and connected waterways. The country has had a Delta Committee since the 1950’s when the Netherlands experienced a massive flood and thousands of people died. Moreover, the country faces many flood risks and freshwater management challenges and as a result the government came up with a water policy document called the National Water Plan for the years 2016-2021. In it, they outline how they are going to keep the coastline of the country safe from flooding and protect the coast for future generations while creating recreational opportunities for the shoreline (Koshy, M, 2023; Nillesen, 2023).
For example, the country has implemented measures to shorten the coastline so it’s more easily manageable, they also installed dikes, built seawalls and implemented dune enhancement to improve safety standards for the coastal communities. To increase the ecological resilience while improving the quality of life, the Dutch also started to implement transitional natural buffers that have more scenic and spatial qualities as opposed to the old hard infrastructure projects. For example, instead of building defensive seawalls, the Netherlands adopted a softer approach to coastal preservation and protection. These green infrastructure projects include intermediate or natural edges with transitional, gradual and sloppy access to the water which increases public access and provides leisure activities. It also increases the scenic aspect of the waterfront and creates a natural buffer between the water and the residences that are located further away. (Fig.18)
This could be in the form of a natural or artificial dune formation, living shorelines, wetlands preservation or estuary protection. (Fig.19) This approach provides a greater level of protection against big waves, it leads to sediment accretion which further smooths out the wake and it provides habitat for marine life and vegetation and other animal species such as birds and insects, and it allows people to interact with the waterfront rather than being walled off from it.
Copenhagen is the capital of Denmark, a small coastal country in Scandinavia. Rainy, gray weather is pretty common throughout all of the season. In 2011, the city experienced a cloudburst, i.e. an excessive amount of rainfall in less than 24 hours, which led to massive floods in the city causing damage and structural failure to the city’s infrastructure. As a result, the city adopted a Cloudburst Management Plan. The document serves to investigate further areas of risk, collects data, includes modeling and mapping techniques to identify the risks, it provides a cost vs. benefit analysis, it focuses on design and quality of the blue-green structures and provides a summary of economic benefits (Oppla, n.d.).
The goal of the plan is to reduce peak flood, increase infiltration and storage capacity, reduce runoff, increase biodiversity and provide people with higher quality green spaces that serve multiple functions. One such example can be seen below (Fig.20), where the Sønderboulevard street is used as a green public space for leisure activities during the dry season, and during extreme rain events it acts as a water reservoir. The permeable surface of the park area allows the water to percolate downward instead of causing a street runoff and flooding the streets. A similar example on a much smaller scale can be seen in Figure 21, where the space between parking lots are used as a catchment area for excess rainfall and provide habitat for plants which beautify the area.
Based on a scientific agreement reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the average global sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year from 1961 to 2003, which is proceeding more every year (IPCC). In Virginia state in the U.S.A, flooding was not a concern in the past, it is now expanding the flood possibilities due to sea level rise, global warming, and climate change. Based on the long-term water level measurements from 1961 to 2003 local sea level rise in Virginia averages around 3.6 to 7 mm per year. (1.8 to 2.30 feet per century).(Boon et al., 2009)
This state seems to be so vulnerable to flooding in the future due to hurricanes and northeasters. Uncontrollable sea level rise in the long term will inundate all the infrastructures such as transportation, military installations, and agriculture and damage the marine ecosystem, human health, and recreation. So they started a monthly and yearly measurement of the sea level rise that could provide enormous amounts of information for the government and other related organizations to be prepared and cautious about the phenomenon and consider the variety of criteria to prevent flooding and the following damages. (Boon et al., 2009)
The Virginia Institution of Marine Science has used sophisticated dynamic computer models to create models and figures for simulating floods in the different locations of the land, as illustrated in figure 22 and 23. As a result of technological development, new methods like airborne Light Detection and Ranging have been used to delineate coastal topography, and also the new technology in forecasting weather like National Weather Service was so effective. Combining the measured data and modeled information helped to be more confident to even go further and try to have a more trustworthy and accurate future model prediction.
The methods used in Virginia such as measuring and tracking the sea level rise and using new technology and supercomputers for complex analysis helped this state to be more prepared for the future hazards like flooding. (Boon et al., 2009)
The following response strategy is an action plan developed based on the risks and hazards present in Nyhavna and explained further above in the Scenario section. The goal of the Response Strategy is to avert or mitigate the negative consequences of potential future flooding due to sea level rise and plan for appropriate response in case of its occurrence. We have identified three standpoints for our scenario, i.e. societal, ecological and institutional response, based on short term immediate response vs. long term prevention planning. In this section we will present and discuss the aims and measures of the response strategy.
This type of strategy response is crucial in mobilizing the local residents and community members to prepare for and respond in times of crises. Human resources and community involvement will have to be built up from scratch as there are currently no residents living in the area. Having community involvement from an early stage of the development to raise awareness of possible risks and establishing different activist groups to organize community events will help with building up social cohesion and community feel for the area. As more people live and care for the area, the pressure to make the place more resilient and safe in the long-term as well as during crisis events will need to be addressed. We plan to encourage community involvement by establishing “Nyhavna Velforening”, a group responsible for social work and cohesion. They will assist in organizing community events or “dugnad” in Norwegian which are communal work events where people get together to work on projects, do some manual labor such as neighborhood clean up, tree planting or landscaping, fundraising efforts or accomplish some mutual task that will make the area more resilient. We also propose establishing a resiliency committee, which will be a volunteer group made up of people from different walks of life, different ages, genders and areas of expertise, who will create a resiliency toolbox that will be distributed to everyone living in the area. In it, residents will be educated and informed on the safety precautions, first response strategies such as evacuation plan, resource storage, first aid services and best practices during crisis situations. We propose having a volunteer sign up form as well so that people can get properly trained on how to respond to the crisis and help other residents take appropriate measures.
The ecological response will consist of incremental steps to increase resiliency and protection of the area against flooding. The goal is to improve flood protection while enhancing the spatial and scenic quality of the area. Taking small, incremental steps to im-
prove the ecological resilience of the area will be accomplished by increasing the biodiversity in the area and building out more green structures. This can be done by creating a stormwater strategy for Nyhavna, that will act as the main guiding document for the long term planning. Green structures will allow the water to percolate through the ground and blue structures will act as water catchment areas. We also propose to make Nyhavna a test project for alternative ecological approaches to stormwater management such as living shorelines, floodable plain or estuary rejuvenation which could be tested for and adjusted in incremental steps. Overall, reverting the area into a more natural state and increasing the biodiversity will also naturally increase the resiliency of the area. Using Nyhavna as a pilot site for a blue-green structure testing site could bring many more economic benefits such as increased employment and property values, improved recreational opportunities and community cohesion, lower pollution and reduced cost from damages.
The Institutional Response covers the topics of governance and economy. The aim in this case is to establish cooperative alliance between different local stakeholders and actors who will assist in administering the response strategy and develop a long term plan for the area to minimize risks and prevent losses.
The group, consisting of Trondheim kommune, Trøndelag brann og redningstjeneste IKS and Nyhavna Velforening, will help identify other local stakeholders and create an emergency plan. The emergency plan will be made available to the local businesses, organizations, offices and explain step by step the level of priority in a crisis situation. It will also identify the building zones and examine structural integrity of buildings that are vulnerable to sea level rise using various mapping methods (remote sensing, GIS mapping) with the help of research and academic institutions such as NTNU. Measuring of sea level and identification of buildings at risk will allow for future development plans to take building relocation into consideration.
Further analysis of local actors and stakeholders involved, and discussion of when should these actors be involved, how and why did we select these stakeholders can be found in the Stakeholder Analysis part of this paper. The overall goal is to facilitate knowledge sharing and create a structural hierarchy of governance so that roles and responsibilities are clearly defined. The emergency plan will provide systems navigation for stakeholders so they can increase their collaboration and engagement through various training, courses and mock tests.
Essentially, an implementation plan defines the steps necessary to achieve a shared objective or initiative. Similarly, a strategic plan specifies the strategies we will employ to achieve a particular objective. Also, it identifies the steps that we should take to achieve that objective (Atmaja et al 2022). In the Implementation Plan, we have categorized short, medium, and long term steps by looking at the societal, ecological, and institutional standpoints. In the following chart, we’ve portrayed all the points that we think we should consider in our implementation plan. (Fig. 24)
Societal:
As we discussed in the theory section, resilient communities are better equipped to respond to disasters. From this angle, it is crucial to educate Nyhavna’s future population about the threat posed by the sea level rise. In this sense, creating more awareness in the residents is the key. So, using different online platforms, and arranging community awareness sessions could be very helpful. In addition, we need a plan for emptying the residents during the flood. This plan should be created in the short term alongside the development plan.
It could be very beneficial for the future of Nyhavna if there is a collaboration between the research sector and city development authority about the possible natural solutions that can prevent flooding in the area, like the nature based solutions. As the region has a historical natural heritage as an important estuary, it’s important that further research shows what are the possibilities to revitalize and consider this natural background in the future development.
Institutional:
Since Nyhavna hasn’t developed yet for residentship,the adaptation of the buildings to survive floods in the future is also crucial. Since we have enough resources, the municipality and other responsible stakeholders in Nyhavna would not have a problem implementing the ideas in this project. For example, the locals should have a backup energy source in case of a power outage so they can continue using their devices to stay updated in times of flood.
The medium term measurements are the ones that should be planned after the basic infrastructure and residents establishment.
Societal and institutional:
As a medium term implementation plan, we suggest a scientists’ group which is supported by the municipality to enhance the collaboration process between different stakeholders. It’s a medium term plan because firstly we need the development to take place. Then, in the medium term, we can think of a group that goes through research, organizing stakeholder meetings, and community development. We call this group the “Nyhavna urban living lab”, which includes urban designers, engineers, and architects who collaborate closely with locals and other interested parties. The Trondheim Municipality’s DMA oversees these group. They use their knowledge to understand the causes of threats and better prepare for them. They are primarily responsible for climate action and risk reduction, community training, emergency response, and coordination of the overall process.
We have proposed structures in the area as part of our flood resistance proposal in the medium term. These structures could provide people with enough space to be in contact with water, at the same time, it lets the ecosystem work in the coast lines. Also, we have explored incorporating certain porous materials in the area through which allow flood water resides. These ideas are largely related to the concept of sponge city, which tends to create a more porous city.
Our long term plans consider community development plans to improve the sense of community, create a collaborative knowledge sharing environment, and implementing long-term incremental natural initiatives.
Societal:
The strong bond between the people and their designed environment is something that we believe occurs in the long term period. When residents feel connected to and invested in their community,
a supportive environment is created in which individuals actively participate in local initiatives and collaborate to achieve common objectives. This sense of belonging promotes social cohesion, which increases neighborly trust, communication, and cooperation.
Ecological:
Designing a Blue-green infrastructure helps the coastal neighborhood of Nyhavna flourish long-term, incrementally. A sustainable combination of blue-green infrastructure is necessary for future development in the area. Right now, Nyhavna is impermeable as there are hard surfaces with mostly asphalt. Blue-green infrastructure improves aesthetics and ecosystem services by incorporating natural components, and it provides recreational spaces. As a result, considering the interaction between Nyhavna community design and its infrastructures ensures sustainable and adaptable development, producing livable and harmonious landscapes for present and future generations.
By working together and coming up with solutions together, city planners and residents may adopt a more comprehensive approach to meeting the community’s requirements to better face the future flood risk in Nyhavna. Here, we see collaboration as a long term sustainable and inclusive urban development practice by creating a shared feeling of ownership and collective responsibility among government agencies, people, businesses, and other stakeholders.
The illustrations in figure 25 are made by Gillardi & Hellsten for their proposal for Nyhavna. They illustrate the connection between land and water, where the environment is built in different levels and has natural surfaces to absorb the water.
The operational support plan is a detailed strategy that outlines the different parties and stakeholders involved in our area, both directly and indirectly. It specifies their responsibilities and emphasizes the importance of collaboration in distributing information and providing assistance, such as financial and humanitarian aid, during critical situations. The plan also identifies the available resources that can be utilized effectively to overcome the crisis. (Fig. 27)
Given the substantial resources in our scenario and the presence of a disaster risk management authority within the municipality, this organization takes charge of mapping the stakeholders, assigning their roles and responsibilities, and making the best use of available resources. They are also responsible for establishing community response associations and implementing various engagement initiatives like workshops and urban labs. Additionally, they foster relationships among different stakeholders to ensure effective collaboration. To incorporate preventive measures, the disaster risk management authority works closely with other municipal entities such as the water management authority and urban planners. Since The well-being of the entire community is so important in this scenario, the municipality takes the responsibility of providing the community with the necessary education and preparedness to face the impending crisis.
This operational support plan is based on thorough analyses of stakeholders and an assessment of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT analysis).
These analyses help us understand the roles and capabilities of each stakeholder involved. Maintaining close contact and effective communication with stakeholders at every level is crucial in our operational support plan. By establishing strong connections and regular interaction, we ensure that everyone involved is well-informed and able to contribute effectively to the overall response efforts.
The Preparedness Plan is categorized into ecological, societal, and institutional standpoints, listing the aims within each of the three standpoints. Within the aims, there are mentioned some measures that can be used to prepare for floods in the future, also, who is responsible for the measures and then they should be prepared. The Preparedness Plan is based on the scenario presented in the introduction of the report. (Fig.28)
The measures represented in the Preparedness Plan have some benefits and limitations. This will be described in the figure 29.
Financial resources will be needed to implement the aforementioned societal, ecological, and institutional initiatives. The scenario indicates that Trondheim has ample resources, so all of the actions can be implemented at once. Financing is not a problem for us in this project, but it is still a wise idea to know how your money is being used.
As a result, we divided our measures into three different categories of low, medium, or high cost to create an overview of the proportion that each of the measures will cost for us. This is displayed in the table below. Payments will be distributed primarily by the municipality. Itæs important to note that Nyhavna has not yet developed, so this money should be paid incrementally as the development project progresses. The budget is illustrated in figure 30.
In this report, we have discussed the research question: “From an ecological, societal and institutional standpoint, how can Nyhavna become more resilient in case of flooding due to the sea level rise?”. We understand that climate change has the potential to exacerbate the issue. However, given our scenario, which included ample human and financial resources, we were able to think freely about the subject. Nyhavna is currently a low-density development with primarily business activity and limited residential growth. However, the site is intended for future mixed-use development. As a result, we investigated the effects of sea-level rise on low-density development now and how this would change the direction of future development.
According to our assumptions, the Nyhavna district already has a disaster management authority. In Trondheim, the disaster management authority is in charge of this team, which should comprise people with diverse backgrounds such as urban planners, economists, engineers, and architects. They will study several flood scenarios and summarize the community’s risk assessment. They work closely with the community and other stakeholders.
So, our main discussion is that we need to have a multidisciplinary approach toward the future development in Nyhavna. As a result, we developed our research from three standpoints of societal, ecological, and institutional to highlight the fact that we should consider multiple factors, different expertises, and our site capacities and stakeholders at the same time.
In this regard, Figure 31 illustrates the high-value assets of Nyhavna future development in general which are the major considerations in planning and policy-making processes. It highlights the
critical resources, infrastructure, and natural features that contribute to the development, resilience, and safety of the area in the future. By identifying and assessing these high-level assets, decision-making could be more effective, also the process of prioritizing the resource allocation would end up with more logic.
In the next 5 years, as Nyhavna will experience substantive changes, we believe that we should raise awareness about sea level rise among residents while developing a preparedness plan for possible hazards. Collaboration between the research sector and city development authority is suggested to explore natural solutions and integrate the region’s natural heritage. In addition, adaptation of buildings, backup energy sources, and medium-term plans for a scientists’ group called the “Nyhavna Urban Living Lab” are proposed. In this research, we also proposed long-term strategies which include community development, a blue-green infrastructure for sustainable development, and fostering collaboration among city planners, residents, and stakeholders to address future flood risks effectively.
In our report, we mentioned two theories of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and community resiliency to highlight the fact that a socially resilient society is one in which local communities and external actors learn from unexpected changes and transform towards enhancing resiliency at all levels of socio-ecological governance in time. Thus, being flexible and incremental is the key for the success of this process. In this incrementally contingency plan, we outlined the short-, medium-, and long-term strategies for reducing the risk of urban floods in the study area. We emphasized that in order to establish a resilient future, stakeholders must be analyzed and involved.
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Figure 1: Map of Trondheim City Center showing Nyhavna and the surrounding area. Source: authors.
Figure 2: Photo of Nyhavna in 1952. Source: Trondheim byarkiv by Schrøder, n.d. (https://nyhavna.no/om-oss/historien/)
Figure 3: The view to Trondheimsfjorden from the industrial area in Nyhavna. Source: Authors.
Figure 4: Nyhavna coastline as it is now, source:authors
Figure 5: The streets around the historical building at Nyhavna are not very pedestrian-friendly. Source: Authors.
Figure 6: The vehicles and delivery trucks placed at Nyhavna. Source: Authors.
Figure 7: Illustration plan of Transittkaia and Nyhavna Nature Reserve. Source: Grindaker & Gillhardi+Hellsten, 2022
Figure 8: Map of the estuary of Gaula and Nidelva. Source: Grindaker & Gillhardi+Hellsten, 2022
Figure 9: Illustration of Nyhavna as an active area. Source: Bogl, MAD Architects & Holt O’Brien, 2019
Figure 10: Illustration of the raised pathways in Nyhavna. Source: Bogl, MAD Architects & Holt O’Brien, 2019
Figure 11: Stormsurge in 2050. Source: Geoinnsyn, n.d.
Figure 12: Stormsurge in 2100. Source: Geoinnsyn, n.d.
Figure 13: Stormsurge in 2150. Source: Geoinnsyn, n.d.
Figure 14: Relevant actors and actions. Source: Authors.
Figure 15: Stakeholder relationship. Source: Author.s.
Figure 16: The level of power for the stakeholders. Source: Authors.
Figure 17: SWOT-analysis of Nyhavna. Source: Authors.
Figure 18: Resistance against flood risk structures with ecological and spatial impact Source: Nillesen, 2019.
Figure 19: Green infrastructure practices provide ecological, economic, and societal benefits that play a critical role in making coastal communities more resilient to natural hazards. Source: NOAA
Figure 20: Copenhagen Cloudburst project for urban resilience Source: Rambøll, n.d.
Figure 21: Urban ‘green’ infrastructure bolstering flood resilience Source: AgriLife, 2022
Figure 22: Model-simulated inundation at Alexandri
Figure 23: Comparison of hurricane storm surge, storm tide at Sewells Point, Hampton Roads, VA, in feet above 1983-2001 Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW).
Figure 24: Implementation Plan. Source: Authors.
Figure 25: Two alternatives of how the connection between water and land could be designed. Source: Grindaker & Gillhardi+Hellsten, 2022
Figure 26: Different surfaces inspired by the Gaula estuary. Source: Grindaker & Gillhardi+Hellsten, 2022
Figure 27: Operational Support Plan. Source: Authors.
Figure 28: Preparedness Plan. Source: Authors
Figure 29: Benefits and limitations with the measures. Source: Authors.
Figure 30: Budget of the measures. Source: Authors.
Figure 31: High-value assets of Nyhavna future development. Source: Authors.
